论文标题:中国粮食安全问题研究
Study on Chinese Cered Food Security
论文作者 阎耀军
论文导师 韩喜平,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 马克思主义理论与思想政治教育
论文单位 吉林大学,点击次数 101,论文页数 47页File Size301k
2004-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_1008185547/ 基金; 基金净值; 影响因素; 选时能力 ; 选股能力
Security Investment Fund;Net Value of Security Investment Fund;Influence Factor;Ability to select opportunity;Ability to select stocks
粮食安全内涵不断丰富。1974年11月联合国粮农组织（FAO）把粮食安全的概念定为：“保证任何人，在任何时候，都能得到为了生存和健康所需要的足够食物”。1983年4月（FAO）粮食安全委员会通过了“粮食安全”新概念：“确保所有的人们在任何时候，既能买得到又能买得起他们所需要的基本食物”。1996年11月《罗马宣言》把粮食安全表述为：“只有当所有人任何时候都能够在物质上和经济上获得足够、安全和富有营养的粮食，来满足其积极和健康的膳食需求及所喜好的食物，才实现了粮食安全”。2001年9月又提出了“粮食可持续安全”的概念，意指对环境无损害、无污染、对人体增强健康、延年益寿、粮食生产能力稳定提高是长久的粮食安全。 中国粮食安全具有特殊的内涵。它包含以下内容：一是保护好农民的粮食生产积极性。二是必须满足各类消费群体日益增长的粮食需要。三是必须生产和供应符合卫生质量标准的粮食和其他食物以确保居民的健康。四是立足粮食自给。五是做到粮食生产和环境、自然资源的协调发展。六是必须适应经济和粮食全球化的需要，积极利用两种资源、两个市场。为了更深一步理解粮食安全的内涵，我们必须澄清一些错误的认识。一是粮食越多越安全。二是粮食储备越多越保险。三是只要国家储备就平安无事。四是只要确保数量上安全就行。我国粮食安全的概念应该是国家具备可持续稳定增长的粮食生产能力，能保证人民日益增长的粮食需求。在特殊情况下，能够重点保证军需民用，以维护社会稳定和国家安全。粮食安全的重要性。粮食安全是我国经济建设发展的基本条件，是改革不断推进的重要保证。因为粮食的低价充足供给，保证了城乡社会的安定，实现了经济战略的大调整和开发中心的大转移。但是，近几年，我国粮食供求形式出现了新的矛盾。 美国世界观察所所长莱斯特???R?布朗博士认为，随着中国经济的高速增长，粮食需求的增加与供给恶化的矛盾日益尖锐，决定了21世纪的中国必将出现巨额粮食短缺。中国虽然有足够的外汇进口它所需要的粮食，但势必将减少技术输入。如果进口，谁也不能够提供这种规模的粮食。因此，一旦中国发生粮食危机，可能会使中国经济改革奇迹夭折。我国学者胡岳岷否定了布朗的观点，综合需求和供给等方面分析，他认为21世纪中国人完全可以养活自己。 现阶段我国粮食供求状况。1998年全国粮食作物播种面积达17.06亿亩，产量5123.0亿千克，创历史最高水平。但是，从1999年—2002年，我国粮食播种面积和粮食产量一直呈下降趋势。2003年我国粮食产量降到20世纪90年代以来最低点，为4300亿千克。2003年比1999年下降了15.4%。我国小麦、玉米、稻谷三大品种自1999年开始，连续三年出现减产，当年产不抵消，我国粮食供求关系正由供大于求向供不应求转变，但由于以前的粮食库存较大，在我国粮食市场上仍保持供求基本平衡的态势。 2004年—2030年中国粮食供需预测。未来粮食需求量的预测，必须考虑到全国人口及其城乡分布、食物结构改善等因素。粮食需求量，一般包括口粮、饲料粮、种子用粮、酿造及其它工业用粮。中国未来粮食需求量，2010年、2020年、2030年分别为5650亿千克、6198亿千克、6840亿千克。未来粮食供给量的预测，以2000年——2003年粮食平均产量为基数，按1.0%、1.2%、1.4%年增长速度预测，2004年——2030年的粮食生产量均不能满足粮食的需求，要做到供需总量平衡必须有相当数量的进口。即使保证1.4%的粮食增长速度，粮食缺口也非常大，粮食安全形势严峻。 我国粮食生产潜力。粮食作物单产潜力很大，化肥投入报酬仍有很大潜力，水资源的增产潜力还很大，减少水旱灾害粮食增产有潜力，利用非粮食食物资源有潜力。但也潜伏着诸多隐患。耕地数量、粮食播种面积锐减，水资源短缺，农业科技投入不足和技术发展方向偏离以及政策隐患。因此，我国粮食生产虽然潜力巨大，粮食有望实现正增长。但是，由于诸多不利因素影响，我国粮食增长速度不会太快，很难实现1.4%的增长速度。 经济全球化给我国粮食安全带来了机遇。粮食安全的成本降低，粮食安全的范围扩大，提高了我国粮食竞争力。但是，经济全球化也给我国粮食安全带来了风险。质优价廉的国外粮食进入中国市场，会使国内粮食价格下跌，农民收入减少，其结果会导致粮食种植面积减少，粮食产量下降；在粮食紧张时，国际粮食供给不稳定，甚至人为地制造供给危机，金钱不是万能的，尤其是涉及到国家安全问题时，更是如此；世界可养活很多国家，但半个中国也养活不起，如果打破像我们这样有13亿人口的大国的粮食自求基本平衡的格局将是危险的。 我国粮食进口的警戒线。粮食进口量不超过需求的5%，是完全没有问题的。进口率低于6%视为安全的“绿区”。粮食进口率在6%—10%之间，视为粮食进口的“黄区”。由于我国人口数量巨大，进口量超过10%，一方面要求国家增强外汇支付能力，势必减少经济建设投入，另一方面需要提高本国的运输、港口和仓储能力，因此，从我国实际出发，可以把10%视为粮食进口警戒线，超过10%直接危及国家粮食安全和我国经济建设。稳定和提高粮食生产能力，?
The connotation of food security has been continuously enriched. In November, 1974, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the united Nations defined it as ensuring that anyone can get enough foods that she or he needs to be alive and maintain her or his health at any time In April, 1983, the Food Security Committee of FAO passed a new concept of food security, ensuring that all human can both buy and afford to buy the basic foods that they need, In November,1996, the concept of food security in the Rome Declaration was described as that only can all human realize the food security at any time when they can obtain enough, safe, and nutritious foods materially and economically to satisfy their positive and healthful diet requirements and get their favourite foods. In September,2001, the concept of food sustainable security was put forward, It said,“The stable increase of production capacity of cereal grains, which are neither polluted nor harmful to environment, build up people’s health, and prolong human lives, is permanent food security.” Chinese Cereal Food Security has its special connotation. It contains the following contents:Carefully protect peasants’ enthusiasm of grain production. Meet all kinds of consumers’ ever-increasing requirements for foods.The cereal grains and other foods whose quality tallies with the hygienic quality standards must be produced and supplied to ensure residents’ health.Keep our feet on the self-supporting of cereal grains.Keep coordinated development of cereal production, environment, and natural resources.Adapt us to the requirements of economy and food globalisation to positively make use of two kinds of resources and two markets. In order to comprehend the connotation of food security, we must clarify some incorrect cognition. One wrong cognition is that the more foods we have, the safer we are; The second one is that the more cereal grains we store, the securer we are; Thirdly, we are safe and carefree as long as our country has stored cereal grains; Fourthly, it will do as long as we can ensure the food security in quantity. Our country’s food security concept should be that the nation has a sustainable increasing capacity to ensure the people’s ever-increasing requirements for grain to be met .In special situations, our nation can ensure the military provisions and civilian uses to maintain the social stability and our country’s security. The importance of cereal security. The cereal security is a basic condition for the development of our country’s economy, and it is also a significant assurance of continuous propelling our country’s reform. China has realized its great adjustment of the economy strategies and its great transition of the development centre. However, the new contradictions have emerged in the forms of grain supply and demand in recent years. Doctor Lester R. Brown, a chief observer from World Observation Institute in America, thinks that with the rapid increase of Chinese economy, the contradictions between the increasing requirements for foods and the worsened food supply are becoming increasingly acute, and they will undoubtedly lead to a great deficit of cereal grains in the last century. In his opinions, China has abundant foreign exchange to import the foods it needs, but it will be destined to decrease its technology imports. If china depended on food imports, any country in the world could not supply such a large quantity of foods. Therefore, if food crisis happened in china, the miracle of Chinese economic reform would come to premature end. However, Hu Yuemin, a Chinese scholar, rejects Brown’s points. Comprehensively analysing the aspects of grain supply and demand, he thinks that Chinese will absolutely support themselves.Present situations of grain supply and demand in China. In 1998,the whole country’s sowing area of cereal crops was 1.706 billion mu, the cereal yield was 512.3 billion kilograms, it made the highest record in Chinese history. Nevertheless, our country’s sowi
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