论文标题:陆上管线失效概率评估与软件系统研究
The Failure Probability Evaluation of a Continental Pipeline and Software System Research
论文作者 王文东
论文导师 陈永锋；邵必林,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 管理科学与工程
论文单位 西安建筑科技大学,点击次数 138,论文页数 66页File Size3338k
2005-06-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_1017682/ 管线;风险评估;失效概率;概率分析
Pipeline; Risk Evaluation; Failure Probability; Probability Analysis
目前,我国许多在役管线已进入老龄期。随着使用时间的延长和环境、介质的影响,管线缺陷不断恶化,造成管线失效概率上升,严重影响管线的安全运行。因此,对在役管线进行失效概率评估具有十分重要的意义。 本论文综合考虑了管线承受载荷、管材力学性能、缺陷扩展速率、管线损伤特征等随机特性,对与时间相关的六类事故因素分别建立了失效概率模型,这些模型一方面在一定程度上反映相关评估参数客观存在的不确定性,另一方面能准确得到失效概率,为定量描述管线概率风险提供了理论依据。 运用数值分析方法和新提出的概率模型,本论文给出计算管线失效概率的方法,并采用管线全线的失效概率分析方法对管线失效概率进行评估,最后用C#语言,开发了陆上管线失效概率评估系统。 综上所述,本论文系统的研究了管线的失效概率评估问题,并开发了陆上管线失效概率评估系统。本论文的研究成果对我国管线概率风险评估研究具有很好的参考价值。
At present, a lot of served pipelines of our country have already aged. With the extension in service time and influence of the environment, product, the defect of the pipeline is worsenning constantly, which causes the failure probability of the pipeline rising, and influences the safety of the pipeline seriously. So, it is very important of carrying on the failure probability assessment of pipeline.The thesis considers synthetically random characteristics which contains pipeline load , mechanics performance , defect expandence speed and pipeline damage characteristic ,etc, and sets up failure probability model of six accident factors correlated with time. On one hand, these models reflect objective uncertainty of assessing parameters , on the other hand., These models can gain failure probability of pipeline which offers the theoretical foundation for describing the probability risk of the pipeline quantitatively.Using probability numerical analysis method and probability model put forward newly, this thesis provides the failure probability calculating method of the pipeline, evaluates failure probability of the pipeline, and developes the Failure Probability Evaluation System of the Pipeline by C#.In sum , the thesis researches the evaluation problem in failure probability of the pipeline, and has developed the Failure Probability Evaluation System of the Pipeline ,which has reference value for studying pipeline probability risk evaluation of our country.
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