论文标题:人民币升值对中国贸易的影响
The Impact of Appreciating RMB on China"s Trade
论文作者
论文导师 张亚斌,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国际贸易学
论文单位 湖南大学,点击次数 362,论文页数 64页File Size1705K
2007-10-08论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_113275587/
RMB Exchange Rate;; Computable General Equilibrium Model;; China’s Trade
2005年7月我国进行汇率制度改革,此后对于人民币升值的关注集中于人民币升值的幅度以及各种幅度对我国经济的影响,尤其是人民币升值对我国贸易的影响。准确的判断人民币升值对我国的经济效应,并以此及时调整政策方向,推动产业结构以及经济结构的全面升级,这是当前的工作重点。本文通过建立中国可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型)定量研究了人民币升值对中国贸易的影响。CGE模型所具有的一般均衡框架能同时描述多个市场和结构的互相作用,可以估计某一特定变量变化所带来的直接或间接影响,以及对经济整体的全局性影响。文中假定人民币汇率分别以3%、5%、8%的不同幅度升值,通过CGE模型来观测升值结果,定量研究人民币升值对中国贸易的影响。结果表明:人民币升值引起进口增加,出口减少,出口减少的幅度大于进口增加的幅度,且升值对两者的影响均是非线性的;人民币升值对我国不同部门的进出口贸易的影响是不同的,其中制造业和能源受到的影响较大,农业、炼焦、煤气及石油加工业和机械设备制造业受到的出口贸易的影响甚微。基本结论是人民币升值不会给我国对外贸易带来较大的负面影响,但是应该避免一次性大幅度的升值。文章最后立足模型结果,并结合其他国家应对升值的政策经验,提出了自己的政策建议。
After the adjustment of RMB exchange rate In July 2005, the range of RMB Appreciation and the effect on China’economy, on China’s trade especially has been an important question. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) is constructed to evaluate quantitatively the impact of the revaluation of Chinese Renminbi on China’s economy. The CGE model constructed in the study is estimated using calibration procedure coupled with econometric estimation for key parameters. In the article, we assumptions the RMB appreciation3%,5%,8%. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) is constructed to evaluate quantitatively the impact of the revaluation of Chinese Renmibi (RMB) on China’s trade. The result indicated that the effect of appreciating RMB on the Chinese import and export is not linear form, and its impact on the import is good, but on the export is not good ;its effects on industrial sectors are quite different as well, especial on manufacturing and energy industry, its effects on industrial sectors are not quite different, especial on agriculture industry, coke making, coal gas petroleum manufacturing industry and machinery manufacturing . The general conclusion in this study is that appreciation of RMB is quite advantage on China’s trade. However, it will be wise to widen the change interval of RMB exchange rate . At last, based on the CGE model and the experiment of other countries, this paper made some advises.
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