论文标题:人民币汇率制度的选择研究
The Research on the Choice of RMB Exchange Rate System
论文作者 李彩虹
论文导师 曾令华,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融
论文单位 湖南大学,点击次数 124,论文页数 61页File Size3875k
2005-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_135810927/ 汇率制度;选择;爬行美元区间
exchange rate system; choice; crawling policy
汇率制度作为一国经济制度的重要组成部分,对于该国经济的增长和稳定具有十分重要的作用。随着中国加入WTO,金融业逐步对外开放,人民币汇率将面临更大的挑战,因此选择有利于我国经济健康稳定发展的汇率制度,对于防范金融风险具有特别重要的意义。 从1994年人民币汇率体制改革以后,我国实现了人民币经常帐户下的可自由兑换,名义上实行的是有管理的浮动汇率制度,但在实践中蜕变为一种变相的固定钉住汇率制度。对于象中国这样的对外依存度不断增加的大国经济,保持汇率固定(或者说是过度稳定)付出的成本是巨大的。现行结售汇制及汇率形成机制存在诸多弊端,削弱了货币政策的独立性,不利于外汇市场的深化和发挥汇率的市场调节作用,同时使中央银行的巨额外汇储备面临很大的汇率风险。随着中国金融开放进一步扩大,现行人民币汇率制度与货币政策有效性之间的矛盾也将日益突出,加快人民币汇率制度的改革已经刻不容缓。 本文在回顾汇率制度的基本理论的基础上,比较各种汇率制度的优劣,论述汇率制度选择的基本原则。同时通过研究影响汇率制度选择诸如经济规模、金融发展程度、经济开放程度及贸易格局等各种因素,笔者认为人民币汇率制度的选择既不能脱离开放经济日益发展的经济大格局,也不能忽视我国过渡型经济的现状,而应该综合考虑多方利益,渐进地改革人民币汇率制度。即近期可采取人民币钉住一篮子货币的过渡策略,中期则实行对美元爬行区间。随着中国资本项目的逐步开放和货币调控能力的提高,最终实行真正的有管理的浮动汇率制。
As an important part of economic system, the exchange rate system is of great importance to the growth and stability of the national economy. With China joining WTO and the financial industry opening gradually, RMB exchange rate system is confronted with great challenges .So it is of particular significance for us to choose proper exchange rate system that benefits the healthy and stable development our country"s economy against financial risks .Since the reform of RMB exchange rate system in 1994,China has realized the exchange in RMB current account .It comes out managing and floating exchange rate system nominally, however it is changed into a fixed exchange rate system in practice. It costs too much for China to do so, because Chinese economy depends on other countries increasingly. There are many drawbacks in the current closing and selling system of fore ign exchange and the formation mechanism of exchange rate, for instance they weaken the independence of monetary policy, do bad to the deepening of foreign exchange market and the market adjusting function of the exchange rate and face the enormous foreign exchange reserve of the Central Bank with great exchange rate risk .The conflict between the current RMB exchange rate system and the validity of monetary policy will be more prominent in the further opening of Chinese finance .So it is an urgent task to quicken the tempo of RMB exchange rate system reform.Based on the basic theories of the exchange rate system thesis compares the advantages and disadvantages of various exchange rate system and discusses the basic principles of the choice of exchange rate system. Meanwhile by studying such factors influencing the choice as the scale of economy, the extent of financial development, degree of economic opening and the structure of trade ,I think that the choice of RMB exchange rate system can neither lose contact with the opening economic structure that develops increasing nor overlook the current situation of our country"s transactional economy and that we should consider the comprehensive interests and reform RMB exchange rate system gradually that is ,we may take transitional policy that RMB is fixed on a basket of currencies in the near future ,carry out the crawling policy in the medium term and implement the real managing and floating exchange rate system finally with the progressive opening of Chinese capital items and theimprovement of the ability monetary adjustment and control.
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