论文标题:急性高原病易感人群预测模型、方法研究
Research on Predict Model and Method of Acute Mountain Sickness Susceptible Herd
论文作者 郑然
论文导师 周世伟,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 后方专业勤务
论文单位 第三军医大学,点击次数 165,论文页数 88页File Size3084k
2002-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_144380117/ 急性高原病,易感人群,预测,模型方法
AMS,Susceptible Herd,Predict,Model Method
急进高原时，无论是从平原进入高原，还是从低海拔区进入高海拔区，人群中不可避免的要出现“急性高原病”（acute mountain sickness, AMS）。据资料报道，部队急进高原时AMS发病率很高，往往造成大量非战斗减员。许多研究指出，人群中的确存在着AMS易感人群，因此，如果能对其进行预测、筛选，避免易感者进入高原，可以从“源头”上控制AMS发生的人群基数，是减少AMS发生的一个实用、有效和经济的方法。本课题着眼大部队急进高原，在以往“硬科学”（高原医学等）研究基础上，采取“软科学”方法，对现有研究成果进行分析、评价和系统综合，建立一个简便、高效、准确的AMS易感人群预测体系，构建AMS易感人群预测模型，形成适于大部队急进高原，具有可操作性的AMS易感人群预测方案，将高原医学研究成果转化成现实高原卫勤保障能力。本课题首先对AMS易感人群进行了科学的定义。通过文献调研和高原现场实地调查，系统整理了现有的AMS易感人群预测指标。在此基础上，运用系统分析、专家咨询法、AHP方法对AMS易感人群预测指标进行了筛选，根据目标一致性原则、客观可靠性原则、直接可测性原则、简单易行性原则和动态发展性原则，建立了AMS易感人群预测指标体系，并科学地确定了指标权重和指标体系权集。之后，根据综合预测数学模型基本原理和模型方法，结合AMS易感人群预测实际，选用了加权线性综合法，建立了《急性高原病易感人群预测模型》。在模型的实证研究中，通过Kappa值法，对一组60名青年战士的预测结果与实际发病情况进行了验证，取得相当满意的一致程度（Kappa值≈0.86＞0.75）。最后，拟定了《大部队急进高原急性高原病易感人群预测方案》，并利用计算机技术，实现数据的采集、计算和评价的自动化。
Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS) is a great threat for people moving from plain area to plateau or from low altitude to high altitude in high speed. Related report indicates that AMS incidence rate is significantly high in plateau high-speed moving troops and much nonbattle loss in manpower was caused. Study shows Acute Mountain Sickness susceptible herd exists. Research on the predicting and screening of Susceptible Herd is a helpful efficient and economic method in avoiding the Susceptible Herd onto plateau and controlling the happening of AMS.In this research, based on research achievements of high-altitude medicine, "soft science" method was used to analyze, evaluate and systematic colligate the present research achievements so as to establish a simple, high-efficient and accurate predict index system and predict model of AMS susceptible herd, build practical measures to change basic high altitude medicine research into high altitude health service capability.In this paper, "acute mountain sickness susceptible herd" was scientifically defined, predict index system was put forward through literature survey and plateau spot investigation. The indexes were selected by using System Analysis, Specialist Consultation and AHP methods. According to doctrines of object concordance, objective reliability, direct measurability, easy operation and dynamic development, AMS susceptible herd predict index system was established, index weight and weight collection were scientificallybuilt. On the basis of the basic theory of comprehensive predict mathematical model and the fact of AMS susceptible herd predict, predict model of AMS susceptible herd was established by using Line weight-adding linearity synthetic method. In the evidence-proving research, the predict result in a group of 60 young soldiers was verified comparing with the true episode condition by Kappa Tite Method, the concordance was quite satisfying(Kappa Tite≈0.86＞0.75).In conclusion, the tentative Predict Project of AMS Susceptible Herd in Plateau High-speed Moving Troops was formed. In the Predict Project, compute technology was applied to realize the automatization of data collection, calculation and evaluation.
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