论文标题:人口流动下的城乡社会保障制度研究
Industrial Analyzing Towards the Causes and Functions and Mechanism of International Capital Flow
论文作者 王建华
论文导师 彭希哲,论文学位 博士,论文专业 人口、资源与环境经济学
论文单位 复旦大学,点击次数 146,论文页数 163页File Size821k
2003-04-30论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_144808387/ 流动人口;社会保障;制度构建;城镇和农村;上海
floating population; social security system arrangement; urban and rural areas; Shanghai
本文选择了人们广泛关注的命题，把流动人口作为影响城乡社会保障制度的一个重要变量，通过深入分析人口流动中两栖效应对城乡社会保障制度的影响，考察流动人口的社会保障问题，并据此扩展社会保障的理论内涵和延伸社会保障的制度功能。人口流动是城市化、现代化的一个重要过程，城市就业机会多和劳动收入高对农村剩余劳动力有着巨大吸引力；农业生产率的提高和农村剩余劳动力增加导致人口外溢。上述力量的共同作用，决定了人口流动的主要动因和主导流向。我国流动人口数量大是由于二元结构下的城乡收入存在显著差别，而且农村劳动力有大量剩余。在计划经济下，人口流动受到各种政策的严格限制，流动数量极其有限。现在各种限制性政策有所松动，但受制于城市户籍、就业和社会保障等对城市居民的“保护性”政策影响，进入城市的农村流动人口表现出边缘化特征。城乡社会保障制度安排偏差的核心源于产权——城市保障资源的优先分割权和占有权。本文通过对上海外来劳动力就业特征和就业行业分布情况分析，发现城市劳动力就业岗位与农村劳动力的非重合性、互补性，导致了外来人口不断地涌向上海，构成了城乡劳动力替代的基础。在对上海进行实证研究的基础上，指出流动人口对社会保障制度有以下几方面的影响：对流入地上海而言，由于外来流动人口年龄构成轻，增加了上海的社会保障资源，在一定程度上缓解了上海的社会保障压力。在定量分析上海市常住人口和外来人口年龄结构特征的基础上，预测未来人口规模与年龄结构的发展趋势，并介入不同流量的外来流入人口，观察其对未来人口规模和年龄结构对上海社会保障产生的替代效应。对流出地而言，农村大量轻壮年劳动力流出加剧了农村老龄化程度，拉大了农村老年人口与子女生活的空间距离，使家庭保障功能逐步弱化。但同时流动人口逐渐摆脱依靠土地资源获取收益的单一渠道，收入明显高于农村，部分收入的回流和流出者返乡，增加了农村保障资源，有助于农村社会保障制度的建立和完善。对流动人口本身而言，流动人口所遇到的风险主要是一种与市场经济和工业化相适应的现代风险，流动人口使城乡保障功能不足显性化，同时，诱发不同人群新的保障需求。因此，流动人口是影响城乡社会保障的重要变量，是城乡社会保障制度有机衔接的载体，可以通过他们来构筑城乡统一的、多层次的、适用不同对象需求的社会保障制度。而构筑这一制度必须对现有制度进行改革，比如在养老保险领域，一方面应该加快以现收现付制为主的模式向积累制为主的混合制模式转变；另一方面应当完善土地流转市场，以实现社会保障对土地保障功能的替代。在制度构建部分，本文针对我国地区发展差异进行分析，应用聚类分析方法，提出在城乡社会保障统一制度的分层目标。流动人口纳入城镇社会保障体系要与其收入水平相适应，城市的流动人口可以先期选择养老、医疗和工伤保险；农村应该加快养老保险、合作医疗、农村最低生活保障等项社会保障制度建设。应以居民身份证为基础推行社会保障卡，实行“一卡化”的社会化管理，实现社会保障帐户在不同标准下进行累加、换算，以及跨地区接转关系。
Taking the floating population as an important variable which influences the social security system, this paper selects a topic of extensive attention in order to find a suitable way to establish social security for the floating population, to broaden the connotation of social security in theory and to extend the function of the social security system.Population migration is an important phenomenon of urbanization and modernization which is pushed by the following two major forces: On the one hand, rural labor surplus is attracted by more chances of employment and higher income in cities; on the other hand, improvement of agriculture productivity leads to population outflow from the rural areas. Large quantity of labor surplus in rural China leads to a very large amount of floating population and there is a great difference as for the incomes of urban and rural areas in the dual society. In the planned economy era, population migration is strictly restricted. Although some restrictive policies have become moderate, other biased policies, such as household registration, employment segregation, and social security system discrimination still exist, which force the rural immigrants to the margin of the society. At the same time, such huge scale of floating population has impact on many aspects of existing institutional arrangements of our society, one of which is the social security system. Through the analysis of the features and the distribution of the rural immigrants who are employed in Shanghai, we find that what the rural labor do does not coincide with those taken by urban labor, which is the base for labor substitution. The effects of the floating population to the social security system are manifested in the following aspects.Firstly, because the age structure of the floating population is considerably young, and young people as a whole are contributors of the social security funds, which adds to the resource of the social security of the destination area. Based on the analysis of age structureof both the local inhabitants and immigrants in Shanghai, it sets forth a forecast of its population scale and the trend of age structure change. Furthermore, a model is introduced to show the impacts of different rates of inflow to Shanghai"s population scale and age structure in the future. Secondly, the outflow of young labor from the rural areas aggravates the aging of population in these regions, and enlarges the distances of generation gap which weakens the risk-averting function of the family. But on the other hand, because the floating population no longer relies only on the land for their income, they can get better paid. The back flow of part of these incomes and the return of some immigrants increase the security resources in rural areas, which contributes to the development of rural social security system in these regions.Thirdly, the floating population who is exposed to the risks of market economy is excluded by any security systems. Therefore, the floating population needs a new security provision. So the floating population is an important variable that influences the urban-rural social security system, it is the carrier connecting the urban and rural system that makes it possible to establish an integrated, multi-layer social security system to meet the demands of different groups of people. Establishing such a new system involves reforms of some old institutional arrangement. Taking the pension system for example, current pay-as-you-go approach should be changed to the mixed system dominated by accumulation of individual account. And land-allocation transformation should also be facilitated to carry out the substitution of social security to the land security.Based on the case study of Shanghai, it puts forward the following suggestions: a multi-layer urban-rural social security system should be set up, that is to say, the floating population be integrated into the urban social security system, but considering their income standard, old-age insurance, medical insuran
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