论文标题:中国转型时期的人口流动
Migration of China in Transition
论文作者
论文导师 赖小琼,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 政治经济学
论文单位 厦门大学,点击次数 58,论文页数 58页File Size1143K
2007-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_155788017/
Migration;; Double-logarithmic Model of Migration;; Economic Development
改革开放以来,特别是80年代中后期以来,中国人口流动数量逐年增长,已经成为社会各界共同关注的一大现象。中国人口基数大,农村人口在总人口中占有绝对比重,农村中存在大量的剩余劳动力需要转移。中国人口流动总体上来说是制度变迁和经济转型共同作用的结果,户籍制度的改革以及政府对人口自由流动管制的放松是导致人口流动数量增长的直接原因;然而,地区和城乡收入差距则是人口大规模流动的更深层次原因。从历次人口普查和人口抽样调查的结果来看中国人口流动规模越来越大,流动的方向基本上是由农村流向城市,由中西部欠发达地区流向东部经济发达地区。由于传统习惯习俗、户籍制度和劳动力市场歧视政策的影响,使得中国的人口流动还呈现出一种钟摆式的流动方式。 本文应用Fields的双对数模型结合第五次全国人口普查数据分析人口流动的影响因素。结果发现影响人口流动因素有很多:如人口流出地和流入地的收入差距,人口规模,人口密度,流入地失业率,流出地的人均耕地面积,各地的高校招生比等等。在分析了影响人口的各种因素之后,本文还就人口流动对社会经济的影响进行了讨论。结果发现人口流动对经济发展有着反两方面的影响。正面影响方面,人口流动为流入地提供了丰富廉价的劳动力资源同时也改善人口流出地人地矛盾和提高流出地居民的经济收入。反面影响方面,人口的大量涌入给流入地的基础设施和城市管理带来巨大压力,也给部分地区的农业生产带来负面影响。总体来说人口流动对社会经济的正面影响大于其负面影响,它有利于中国经济由二元经济结构向一元经济结构转变。 本文的创新之处在于: 一、以省际人口流动为例应用双对数模型对人口流动进行实证分析。在选取解释变量时,考虑了中国的实际情况,如引入了乡镇企业比重、高考招生比率、人口规模等变量。 二、本文就人口流动对经济社会的影响这一问题,以深圳市为例进行了定量分析。而以往的文章在分析这一问题是多为定性分析。
Since China carried out reform and opening policy, the migration in China has increased yearly, particularly in the late 1980s, which became a significant focus concerned by the public. China has a large number of population, rural population are absolute majority. There are numerous surplus labors to transfer in the countryside. Generally, the migration of China is result from institutional changes and the economy transformation. The reforming on household registration system(hukou) and the freedom on migration regulation directly lead to the increasing of migration. However, the deep reason for the large-scale migration arisen from the income gap between rural areas and urban areas, and the income gap between different regions. In term of the past population census and one percent population sample surveys, the size of migration population in China became larger and larger. The direction of migration is basically from rural to urban, from western developing districts to eastern developed districts. Because of traditional conventions, household registration system and the discrimination policies on labor market, the migration in China appear to the pattern of pendulum. This Article used double-logarithmic model of migration to analyze reasons of the migration. It is found that there are many factors which make people move from one place to another, such as: the income gap between the origin and the destination, the number of population, the density of population, the unemployment rate, per capital of cultivated land, enrollment ratio of college, etc. Migration has both positive and negative influence on social economy. On the positive aspect, migration provides sufficient and low-priced labor force for the destination improves the contradiction between people and land in the origin and increases the income of residents in origin. On the negative aspect, the immigrate of large number of people brings huge pressure to fundamental facilities and the municipal management, also influence the agricultural output in some district negatively. But the positive effect of migration on economic and social development gains an advantage over negative effect. Migration has contribute to the change of China’s dual economy. There are some difference between my article and other’s article: 1.The article used double-logarithmic model of migration to analyze reasons of interprovincial migration, basing on the fifth population census. When choosing independent variable, I considered the fact of China. For example, I put the ratio of output value of township enterprises, enrollment ratio of college, the number of population into the model. 2. The article use the method of quantitive analysis about effects of migration on economic and social development taking Shenzhen for example. Previously, many article use the method of qualitative analysis.
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