论文标题:中美进出口贸易影响因素的定量分析
论文作者
论文导师 赵进文,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 统计学
论文单位 东北财经大学,点击次数 827,论文页数 68页File Size3261K
论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_1665772/
The Import and Export between China and America;; Impact Factor;; Exchange Rate;; Cointegration;; Error Correction Model (ECM)
在过去的三十年里，在经济全球化的不断深入发展、中美经济本身具有的互补性特征、美国跨国公司对华直接投资以及中国加入世界贸易组织等作用下，中美经贸关系取得了突飞猛进的发展。但是在各种因素的影响下，这种发展也并不顺利。在影响中美经贸关系的各种因素中，既有经济方面的因素，也有政治、军事、文化方面的因素。本文首先从经济方面着手，利用E-G两步法和ECM误差修正模型对收集的指标作协整回归分析，从而确定影响中美贸易的经济影响因素；然后再分析影响中美经贸关系的非经济因素，如政治制度、意识形态、统计标准、两国战略关系等以及美国对华高技术出口管制、通过知识产权、配额限制等手段对中国施加限制等。这些因素不仅造成了中美贸易的严重失衡，而且阻碍了中美经贸关系的发展；最后本文将针对以上的分析结果提出有利于改善两国经济贸易关系的政策建议及解决方案。 中美两国作为全球两大经济体，如果能够保持良好稳定的经贸关系，则不仅符合双方的根本利益，而且也有利于世界经济的平稳发展。因此，为了使中美经贸关系持续健康发展，有必要深入研究中美贸易逆差的结构特点、规模、成因、影响等，从而使双方都可以客观看待这一问题，缓和中美两国之间的摩擦。这也正是本文研究的理论意义所在。 要指出的是，本文在选取指标时，尽可能地将那些影响中美贸易的经济因素纳入到体系中来，除了其他学者所研究到的汇率、两国的经济水平、价格指数等，还在误差修正模型中引入了外商直接投资这个指标，另外对时间序列指标采用的是季度数据，这样可以增加样本容量；其次，在对数据的处理上较为严密，特别是对消费者价格指数CPI，采用的是定基环比数据，处理方式相当复杂，这些将在正文中体现出来。另外，本文还分别对出口、进口的名义值和实际值作分析，即要作四部分的分析，得出的结果反映了不同方面的经济现象。
In the past 30 years, under the continuous development of economic globalization, the complementation characteristic between China and America economic, the direct investment from American multinational company to China, and after China joining into WTO, the development of economic trade relationship between China and America advanced rapidly. But this kind of development influenced by various factors wasn"t smooth. There are factors of economy as well as polity, military affairs, culture, and so on. This dissertation begins from the economic aspect. Making use of E-G two stage method and ECM(error correction model), it analyzes the index collected, then accordingly confirms the impact factors of economy. Then it analyzes the non-economic factors which influence the economic trade relationship between China and America, such as political system, different ideology, statistical standard, strategy relation of two countries. Besides these ones, America controls the export of high technique to China severely, and limits Chinese activity through intellectual property rights and quota restriction, etc. These factors not only destruct the US-China balance of economic trade seriously, but also obstruct the development of economic trade relationship. Finally the dissertation puts forward policy suggestions and solution which is advantageous to improving economic trade relationship of two countries as a result. China and America are two greatest economies in the world. Keeping a good and stable economic trade relationship, not only accords with both parties" basic benefits, but also benefits the steady development of world economy. Therefore, for making the economic trade relationship of China and America develop continuously and healthily, it is necessary to research the structure characteristics, scale, causation, influence of unbalance between two countries, etc, consequently to make both parties treat this problem objectively, relax the friction of two countries. This is exactly the theories meaning of this dissertation. To be pointed out, while selecting index, this dissertation brings the economic factors which influence the economic trade relationship of two countries into the system as more as possible, and it adopts data of quarter degree to increase sample capacity. In addition to the exchange rate between two countries, economic development level and price index of two countries studied by other scholars, we lead foreign direct investment(FDI) into the error correction model. In addition, it is strict on dealing with the times data. Especially disposing the consumer price index (CPI) is very complicated. The content will appear in the body of the dissertation. What"s more, this dissertation analyzes the nominal and real value of import and export. It means that we will make four parts analysis. The results reflect economic phenomenon from different aspects.
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