论文标题:人民币升值对我国对外贸易的影响
The Effects of RMB Appreciation on China"s Foreign Trade
论文作者
论文导师 李俊江,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国际贸易学
论文单位 吉林大学,点击次数 297,论文页数 54页File Size689K
2006-10-25论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_178624662/
人民币升值问题近两年来一直是经济学界争论的焦点之一。2005年7月21日19日中国中央银行宣布,人民币汇率上升2%,并且我国开始实行以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节,有管理的浮动汇率制度。传统理论认为汇率上升会对一国对外贸易产生不良影响,使出口减少。本文通过对升值后我国贸易量变化及我国贸易结构的分析,借鉴日元升值的经验,对人民币升值对于我国贸易结构调整的积极作用展开研究。 第一部分回顾了日元升值的背景和概况,分析了日元三次升值对日本贸易的影响及其对日本贸易结构升级的推动作用。并且对中日两国的国情作了比较,为正确借鉴日本经验作铺垫。 第二部分对我国2005年及2006年的进出口贸易额,我国与主要贸易伙伴国之间的贸易额作了分析,表明人民币升值对我国的对外贸易并没有造成严重的不良影响。 第三部分从我国的进出口商品结构分析了人民币升值对我国的对外贸易没有造成严重的不良影响的原因,并进一步分析了目前我国同主要贸易伙伴国之间的关系,表明目前人民币的小幅升值不会进一步对我国的对外贸易造成不良影响。 第四部分着重分析汇率上升对贸易结构调整的积极作用,在人民币升值的趋势下,为我国以人民币升值为契机,积极调整贸易结构,改善贸易环境提出政策建议。
RMB appreciation has been the focus of debate in economic field the past few years. Many scholars have made different forecasts on the affect that RMB appreciation made on the development of China"s foreign trade .And the advantages and disadvantages of the RMB appreciation caused controversy.On July 21, 2005 China"s central bank announced that the yuan be appreciated by nearly 2 percent against the US dollar.And the yuan to US dollar pegging system is switched to a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of foreign currencies.During the past one year, the impact of RMB appreciation on China"s foreign trade has been reflected in reality.Based on the analysis of the change of China"s trade and the analysis of China"s trade structure,the article studied the experience from the appreciation of the yen,and made study on China"s tradestructure adjustment. At last we drew the conclusion that slow,moderate appreciation on the RMB will upgrade China"s trade structure in long run. The first part of the article recalled the background and the process of the appreciation of the yen.And made analysis on the affect that the appreciation of the yen had made on Japan"s trade as well as on the promotion that the appreciation of the yen had made on Japan’s trade structure. And compared the conditions of China and Japan.In the 1970s and the 1980s, the Japanese economy has been developing rapidly, expanding trade surplus with the United States.And has caused the Japan-U.S. trade friction during several years. The
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