论文标题:中国金融发展对经济增长影响的实证研究
Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in China
论文作者
论文导师 王金佑,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 江西财经大学,点击次数 302,论文页数 46页File Size2641K
2006-10-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_1821162/
Financial Development ; Economic Growth ; Empirical analysis
金融是现代经济社会的核心，金融发展对经济增长有特殊的作用和意义。处于转型时期的我国经济要实现持续、健康快速发展，必须正确把握金融发展与经济增长的关系，建立与经济快速增长相适应的现代金融体系，这关系着金融体制改革乃至整个经济体制改革的成败。 本文利用1980-2005年的经济增长和金融发展的数据，采用Beck等(2000)的金融发展与经济增长的因素分析方法，实证检验了我国金融发展对经济增长的影响，为确定今后金融发展方向和发展重点次序提供参考。 本文论述分为五部分。 第一部分为引言，主要介绍了选题的背景和国内外有关文献研究情况，提出了本文研究的基本思路和研究意义。 第二部分对金融发展与经济增长的理论进行梳理和回顾。主要阐述了经济增长理论中的“古典增长理论”、“哈罗德-多马经济增长模式”、“新古典增长理论”和“新增长理论”，以及金融发展理论中的“戈德史密斯的金融发展理论”、“麦金农和肖的金融深化理论”、“赫尔曼等的金融约束论”。 第三部分对金融发展与经济增长相互作用的机制进行分析，明确金融发展是通过作用于经济增长的决定因素而间接影响经济增长的，即金融体系主要通过提高储蓄率，促进储蓄向投资的转化和提高资本边际生产率三个途径影响经济增长。 第四部分是本文的实证研究部分。在前部分理论分析金融发展对经济增长作用途径的基础上，将引起经济增长的因素分为量(储蓄、投资、资本积累)和质(投资效率、TFP)两类，运用1980-2005年的数据实证分析中国金融发展与经济增长的关系。实证分析包括金融发展与经济增长两者的标准格兰杰因果关系检验以及金融发展与储蓄、投资和资本积累的关系，金融发展与资本边际生产率和全要素生产率的关系，金融发展与经济增长率之间的回归分析。 第五部分是本文的研究结论和政策建议。针对实证研究结果进行解释，指出金融发展对经济增长的质和量的因素产生不同影响的原因。最后，提出在我国已经较为完善的金融体系的情况下，推进金融市场化改革，促进金融机构竞争，提高金融体系配置资源的效率是今后金融发展的主要任务。
The finance is the core of modern economy, the financial development has the special function and the significance to the economical development. For China"s economy in transitional time to develop continuously and healthy, the relation between financial development and economic growth should be understood correctly, and modern financial system fitting to rapid economic growth should be constructed, it is crucial to the success of the reform of financial and economic system.We classify the sources of growth into two categories, one is quantity factors consisted of saving, investment and capital accumulation, another is quality factors consisted of investment efficiency and TFP. We have an empirical analysis of relationship between China"s financial development and the sources of growth using the data from 1978 to 2000. Then it will help us find some ways to solve the problem.The paper consists of five parts altogether.The first chapter is introduction. Explaining on the main topics of the theory background, then the research orientation and its implications are raised.The second chapter introduces the theories of economic development and financial development. It has combed the traditional theory of classic growth, the growth model of Domar, and so on. Then explaining on the theory of financial development, including finance deepened theory, financial restrict theory, and the latest financial development theory.The third chapter analysis interaction Mechanism that the impact of financial development on economic growth. It lies on three aspects: raise saving rate, the ratio of investment and capital marginal productivity. Furthermore, it is discussed that saving and capital marginal productivity are the sources of growth.The fourth chapter is the content of empirical study. Base on the work of this paper, classified the sources of growth into two categories, one is quantity factors consisted of saving, investment and capital accumulation, another is quality factors consisted of investment efficiency and TFP. Using Granger causality tests the relation between financial development and economic growth, then econometric analyzed how to influent economic growth through financial development.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestions. According to
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