论文标题:中小城市交通需求预测模型研究
Research on Traffic Demand Forecasting Model of Small & Middle City
论文作者
论文导师 吴中,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 交通运输规划与管理
论文单位 河海大学,点击次数 79,论文页数 82页File Size4179k
2006-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_197129337/
urban transportation planning;transportation requirement;forecasting model;
城市交通需求预测是城市交通规划的基础,是确定城市道路交通网络结构布局、容量与主要干道布置沿向的重要依据,其模型与算法的精度水平直接制约着城市交通网络规划的合理程度与科学水平,乃至于会影响到整个城市未来社会经济的发展和人民生活的改善。如何客观、科学地进行交通需求预测,是当前我国城市交通规划中共同面临的课题。论文在系统分析城市交通规划交通需求预测方法研究现状的基础上,针对当前普遍使用的“四阶段”预测方法的不足,较全面地研究了城市交通规划交通需求预测模型。城市土地利用是城市交通需求的根源。一般来说,不同的土地利用布局、不同的土地利用性质和不同的土地利用强度,对应着不同的交通需求。因此,建立土地利用与交通生成的相互关系模型,实现土地利用—出行生成相关因素—交通需求的三步式预测方法向土地利用—交通需求两步式预测方法的过渡,将在大大简化交通需求预测过程的同时提高预测结果的可靠性。居民出行心理分析表明,出行方式与出行距离之间存在着密切的关系。近距离出行以步行、自行车等非机动化出行方式为主,随着出行距离的增加,机动化出行方式比例逐渐上升、非机动化出行方式比例逐渐下降。故本文以出行距离为交通出行方式的划分依据,结合TRANSTAR、TRANSCAD交通软件分别进行交通分布预测和交通分配预测的计算。本文结合宝应县城交通的特点,建立了城市交通规划交通需求预测模型与算法。
The forecasting of urban traffic demand, which is an important way to determine the overall arrangement capacity, the heading of main roads of urban transportation network, is the base of urban traffic plan, the model and precision level of arithmetic not only determine whether the network plan is reasonable and scientifically ,,but also play an role in the economical development of the future society and the improvement of living condition. How to predict the traffic demand scientifically and impersonally is a topic we have to face together in the traffic plan. Based on the systemic analysis of urban traffic demanding prediction methods, this paper aim at the shortcomings of "the four phases" and study the prediction model of urban traffic programming all sided. The urban land use is the source of urban traffic demand. Generally speaking, the traffic demand varies according to the different layout, the kind and intensity of land use. The model which can reflect the close relationship between the land use and the traffic creation will simplify the process of the traffic creation prediction as well as the reliability of the experimental result. It is said that there is close relationship between the way of outgoing and the distance of outgoing. When the distance is short, people will go out on foot. With the distance increasing, the ratio of mechanization of outgoing will rise, and vice versa. According to this theory, this paper calculates the prediction of traffic distribution and assignment with the aid of TRANSTAR, TRANSCAD. In order to confirm the traffic plan and traffic demand model and arithmetic, the cases of the city of bao ying is cited.
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