论文标题:交通需求管理政策对城市交通结构的影响研究
Study on the Influence of the TDM Policies on Urban Transportation Structure
论文作者
论文导师 朱晓宁,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 交通运输规划与管理
论文单位 北京交通大学,点击次数 50,论文页数 69页File Size5614K
2008-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_198840522/
Urban Traffic Structure;; Mode Choice;; Transportation Demand Management;; Multinomial Logit Model;; Disaggregate Model
随着大城市交通问题的日益严峻,合理调整城市交通结构已经成为解决交通问题的有效方法之一。本论文所指的交通结构即城市交通出行结构,它是居民出行方式选择的反映,受交通政策制定和实旌的影响。因此,研究城市交通政策对客运交通结构调整的影响,建立相应的出行方式选择模型,进行理论分析和实际应用研究,将具有重要的理论和实践意义。 本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,从我国城市客运交通结构现状和居民出行行为影响因素的分析入手,探讨了城市交通政策与交通结构、交通结构与居民出行方式选择之间的关系,研究了实施交通需求管理政策对城市交通结构的影响。以非集计模型理论为基础,将政策因素设为一个变量放入模型,建立了交通方式选择ML模型,并用SPSS的Multinomial Logistic Regression模块进行参数的标定。以北京奥运会综合测试赛为研究背景,运用平日及TDM实施背景下的居民出行调查数据,通过分析和处理,对比得出不同措施背景下居民出行方式选择行为的变化。 研究表明,非集计ML模型从微观上较好的体现了交通需求管理政策的实施对城市居民出行方式选择的影响,具有一定的可操作性和实用性;交通需求管理政策能够很好的实现对居民出行行为的调整,并最终优化城市客运交通结构,它将成为未来各城市特别是发展中城市交通政策制定的重要参考和发展趋势。
With the traffic problems become more and more serious, balance the urban traffic structure is one of the keys of the transportation problem. The urban traffic structure referred to the paper is the urban transportation trip structure which is reflected by the passenger traffic mode choosing and impacted by the transportation policy formulation and implementation. Therefore, it is has a great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of transport policies on balancing the urban traffic structure and establish appropriate mode choice model. In the paper, the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis is combined. The status quo of urban passenger traffic structure and the influent factors of the residents" choice for trip mode were analyzed. Focused on the relationships between the urban transport policies, traffic structure and residents" mode choice, the influence of transportation demand management (TDM) on traffic structure was discussed. Based on the theory of disaggregating modeling, ML model was established with the policy factor joined as a variable, and the parameters were calibrated by SPSS Multinomial Logistic Regression. Against the research background of Beijing Olympic Comprehensive Test, data from normal and TDM implementing days surveys was analyzed and contrasted to conclude that the residents mode choose will be changed under the different measures implementation. Research shows that the disaggregate model which is more feasible and practical could reflect the implementation for transportation demand management policy well from a microcosmic. TDM policy can achieve the goal of residents" travel behavior adjustment and finally optimize the urban passenger transport structure. It will become the most important reference for policy formulation and development trends for future cities, especially the developing cities.
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