论文标题:人民币汇率制度研究——兼评人民币升值问题
Study on the Exemption System of Antitrust Law
论文作者 吴文斌
论文导师 杨俊龙,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 政治经济学
论文单位 安徽大学,点击次数 215,论文页数 52页File Size2570k
2004-10-10论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_216772907/ 人民币;汇率;研究
Renminbi; exchange rate; research
近年来，尽管美、日、欧三大经济体以及全球经济持续低迷，但我国外资大量流入，外贸持续盈余，外汇储备快速增加，国民经济高速增长，人民币贬值预期逆转为人民币升值预期。然而，全球经济低迷与中国经济强劲增长的巨大反差使“中国因素”凸现为世界经济的热点，而人民币汇率作为开放经济中对外联系的纽带，更是热点中的热点。 人民币汇率之所以成为国际社会的热点问题之一，除政治、经济的因素外，与人民币汇率制度有着密切的关系。由于各项管制的存在，汇率水平的确有可能偏离真实有效的汇率，无法真实地反映外汇供求关系。人民币汇率既非完全意义上的固定汇率制，也非真正意义的浮动汇率，而是政府根据市场变动和其它社会、经济因素相机抉择的有限浮动的汇率制度。 本文拟就人民币汇率制度进行一些讨论，探讨人民币汇率制度的改革方向。并在此基础上分析人民币汇率升值问题。全文共分五章：第一章介绍汇率的概念和汇率制度的有关理论；第二章回顾国际汇率制度与人民币汇率制度的变迁历史；第三章探讨现行人民币汇率制度存在的问题；第四章研究人民币汇率制度的改革取向；第五章分析人民币升值问题。最后，文章指出，我国应通过对三难定理的有限度的修正，达到在货币政策独立性得到尊重、资本账户逐步开放条件下的人民币汇率较为自由的浮动，通过帕累托改进实现人民币汇率制度科学性的不断提高。
Recently, America, Japan, Europe and the world economy have been on the decline, but in China, foreign capital inflows in great amounts, foreign trade keeps continuous surplus, foreign reserve rapidly increases, national economy rises at top speed, and Renminbi appreciation anticipation replaces Renminbi depreciation anticipation. However, the great contrast between the decline of world economy and increase of Chinese economy makes "China factor" the hotspot of the world economy, and Renminbi exchange rate is the hottest of hotspot as the tache of open-economy.Renminbi exchange rate is the hotspot of international society due to Renminbi exchange rate system besides political and economic factors. On account of a variety of controls, Renminbi exchange rate level is really likely to deviate from the real and efficient exchange rate and can not reflect the real foreign exchange supply and demand relation. Renminbi exchange rate is neither the real fixed exchange rate system, nor the real floating exchange rate system. But it"s a limited floating exchange rate system under the Government"s control when the time is opportune.This paper probes into Renminbi exchange rate system"s reform direction and Renminbi exchange rate appreciation problem on this basis. This paper consists of five chapters: The first chapter introduces exchange rate"s concept and exchange rate system theories. The second chapter looks back on the vicissitude history of international exchange rate system and Renminbi exchange rate system. The third chapter probes into the problems in the current Renminbi exchange rate system. The fourth chapter discusses the reform direction of Renminbi exchange rate system.The fifth chapter analyzes the Renminbi appreciation anticipation. Finally, this paper points out China should realize relatively freely floating Renminbi exchange rate system with regard to currency policy independence and gradually open capital account through limited amending trilemma theorem, and impove Renminbi exchange rate system"s scientific nature through Pareto betterment.
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