论文标题:人民币汇率制度的选择与转换
The Choice and Transition of RMB Exchange Rate Regime
论文作者
论文导师 张宗成,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 华中科技大学,点击次数 272,论文页数 63页File Size607K
2006-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_2285437/
exchange rate regime choice theory ;;exchange rate regime transition theory ;;RMB exchange rate regime ;;exit strategy
汇率制度的选择是一个动态选择过程,汇率制度转换或变迁理论由此而生。当一国旧有的固定汇率制度不再适应经济金融的发展要求,该国汇率制度就面临如何再次选择并逐步退出到更具弹性的汇率制度的问题,理论界称之为“退出战略”。当前的人民币汇率制度也处在这一过程的起点。 自1998年亚洲金融危机过后,管理浮动汇率制度名义下的人民币汇率制度实质上已成为了单一钉住美元的汇率制度,这一制度在当时发挥了相当大的稳定和积极作用,但随着中国对外经济和金融自由化的进展,单一钉住已经无法适应这一趋势。加之自2003年以来不断高涨的对人民币汇率升值的国际压力,使得人民币汇率制度有必要借此机会重新估值并进入退出通道,向更加有弹性的浮动汇率制度过渡。汇率的实质是国与国之间经济实力的比较,人民币汇率升值的最终决定力量必然来自经济层面。近两年经济金融运行形势看,经济金融稳健运行,银行体系改造正有序进行,这种格局为汇率制度改革提供了最佳的经济背景。人民币汇率制度的最终目标虽然是浮动汇率制度,但是,从中国目前的情况看,尚不适合中国。因为完全浮动汇率制度虽然可以使资源得到最有效的配置,但是其优势的发挥要求有发达的金融市场支持,中国目前并不具备这一条件。参考一篮子货币作为短期过渡汇率制度既可让人民币汇率动起来,又可避免对主要货币汇率的较大波动和人民币升值预期强化,央行在操作中还有一定的灵活性。因此,在汇率问题相对平静时,可果断选择参考一篮子货币,尽可能减少套利资本流动和市场震荡。爬行美元区间可作为进一步退出的中间制度,从而使汇率的浮动更大也更由市场来主导。尽管爬行钉住美元区间将有效的发现均衡汇率和释放人民币升值压力,但仍是不稳定的中间汇率制度,只能是暂时的。总之,人民币汇率制度应渐进式退出,同时坚持相关经济金融政策的配套改革,这样才能确保改革风险和成本最低。在长期内,退出中间制度,实现人民币汇率的独立自由浮动。
The choice of exchange rate regime is a dynamic process, which is called the theory of transition. When the old fixed exchange rate regime cannot adapt the needs of development of economy and finance, the problem that what is the next choice and how to exit to a more flexible regime will be confronted with this currency authority, which is called“Exit Strategy”. The regime of RMB exchange rate nowadays is on the beginning point of this process. After 1998 Asian financial crisis, under nominal managed floating the RMB exchange rate regime had actually become a fixed peg on USD arrangement, which exerted a sizable and positive function for stableness at that period. But gradually this kind of peg regime cannot adapt china’s high-speed progress of external economy and finance. In addition, since 2003 the rising external pressure on the RMB appreciation has given us a big challenge, which is also an opportunity from other side and can accelerate the steps of entering the exit channel and transiting to a more flexible floating regime. The essence of exchange rate of a nation is the economic strength contrast among countries. The eventual determinant of the RMB exchange rate appreciation comes from the economy realm. China’s sound economy environment lately has provided a favorable background for RMB exchange rate regime transition. Although the ultimate goal of RMB exchange rate regime should be floating regime, it cannot be implemented at once. Because many necessary conditions nowadays are lacked, such as the developed financial market, which can make resources collocated efficiently. The reference basket currency regime may be a good short-term medium choice, which can make RMB exchange rate floating and avoid intensive fluctuation and rising appreciation expectation and increase some flexibility in operation of central bank. When the expectation disturbance is calm, currency authority should choose reference basket currency decidedly in order to reduce carry trade and market concussion. Crawling peg on USD can be the next step in the RMB exchange rate regime exit channel, which will add more market factors to the decision of RMB exchange rate. Although the crawling peg will effectively found the equilibrium exchange rate and release appreciation pressure, it is still temporary. In conclusion, RMB exchange rate regime should gradually and moderately exit with the relevant reform of economic and financial policy, which can insure the lowest risk and cost of this transition. In long-term, RMB exchange rate regime must exit intermediate regime and achieve the independently free floating.
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