论文标题:人民币升值及汇率制度改革研究
A Study on the Appreciation of RMB and the Reform of Chinese Exchange Regime
论文作者 刘琦
论文导师 杜婕,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 吉林大学,点击次数 261,论文页数 64页File Size244k
2005-04-29论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_2457882/ 人民币;升值;汇率制度;改革
Electronic Whiteboard;Market Forecast; Financing Plan; Financial Evaluation;Feasibility Study
近些年,世界各国经济普遍不振,而在这样的宏观大背景下,中国经济却逆风飞扬,引起了人们的普遍关注。而人民币升值及汇率制度改革问题更是引来国内外学者甚至各国政治当局蜂拥而至的讨论。然而,讨论虽盛,却终未形成共识。本文对以上两个具有现实意义的问题进行了系统的研究。对于人民币升值问题,本文从其面临的内外压力及利弊的角度切入,即揭露了日本及美国强烈呼吁人民币升值的政治目的,又提出了人民币在适当时机适度升值利大于弊的观点。对于中国汇率制度改革问题,本文在回顾其历史及分析中国现行汇率制度的利弊后,对汇率制度的改革方案进行了深入探索,并提出了汇率制度改革的配套措施。
In the recent years, the world’s economy is generally gloomy ,while insuch macro background China’s economy has been making rapid progress asever before which attaches universal attention from all parts of the world . Theproblems of the appreciation of RMB and the reform of the exchange regimeare more charming and have resulted an even-heat discussion. But, there’s stillnot a consensus. Whether RMB should appreciate? What are the advantagesand disadvantages of RMB’s appreciation? Is it right for China to drawbackfrom the pegging exchange regime? Where should China go after withdrawingits original regime . Different people give different answers to the aboveproblems. The author expects to add a faint but clear voice to this discussion,the aim is not to make the situation much noisier, but to neutralize someadverse points to some extend.The dissertation is divided into three main parts.To begin with, after analyzing the article shows that there are fourcharacteristics in the problems of the appreciation of RMB and reform ofChinese exchange regime. First, an economical problem with political color.Second, an argument for benefit covered by an academic argument. Third, adefinite trend whose result is changing; Forth, a dilemma that you can notsolve this problem without any damage. So, it’s undoubtedly that these twoproblems are full of contradiction, whither, challenge and games. It’s the exactreason that the author selects it as the subject of my graduated dissertation.In the second part of this dissertation, the author discusses the problem ofRMB’s appreciation by analyzing its pressure, advantages and disadvantages.At first, the author analyzes the pressure of RMB’s appreciation from internaland external aspects. As far as the external pressure is concerned, America andJapan are presented undoubtedly. After showing out the main points of them—Japan advocated that China has outputted deflation to the world; whileAmerica considers that China’s monetary manipulation has leaded its seriousunemployment—the author shows their arguments are all faint which impliesthe thick political color of this problem. Then, the dissertation analyzes theinternal pressure of this problem. As far as metrics and economicalfundamental factors are concerned, the internal pressure exists indeed. Afterthat, the author analyzes the mechanism of this problem, which digging out thedisingenuous elements. So, the result is that the internal pressure of theappreciation of RMB is not the encouraging fruit of the development of ourcountry completely which is usually being taken for granted. The inclinationof economy policy, the internal deviation of the economical system, thedisequilibrium of the economical structure, the disharmony of thedevelopment of our economy, all of the above have accelerated the piling ofthe pressure. After analyzing the internal and external pressures generally, theauthor draws the following meaningful conclusions: First, we needn’t answerthe external pressure by appreciating. Second, we can’t answer the internalpressure by appreciating only. When it comes to the advantages anddisadvantages of the RMB’s appreciation, the author analyzes its effects toChina, Japan and America respectively and dwells on the first one. Aftershowing out its disadvantages in theory, the author considers thosedisadvantages are not only the result of the appreciation of RMB, but also theresult of appreciation of all kinds of money. The effects of appreciation in thesame breadth to different countries are different greatly, so, it’s disputingwhen it comes to China. Consequently, the author analyzes the real effects ofthose disadvantages, which shows that they are limited when combining with
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