论文标题:中国股票市场对经济增长的效用：理论和实证分析
The Analysis of the Supply System of Beyond-system Public Goods
论文作者 王轶强
论文导师 何德旭,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 中国社会科学院研究生院,点击次数 164,论文页数 57页File Size4574k
2003-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_260786177/ 股票市场;经济增长;金融功能观点;协整分析
stock market;economic growth;functional perspective of financial intermediation theory;cointegration test
近年来，一些国家的股票市场发展对经济增长产生的效用日渐深远，并且引起了越来越多的关注。在我国，股票市场也达到了一个不小的规模；股票市场与经济行为人的结合越来越紧密；我国客观的环境和历史又赋予了股票市场特殊的地位和作用，股票市场发展成为许多其他领域的改革进程能否顺利推进的一个关键因素。因而，本文的主旨就在于从理论分析和实证检验这两个角度考察中国股票市场发展对经济增长的影响和作用。 本文首先详细阐述了金融功能观点和经济增长理论，并概述了股票市场的货币政策传导效应等其他作用机理，从理论上说明了健康运行的股票市场能够促进经济增长；即股票市场可以促进技术进步、资本积累、分工等，而这些因素反过来又能促进经济增长。另外，本文也对我国股票市场的发展和意义作了一个概述。 其次，本文通过描述性分析和协整分析等方法，着重考察了中国股票市场发展对居民储蓄和货币政策的影响，以及对经济增长的效用。本文的实证分析表明：中国股票市场发展的规模和流动性确实与城乡居民储蓄的变化相关；从长期来看中国股市规模的发展有助于居民储蓄的增加，股市的流动性对居民储蓄有着明显的分流作用；尤其是短期来看，股市交易的活跃程度显著影响着投资者以及潜在投资者的储蓄行为。除此之外，股市的发展对货币总需求、利率、货币市场运行等都已产生了影响，这对货币政策的制定和实施提出了新的要求。因此，股票市场的发展已经对许多影响经济增长的重要经济变量产生了影响。尽管如此，本文通过协整检验发现：无论是从股市的规模来看，还是从股市的流动性来看，股市对经济增长的直接作用并不显著；但是，以城乡居民储蓄表示的银行体系发展却对经济增长有着显著影响。 最后，本文对实证分析的结果做出了说明，解释了股票市场对经济增长没有起到直接的促进作用的原因，并在此基础上提出了一些建议。
In recent years, the development of some foreign stock markets has increasingly had a significant effect on the economic growth and gained more and more attentions. In China, the stock market also became a key factor to the economic reform. So the main topic of this paper is to analyze whether the Chinese stock market has contributed a lot to the economic growth.Firstly, through the functional perspective of financial intermediation theory and the economic growth theory, this paper clarifies that the well-developed stock market can accelerate the economic growth in theory, that is to say, the stock market can expedite technological innovation, capital accumulation, the division of labor and so on, while these factors can boost the economic growth.Secondly, the paper focuses on the relations between Chinese stock market development and the savings and also the monetary policy. The empirical analysis shows that the scale and liquidity of the Chinese stock market really correlate with the change of the savings. From the long run, the enlargement of the Chinese stock market scale will redound to the increasing of savings and the liquidity of stock market has visible effect on the distribution of savings, and especially during the short period, the vibrancy of stock exchange affects the saving behavior both of the existing and the potential investors. Furthermore, the development of stock market has already affected money demand, interest rate, money market and so on, which makes some challenges to the conduct and implement of monetary policy. In a word, the development of the stock market has greatly affected many important economic variables that contribute to the economic growth. However, through the cointegration test, this paper finds that the effect of stock market on the economic growth is not so outstanding in the light of whether the scale or the liquidity of the stock market. While on the contrary, the development of bank system, denoted by savings deposits, has remarkable effect on the economic growth.Finally, the paper explains the results of the empirical analysis and clarifies why the effect of Chinese stock market on the economic growth is not so outstanding. In the end, the paper makes some suggestion based on the above analysis.
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