论文标题:交通需求管理评价指标体系研究
Study on the Evaluated Indices System of the Traffic Demand Management
论文作者
论文导师 李旭宏,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 交通运输规划与管理
论文单位 东南大学,点击次数 44,论文页数 68页File Size14755K
2006-03-27论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_264481427/
Traffic Demand Management;Necessity;Definition Classification; Indices Evaluated Indices System; Model; Comprehensive Evaluation ; Combination Weighting Method
随着经济发展以及鼓励小汽车进入家庭,汽车保有量迅速增加,城市交通问题已经成为制约城市发展的重要因素之一。实践证明,把交通需求管理与增加道路供给能力放在同等地位,才是解决城市交通问题根本的出路。在我国,虽然一些交通需求管理措施在部分大中城市已经得到实施,但是对其研究还处于初始阶段,所以尽快建立一套科学、准确地评价指标体系,来衡量交通需求管理的实施效果,为决策者提供可靠的评价信息是十分必要的。 论文首先研究了交通需求管理的定义、特点、目的等基本概念。通过分析我国大部分城市存在的交通问题,解决问题的实践经验以及我国交通需求的特点、发展趋势,论述了在我国实施交通需求管理的必要性以及可行性。 交通需求管理策略涉及的范围很广,相应的评价指标体系也比较复杂,所以如何对实施策略进行分类,是关系建立评价指标体系难易程度的关键。论文从研究国外的实施策略以及实施效果出发,结合我国交通需求特征现状以及发展趋势,按照实施策略对交通流四个阶段(交通生成、交通分布、交通方式选择、时空分配)的影响,来建立适合我国的交通需求管理分类框架,提出了减少出行生成策略、改变出行分布策略、改变出行方式结构策略以及均衡出行资源分布四大类策略,涉及的具体策略有22条。 为建立评价指标体系,论文首先研究了交通需求管理评价与一般的城市交通管理评价的区别,提出了评价指标体系建立的8条原则、评价指标归类以及评价指标的选取方法—目标层次分析法。 论文在对四大类策略分别建立评价指标体系时,首先分析了四大类策略对城市系统的各方面影响以及其实施目的,建立评价指标体系结构;在建立指标计算模型时,根据策略对交通流的影响阶段的分析,寻求直接变化量或者相关变化量,建立指标—变化量计算模型。 对综合评价方法的研究已有很多,本文的研究侧重于指标权重的确定方法。本文首先分析了客观、主观赋权方法的优缺点,引出了组合赋权法,然后研究组合赋权法的合成形式以及两种组合赋权方法—改进的主成分分析法、层次分析—熵值法。对层次分析—熵值法,研究了两种组合型式:拉格朗日合成法、乘法合成归一化法。
Along with the economic development and the policy to encourage car enter the family, the quantity of the car owners is quickly increasing, the transportation problem has been one of the important factors that restrict the city"s develop. It is proved that putting the traffic demand management and the road supply ability expansion in the equal position, is the basic way to solve the problem. In China, the study on the TDM is in the beginning stage, although some strategies have been Implemented in some cities . so it is necessary to establish a set of scientific reliable indices to evaluate the TDM Impacts used for the decision-making as soon as possible. The author studies the definition , the characteristics and the purposes of the TDM etc…by combining the experience to solve the urban transportation problems and the trends of the traffic demand in China . The author puts forward the necessity and possibilities to carry out the TDM。 The TDM involves strategies very widely, and the homologous evaluation indics systems are complicated, so how to class the strategies depend the establishment of the indics easily or not。 In order to set the China’s strategies ,The author firstly studies the strategies abroad and their impacts ,analyses the presence and trends of the demand in China ,and then estabilishes the frame of the China’s strategies classification involing reducing the traffic Generation、changing the distribution, changing the mode choice ,equalizing the resource from space-time, according to the four stage of traffic flow (Generation,Distribution,Mode choice,Assignment). On the differences between the evaluations of TDM and that of general management,the thesis brings forward the eight principles to establishment ,the classification and the way named Aimed-AHP to select indices. For setting the evaluated indices systems of the four classifications, the author firstly analyses their popurses and the impacts on the urban, and then sets the evaluated indices frame. The author set the variable-indices models according to the strategies’impacts on the traffic flows. There have been many researches on the methods of the comprehensive evaluations ,but in this paper , the author maily studies the way to set the indices weight. The thesis firstly analyses the benefits and shortcomings of the Objective and subjective way , and then brings forward combination weighting methods ,researching the ways to combination the combination weighting methods inconludes two menthods , improved principal component analysis method and AHP- Entropy method. The author particularly study the latter ,puts forward the Lagrange function combination and multiplication combinated to whole menthod .
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