论文标题:教育投资在我国经济增长中的作用测度及其实证研究
The Research on the Contribution Scale of Education Investment in the Economy Growth in China and the Positive Research
论文作者
论文导师 胡宗义,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 数量经济学
论文单位 湖南大学,点击次数 368,论文页数 57页File Size660K
2006-05-10论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_3039647/
Economy Growth; Education Investment; Fixed Assets Investment; Scale of Contribution; Distributed Lags
科学技术在现代经济发展中凸现出极其重要的作用,科学技术的发展是现代经济发展的原动力,而其发展从根本上讲,离不开教育。教育投资水平不仅直接影响着科学技术的发展,制约整个社会资源的配置效率,而且还直接创造了推动社会经济发展和科学技术进步的动力。因此,对于我国这样一个资源稀缺、经济基础薄弱的人口大国,加大教育投资力度,提高国民素质,是促使我国经济高度、高速发展的有效途径。但我国的教育投资平均水平与世界其他国家,不管是发达国家还是发展中国家相比都存在着不小的差距。因此,研究教育对当代经济增长的作用,测度我国经济增长中教育的贡献度,对于我国提高教育投资水平、促进经济高水平发展,就成为一个十分值得研究与探讨的重大课题。 本文从我国目前经济增长模式不能适应经济持续、高速、稳定增长这一要求的实际出发,运用新经济增长理论以及计量经济学方法,构建我国经济增长与教育投资的计量经济学模型,测度教育投资对我国经济增长的贡献。全文共分四部分:第一部分介绍了论文的研究思路、理论依据与现实意义;第二部分就经济增长中各要素的作用及前人的研究成果进行了研究和述评;第三部分利用计量经济方法构建了我国经济增长与教育投资的时间序列分布滞后模型,并以此测算我国教育投资对经济增长的贡献测度;第四部分依据建立的模型对现在及未来一段时间(2006～2010年)我国经济增长与教育投资关系问题进行了研究,得出结论:加大我国教育投资总量是当前的经济增长的关键性问题,与此同时,我国教育投资的分配结构有待进一步优化、调整。 本文主要创新点在于:(1)利用格兰杰因果关系检验确定教育投资与经济增长之间的因果关系;(2)利用时间序列数据进行建模时,着重体现了教育投资的长效性这一重要的特殊性质;(3)利用齐次非平稳过程的ARIMA模型对我国未来教育投资进行了预测。
Science and technology have been playing an important role in the development of modern economy. It is the original drive for the economy. However, its development results from education. The investment in education influences not only science and technology"s development, but also the efficiency of resource distribution of the whole society. Therefore, investing in education would be an effective resolution to driving national economy"s fast growth, especially for our country"s current situation which is short of resource with largest population in the world. As for the average level of education funding, there is gap compared with developed countries and some developing as well. As a concern of this, it has become a useful issue. This article begins with an analysis of why China"s present economy mode couldn"t meet the requirement of constant, fast, stable develop, deploying theory of new economy development and statistic economy method to build up a model of how education benefits economy growth, and measure its contribution. This thesis consists of four parts. In the first part research methodology, reference theories and realistic meaning are covered. Evaluations on each element which influences economy and results of former research are carried out in the second part. By using Econometrics method, a new model is built up that is ordered by distributed lags date of economy growth and education investment in our country, also projecting a scale of contribution to the economy from education investment. At last, on the base of research on the relationship between economy growth and education investment, a conclusion is drawn that increasing the investment on education is the key to improve economy. Meanwhile, adjusting and optimizing the structure of investment distribution on education should be given attention. The innovation of this article are rest with: 1) applying Granger Causal Relations Methods to test causal relationships between education investment and economy growth;2) using time series data to built Econometrical model, emphasizing education investment"s long term feature;3) projecting future developments by ARIMA model.
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