论文标题:人民币升值的贸易效应研究
A Study on the Effect of RMB Appreciation on Trade
论文作者 史本叶
论文导师 李俊江,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国际贸易学
论文单位 吉林大学,点击次数 200,论文页数 61页File Size563k
2005-04-29论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_306374192/ 人民币升值; 贸易收支; 汇率波动; 马歇尔——勒纳条件; J 型曲线效应
State-run bank ; commercial bank ;risk assets ; non-performing loan
汇率问题是和国民经济密切相关的一个重要国际金融问题,汇率升值或贬值都会对一国的对外贸易产生重大影响。我国对外贸易的快速发展所累积的大量贸易顺差和外汇储备,使我国目前面临着空前的人民币升值压力,如果人民币进行一定幅度的升值,那么对我国贸易收支究竟会产生多大影响很值得我们研究。本文基于对目前人民币存在空前升值压力这一热点问题的关注,在对已有汇率波动贸易效应理论回顾的基础上,利用修正的“马歇尔——勒纳条件”和“J 型曲线效应”,在中国出口供给弹性不大和存在大量贸易顺差的条件下,对人民币汇率如果升值可能造成的贸易收支效应进行了理论分析和经验检验,并最终得出“人民币升值对我国贸易收支的影响是有限的”这一结论,同时,考虑到人民币一旦升值对我国贸易可能产生的不良影响,提出了几点具体的应对措施。
The issue of exchange rate is one important international finance problemthat is closely related with one country’s economy, as a main kind of economiclever, either appreciation or depreciation of exchange rate will exert a greatinfluence on one country"s foreign trade, therefore, the effect of exchange ratechanges on trade development is a great subject of international economics. Alarge number of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserve that the fastdevelopment of foreign trade of our country accumulated, make our countryface unprecedented RMB appreciation pressure at present, once RMB isappreciated ,which kind and how heavily of the influence to our country’s tradeare worth studying very much, so the effect of RMB exchange rate’s changes ontrade is the main researched purpose of this text. on the basis of the review ofthe existed theory and utilizing revised Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-curveEffect , This article have an theoretical analysis and experience examination onthe effect of RMB exchange rate’s changes on trade if both the elasticity ofexport supply and the trade balance in China are too much high, finally ,wecome to a conclusion that the impact of RMB appreciation on the trade surplusis limited. meanwhile , consider the harmful effects that may be produced to thetrade of our country, we put forward some concrete measures :With the title of the effect of RMB appreciation on the China’s trade, Thisarticle describes the relevant problems in four partsThe First section reviewed the theory of the effect of exchange ratechanges on trade. including mainly relevant theory such as classicaltheory ,elasticity theory , absorption theory , monetary theory and incompletelytransmission theory . The article starts with Thomas Mun"s exchange ratechange view and David Hume’s price-specie-flow mechanism, have introducedclassical theory’s argumentation of the relation between the exchange ratechange and trade revenue and expenditure; The most important and mostpractical elasticity theory the existed theory, carry on detailed retrospect for theexample with Marshall-Lerner Condition mainly, point out the term ofexchange rate depreciation improving trade balance is that the absolute value ofthe summation of import demand elasticity and export demand elasticity ismore than 1; Alexander’s Absorption Theory consider that one country’s tradebalance could improve when one country’s yield exceeding absorption(domestic resident"s expenditure ) ,by this way, depreciation can directly orindirectly improve the international revenue and expenditure, Monetary Theoryregard international revenue and expenditure as one monetary phenomenon ,think any disequilibrium of balance of payments reflect monetarynonconformity of stock, then, depreciation can improve the internationalrevenue and expenditure through influencing the change of the money supply;Finally, the Incompletely Transmission Theory explain the fact that theexchange rate fluctuation and the trade revenue and expenditure with thetheory of imperfect competition , industrial organization , precipitating cost ,etc.The second part renews the traditional theory model, with the introductionof the experience of Japanese yen appreciation. Starting with limitation of theassumed conditions in the Elasticity Theory, this part have carried onsupplement and revised the trade effect theory of exchange rate throughrelaxing the corresponding assumed conditions. at first, Consider imports andexports elasticity of supply not infinitely great, we form theBickerdike-Robinson-Metzler Condition with including supply and demandelasticity of import and export, prove the smaller the elasticity of supplyexported is , the more difficult to be satisfied the condition of depreciationimproving trade balance; Secondly, have analysed the influence of trade balanceto the elasticity of the exchange rate, and come to the conditions of improving Vmtrade balance: nx + ·nm > 1, proving that there is a large amount of Vxtrade balance surplus, the appreciation impact on trade balance is limited;Final
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