论文标题:四川省人力资本投资与经济增长关系研究
The Study on Environmental Accounting Theory an Practice at the Enterprise Level
论文作者 余惠利
论文导师 李仕明,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 企业管理
论文单位 电子科技大学,点击次数 125,论文页数 56页File Size926k
2005-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_3196932/ 人力资本投资; 教育; 经济增长
Human capital investment; Education; Economic growth
经济增长理论是现代经济学的一个重要分支,经济增长是取得经济成就的最重要的标志和过程。四川省位于中国的西南部,改革开放至今,其经济发展取得了十分可喜的成就,在增长速度上已经逐渐超过全国平均水平,2004 年达到了12.7%,超过全国平均水平(9.5%)3.2 个百分点,人均GDP 与全国平均水平的差距也在逐渐缩小,同时也加快了产业结构调整的步伐。但是,与其他东、中部省市相比,经济发展仍比较落后,而且与先进经济发达地区如上海、广东等地的差距还是很大,并且经济发展还面临着许多难题,而其中人力资本存量低,资源配置和利用效率低下是最主要的困难。本文主要依据中国统计年鉴、中国固定资产统计年鉴、中国人口统计年鉴、中国人口普查、全国各地区2004 年经济和社会发展统计公报、全国教育经费执行情况统计公报、四川省统计年鉴等资料数据,针对四川省经济发展现状和人力资本投资现状进行了比较分析,发现差距和不足;用柯布——道格拉斯生产函数根据1990～2000 年中国人力资本、物质资本、GDP 值等大量数据对中国31 个省、市、自治区和直辖市的人力资本投资的产出弹性和贡献率的进行实证分析得出人力资本投资比固定资本投资的产出弹性要高,并且在不同的地区,这两个弹性的大小差距是不一样的。同时,通过研究我们发现,教育投资对经济增长的贡献并非大家所想象的那样体现出立竿见影的显著效果,人力资本投资与固定资本投资收益相比具有特殊性,于是本文又进行了更深一步的分析:第一,对计量经济学中的动态回归模型进行一系列变换和假设,通过四川省的实例对教育投资收益的滞后期进行了估算和分析,发现教育投资必须经过若干年其收益才能完全体现;同时我们又采用计量软件SPSS 对经济增长和人均受教育年之间的互动关系进行模拟,发现教育对经济增长促进作用存在一个临界区间,并且不同的地区,不同的时间临界区间的长度和起止点有所不同。根据实证分析得出的结论,我们认为四川省未来经济发展目标的实现必须放在加大人力资本投资、提高人力资本质量的基点上,并就四川省的人力资本投资政策提出一些建议。
The theory of economic growth is an important branch of modern economicsand economic growth indicates most important economic achievement .SichuanProvince lies in the southwest of China, it has made great achievement on economicgrowth since reform and opening up, and economic growth rate has graduallyexceeded national average level that reaches 12.7% in 2004. At the same time thepaces of industrial structure adjustment quickens up. But comparing with eastern areasuch as Shanghai, Guangdong, it is a greatly laggard, furthermore its developmentfaces a lot of difficulties that the lower human capital stock and the resource utilizingefficiency are the main ones.This dissertation analyzes the stats of economic development and human capitalinvestment of Sichuan and finds the difference and absence with other citiesaccording to China statistics yearbooks, China Population Statistics Yearbook,Sichuan Statistics Yearbook and so on. And we analyze the output elasticity andcontribution rate of human capital investment for 31 provinces, cities, autonomousregion and municipality through Cobb-Douglas production function on the basis oflarge number data such as human capital, material capital, GDP from 1990 to 2000.We find that the elasticity of human capital investment is higher than that of thematerial capital investment, and their difference is varied along with region. Theinvestigation indicates that the contribution of education to economic growth doesn’tget effect instantly as we imagined before, and compared with material capitalinvestment the return of human capital investment has its peculiarity. Through deeplyanalysis by dynamic regression model it shows that only after rather long period canthe accumulative yield of education expenditure be achieved. We also find the impactof education investment on economic growth has a critical range and only the averageeducated year exceeds the upper limit of critical range the economic could make greatachievement. In the end, the cultivation and development strategies of human capitalare put forward in hope that it can provide some references for talents" training andtapping decisions of Sichuan in future.
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