论文标题:我国人口城市化水平对就业率影响及政策研究
The Economics Review/System of Venture Capital,Principle and Research on Application in China
论文作者 刘伟德
论文导师 徐金发,论文学位 博士,论文专业 管理科学与工程
论文单位 浙江大学,点击次数 244,论文页数 157页File Size5585k
2001-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_3344742/ 人口城市化水平; 要素生产率; 就业增长弹性系数; 就业率; 政府政策
Population-urbanized Ratio;Productivity of Resources; Coefficient of Employment Elasticity; Employment Rate; Government policies
由于经济发展水平和传统经济体制等因素的制约，我国长期存在严重的人口城市化进程滞后现象和城乡就业难现象，低人口城市化水平和低就业率问题正成为困扰我国新世纪经济社会发展的两大难题。同时，与一国或一个地区人口城市化水平和就业水平密切相关的第三产业在我国也呈低发展水平。研究发现，低人口城市化水平、低第三产业发展水平和低就业率之间存在密切的联系。 依据人口城市化理论、经济发展理论和就业理论，我们可以得出这样的结论：人口城市化水平是就业率的重要影响因素。首先，决定就业率的基本因素是经济总产出量。就业率是劳动力人口总数、经济总产出量和劳动生产率的函数。在这三个决定因素中，经济总产出量是基本的决定因素。其次，人口城市化水平显著影响经济总产出量。人口城市化水平的变动，导致经济结构变换，而经济结构变换又影响经济增长和就业增长弹性系数。人口城市化水平由此影响就业率。 研究表明，我国人口城市化水平同样对就业率存在显著影响。我国低人口城市化水平是导致低第三产业发展水平和低就业率的一个重要原因。在今后的发展中，通过提高我国人口城市化水平，既能够扩大有效需求，又能够优化经济结构、提高要素生产率、促进经济增长和就业增长弹性系数的提高，从而提高就业率。因此，在新世纪里，提高我国人口城市化水平是提高我国城乡就业率的重要途径。论文通过对大量数据的统计分析，得出了我国人口城市化水平与产业结构、经济总产出量和就业率等变量间的回归函数关系。 正确的政策对新世纪我国人口城市化发展和改善就业状况至关重要。在提高认识基础上，通过制度创新，政府可在人口、就业、投资、经济结构等方面，制定和实施有利于提高人口城市化水平和就业率的政策。考虑到加速推进人口城市化进程的重要性和紧迫性，作者建议将人口城市化列为我国新世纪经济社会发展的一项基本国策。 论文创新点：一是客观全面地分析估算了我国城乡实际失业率；二是提出并论证了“三低”问题间的互动性；三是建立了人口城市化水平对就业率影响分析模型，得出了人口城市化水平与产业结构、经济总产出量和就业率等变量间的回归分析函数关系；四是提出提高人口城市化水平不一定必然导致城市就业率下降；实际上，提高我国人口城市化水平是新世纪提高我国城乡就业率的重要途径和现实选择；五是提出提高人口城市化水平和就业率的关键是调整优化我国的经济结构，其主要内容是产业结构和城市结构的调整和优化。
Due to some factors such as economic development level and traditional planned-economic mechanism, there for a long period have been serious problems in population urbanization and employment, and these problems will baffle the economic and social development of China in this new century. At the same time, the tertiary, which has consanguineous relationship with population urbanization and employment, is also in low development level. Our research shows the viewpoint.Based on theories of population urbanization, economic development and employment, we may come up with a conclusion: population-urbanized ratio is of the important influential factors on the employment rate. Firstly, basic determinants of employment rate are made up of labor amount, total economic output and labor productivity. Among them, output is the basic. Secondly, population-urbanized ratio has remarkable influence on the output. Population urbanization results in adjustment of economic structure, which further influences economic growth and coefficient of employment elasticity. Thus, population-urbanized ratio will do an affect on employment rate.This research shows that the population-urbanized ratio of China has the same influence on its employment rate. China"s low population-urbanized ratio is one of the main factors leading to low tertiary development rate and low employment rate. In the future development, by tertiary way of raising population-urbanized ratio, we can not only enlarge effective demand, but also rationalize economic structures, improve productivity of resources and the tempo of economic growth, and raise coefficient of employment elasticity, and in turn raise employment rate. So, in this new century, raising population-urbanized ratio of China is an important way to raise the employment rate both in urban and rural areas. Based on statistical analysis, we set up the regression function among population-urbanized ratio, industrial structure, economic output and employment rate.Correct policy is crucial to raising the population urbanized ratio and employment rate of China in new century. On the basis of understanding improvement, government can formulate and implement proper policies on population, employment investment and economic structure to help to raise the population urbanized ratio and employment rate. Given the importance and urgency of population urbanization, the author recommends that it should be a national policy.Innovations of the dissertation are as follows: (1) working out China"s actual unemployment rate; (2) putting forward and expressing the mutual relationship among low population-urbanized ratio, low development rate of the third industry and low employment rate; (3) setting up an analysis model on how population-urbanized ratio influences employment rate, and building up the regression function among population-urbanized ratio, industrial structure economic output and employment rate; (4) pointing out that raising population-urbanized ratio of our country in new century does not inevitably lead to reduction of employment rate in urban areas ;in fact ,it is an important and practical way to raise the employment rate both in rural and urban areas of China; (S)Pointing out that the key to raise population-urbanized ratio is to adjust China economic structures, especially the industrial structure and city structure.
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