论文标题:中国金融中介发展与经济增长关系的实证分析
Agriculture: Liberalization or Protection
论文作者 闫志刚
论文导师 夏少刚,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 数量经济学
论文单位 东北财经大学,点击次数 271,论文页数 48页File Size2385k
2004-12-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_38855147/ 金融中介;经济增长;因果关系
Financial intermediaries; Economic growth; Causality relationship
世界各国经济增长与发展经验表明,金融中介发展与经济增长具有一定的相关关系。那么对于我国而言他们之间有没有相互依存的关系?如果有,是什么样的相互依存关系?金融中介体系怎样促进了经济的增长?作用的渠道与机制是什么?对我国的经济增长贡献具体有多大?本文从理论和实证的角度研究了中国的金融中介发展和经济增长之间的关系问题,以期对上述问题做出初步的回答。 本文主要做了三方面的工作,首先对经济增长与金融中介之间的因果关系作了分析,检验结果表明,从总体发展趋势来看,中国经济发展随着改革开放以来市场体系的不断完善,在金融中介的发展与经济增长之间越来越表现为帕特里克所提出的那种关系,即在金融中介发展与经济发展之间已经出现了互为因果、相互促进的积极关系。在进一步观察GLANGER因果关系检验结果的过程中,我们发现经济增长是金融中介发展原因的假设接受较多,我们认为在我国需求跟随的色彩更为浓厚一些,我们认为其原因有二,一是中国金融制度的变迁是一种强制性的变迁过程,二是由于中国产业结构不断调整,中国的金融体制随之进行了一系列的改革。 由于因果关系检验仅是简单探讨了两者之间有没有因果关系,无法对两者之间的具体作用渠道作出说明,所以我们在文章的第二部分对它们之间的相互作用渠道做了理论和实证上的分析。结果发现RPRI指标(对非政府部门总贷款额的实际增长率)与实际资本存量的增长率之间存在长期的协整关系,同时它们两者的误差修正模型则表明两者之间具有互为因果的关系。此外我们还发现实际资本存量的增长率与DEPTH(M_2/GDP)指标之间不存在长期的协整关系,我们对此的解释是,储蓄供给与投资需求之间的联系不紧密造成储蓄向投资转化的机制不灵敏,金融中介的效用没有得到充分的发挥。此外,我们还发现我国资源配置效率的改进与我国金融中介发展的两个指标之间均不存在协调发展的关系,对此我们认为原因在于:一,国有商业银行在金融中介体系中占绝对的统治地位,但其效率地下;二,中小金融机构发展缓慢;三,我国信贷体系中存在软约束,对非国有企业的贷款存在着“所有者歧视”。
The experiences of economic growth of many countries around the world show the interrelations between financial intermediaries" development and economic growth. As far as my country is concerned, do these interrelations exit? If they exit, what are these interrelations? How do financial intermediaries improve economic growth? And what are the channels and mechanisms? How we calculate the contribution of the financial intermediaries to economic growth in our country. This paper aimed at get these answers.This paper mainly composes of three parts. Firstly I analyze the causal relationship between the financial intermediaries and economic growth in the way of Granger casualty testing. The result shows the mutual casualty relationship exists, and economic growth more stimulates financial intermediaries" development. I think the main two reasons lead to this situation. One is that the reform of financial system is compelling. The other is the frequent adjustment of the industries" structure.Secondly I analyze and reveal the transmission channel between financial intermediaries" development and economic growth theoretically and positively. The result shows that there is a cointegrated relationship between PRI and RCAP, and their VEC model also show there is a mutual causal relationship between them. But, there isn"t a cointegrated relationship between DEPTH and RCAP.I think the reasons are the following: The supply of deposit isn"t related tight to the demand of investment, so deposit can"t transfer into the investment efficiently. In addition, there isn"t the cointegrated relationship between the efficiency of the resource distribution and the two variables presenting the financial intermediaries" development. I think there are two reasons: (1) the state"s commercial banks are the dominant part of our nation" financial system, but their operating efficiency is low. (2)the small and middle financial organizations develop very slowly; (3) there is still a soft restraint in system of credit. The owner" discrimination exits in loading to the non-state"scompanies.At last I calculate how much financial intermediaries contribute to economic growth by C-D function including the variables presenting financial intermediaries" development. The result shows: These two variables both improve economic growth. The average value is about 0.2. PRI" coefficient value is greater than DEPTH" coefficient. The reason is probably that deposit can not efficiently transfer into the investment. By the above-mentioned conclusion this paper gives some policy advices.The analysis structure of this paper is an innovation. It uses Granger casualty testing and cointegrated theory, so its economitrics way is newer. In addition, its conclusion is that there is a mutual causal relationship between the financial intermediaries and economic growth, which is different from the former conclusion.
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