论文标题:中国房地产业可持续发展现状分析
Analysis on Sustainable Development of Real Estate Industry in China
论文作者
论文导师 曾五一,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 统计学
论文单位 厦门大学,点击次数 902,论文页数 67页File Size897K
2006-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_3958722/
Real Estate Industry; Sustainable Development; Empirical Analysis
本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合、实证研究和规范研究相结合的方法,综合运用国内外专家、学者的研究成果,以大量的事实和数据为依据,深入分析中国房地产业及其市场的特性、发展现状和存在的主要问题。 本文的主要内容如下: 第一章在查阅大量国内外有关可持续发展理论、房地产业有关研究文献的基础上,评介了有关理论概念,并对房地产业可持续发展的内涵进行归纳、总结;第二章从房地产投资、开发和销售三个环节入手,结合大量图表,分析2005年中国房地产业的发展状况和特点,揭示我国房地产市场存在的主要问题;第三章利用博弈思想,根据市场参与主体及其行为的变化,将中国房地产市场的发展过程分为三个阶段;第四、五章构建了一个由72个指标构成的房地业可持续发展指标体系,利用突变评判法、向量夹角余弦法、熵值法和CRITIC法对2004年全国31个省市的房地产业可持续发展状况进行评价,并运用肯德尔和谐系数和斯皮尔曼等级相关系数对评价结果进行一致性检验。 本文的主要创新之处在于将可持续发展思想引入到对房地产业发展问题的研究,并在此基础上建立了房地产业可持续发展指标体系对我国各省市房地产业的发展状况进行实证分析。
In the world, real estate industry is one of the most ancient industries, but in new China, it only has a history of more than 20 years. Since 1978, along with the comprehensive reform of economic system, city-housing system, land use system and production method of real estate, real estate industry and its market started and gradually boomed in China. "Like night of spring breeze comes suddenly, the splendid display of pear blossoms", under new historical opportunities and conditions, from coast to inland, from city to village, many places all had the scene of "real estate bloom", or "exploitation bloom". In recent 20 years, Chinese real estate industry maintains a quick development continuously. The ratio of real estate total investment to the entire social fixed asset total investment has risen from 5.6% in 1990 to 17.79% in 2005. Continuous and fast mounting up of real estate made it become the pillar industry, which impels the national economy to grow steadily. Statistical data shows that, the contribution rate of real estate industry in GDP growth of Shanghai and Beijing respectively achieves 7.4% and 5.2% in 2003. The development of real estate industry also greatly improves inhabitant"s housing condition. Whereas, the real estate industry has exposed many shortage problems at the same time. Such as: excessive dependence on the bank loan during investment process, serious phenomenon of illegal land occupation in the exploitation process, frequent occurrence of structural unbalance, prominent lack of honesty during sale and service process, absence of effective methods and measures in macro– control and so on. In a word, all the problems existing in real estate industry are directly related to its short development history. At present, how to solve these problems and enable real estate industry to keep healthy, continual and steady development is the important task to be solved urgently both in theory and practice. This essay adopts the method of integrating qualitative with quantitative analysis, empirical research with theoretical research. Many productions of specialists and researchers are taken into account. Based on many facts and data, this paper provides a full and deep analysis on characteristic, status quo, and problems of real estate industry and its market. The main contents are as follows: In chapter 1, systematic conclusions of intension and characteristic of sustainabledevelopment of real estate industry are made after the review of home and foreign research achievements; Chapter 2 analyzes status quo and trait of Chinese real estate industry in 2005, from views of investment, exploitation and sale, three parts of real estate industry, with the help of massive graphs, as well as elaborates main problems existing in real estate market; In chapter 3, the gambling thought is used to divide the developing process of Chinese real estate market into three phases, according to the change of main market participators and their behaviors; Finally, in chapter 4 and 5, a system with 72 indices in research on sustainable development of real estate industry in china is established, and theories of Catastrophe, Cosines Vector Included Angle, Entropy and CRITIC are applied to appraise the current situation of sustainable development of real estate industry in 31 provinces and cities in 2004, then the consistency test of appraisal results is carried out by Kendall"s Coefficient of Concordance and Spearman Correlation Coefficient. The innovation of this thesis lies in the following ways: introducing sustainable development thought into the research on sustainable development of real estate industry; with this basis, establishing a indices system to do empirical analysis of the development status of real estate industry in 31 provinces and cities of China.
|
