论文标题:先进制造技术投资项目方案选择评价方法研究
A Study on the Evaluation Method for Selecting Advanced Manufacturing Technology Investment Project Alteratives
论文作者 桑静
论文导师 李春好,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 技术经济及管理
论文单位 吉林大学,点击次数 128,论文页数 78页File Size356k
2005-05-25论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_428895417/ 先进制造技术; 投资项目方案; 战略评价; 风险评价; 综合评价; 层次分析法; 数据包络分析
AMT; Investment Project Alateratives; Strategiy Evaluation; Risk Evaluation; Synthesis Evaluation; AHP; DEA
本文的选题来源于国家留学基金项目——“复杂决策单元管理决策效率与其在AMT 投资选择中的应用(2002657)”。本文主要研究了以下几个问题:一是分析了先进制造技术(AMT)的类型、特征与其投资的技术特点;二是分别从多目标决策理论、投资评价理论、可持续发展理论分析了AMT 对AMT投资项目方案选择评价的启示和指导意义;三是提出了AMT 投资项目方案的战略评价方法;四是提出了AMT 投资项目方案的风险评价方法;五是提出AMT 投资项目方案的“战略—风险”的综合评价;六是采用实证企业进行实证研究。其中第三、四、五章是全文的重点。第三、四章分别在分析因素识别的基础上,构建评价指标体系的层分析结构,并采用AHP 法建立评价模型。第五章指出战略评价和风险评价的结果有时往往会出现不一致的情况,这时就应对AMT 投资项目方案“战略—风险”进行综合评价。从投入产出系统的角度,AMT 投资项目方案战略评价的各个指标作为输出,风险评价的各个指标作为输入,从而组成一个多投入多产出的系统。因此,“战略—风险”综合评价就可以看成为一个投入产出的系统评价问题。但是,由于传统DEA 法虚拟乘子的取值存在过于灵活等缺陷,所以本文提出以投入和产出指标虚拟乘子的比值为虚拟乘子的置信域来构建DEA 的修正模型。然后用此修正后的DEA模型对AMT 投资项目方案进行“战略—风险”的综合评价。实证研究结果表明选择引进CAPP 为投资项目方案正好与当年企业进行技术改造所引进的投资项目方案相符,因此,可以在一定程度上认为本文提出的AMT 投资项目方案选择评价方法是科学的、可行的。
AMT( the Advanced Manufacturing Technology), built up in the basis of traditional manufacturing technology ,continually absorbing new fruit of science and technology of machine、electronics、information、modern management and so on, is a new manufacturing technology which synthetically applied to product development 、design、manufacture、examination、management process. The technique is produced in the 90"s of 20 centuries in the goal of achieving superior quality of product and character of efficiency、low energy source consuming、cleanness、agility in production process, so it is a predominant production technology which is extensively thought by domestic and international professional scholars. The manufacturing technology has many forms, such as computer number control(CNC) 、automatic material handling(AMH) 、computer assistant design(CAD) 、computer assistant manufacture(CAM) 、computer assistant engineering(CAE) 、computer assistant plan(CAP) 、flexible manufacture system(FMS) 、computer integrated manufacture system(CIMS)and so on. AMT investment can bring many visible performances and invisible strategic performances for the enterprise. The simple traditional evaluation method applied in AMT investment evaluation will meet with many problems (namely cannot reflect invisible strategic performance). Many foreign professional scholars pointed in related research, the key reason which influence AMT extensive application not lie in technology but in management, moreover, the most important reason is“how to evaluate AMT”. For making reasonable decision guidance, in the basis of analyzing AMT character, the thesis give a AMT investment evaluation model which is made of strategy analysis、risk analysis and strategy-risk analysis. As the predominant techniques of international manufacturing in 21 centuries, compared with traditional manufacturing technology, AMT has distinct technique character. Its main characteristic express that high technique content、flexibility in technology system、high investment、high risk、diverse income、difficult evaluation choice in AMT investment. AMT is a typical new technology which blend traditional manufacturing technology with other advanced fields such as machine, electronics, information, material, energies, management. It represents the highest level in modern manufacturing and in the development direction of integration and intelligence with the notable character of compression in high knowledge and technology. High flexibility in AMT is decided by its using technique. Flexibility can bring many visible and invisible benefits for enterprise. there are two reasons: 1)flexibility can strengthen enterprise’s ability to deal with market emergency, better meet customer’s requirement, timely hold business opportunities. 2)flexibility can raise equipment utilization efficiency. AMT makes the technical science content high, if enterprise want to develop this kind of technical effect well, the innovation needed not only in production process but also in organization and management of purchase、stock、sale. all these changes come to a decision that adopt AMT will need a great deal of elementary investment. AMT is integrated by synthetically applying other new techniques. From designing project to choosing technology, till integrating system, every detail will result in system failure. So AMT is usually companied by higher technology application risk. AMT also has characteristic of diverse income forms. the main income forms include: decrease labor force cost、decrease material cost、decrease stock level、decrease quality cost such as waster、inferior、product returned、claim for compensation after selling、increase equipment utilization efficiency、increase anti-disturbed ability、increase product quality、increase reaction ability to market requirement、increase competition advantage、shorten deliver period、promote enterprise image、timely induct new and renew products、raise control ability to fleeting market opportunities、reduce working burden、strengthen employee’s satisf
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