论文标题:我国汇率制度的选择
East Asian Monetary Cooperation Pattern Analysis under China"s Visual Angle
论文作者 褚云皓
论文导师 赵进文,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 统计学
论文单位 东北财经大学,点击次数 148,论文页数 49页File Size2682k
2005-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_441173122/ 汇率制度选择;人民币汇率;一篮子汇率制
exchange rate system selection; RMB exchange rate; basket of currencies exchange rate system
人民币汇率制度的选择现在是并且以后还将是我国制订经济政策的重点问题,是否选择了合适的汇率制度关系到我国经济是否持续稳定的发展。本文通过对两极汇率制度的分析以及借鉴东南亚发展中国家汇率制度的变迁,切合我国的实际情况,提出人民币一篮子货币汇率制是适用于我国目前经济形势的汇率制度。并结合我国的实际数据构建了人民币一篮子汇率模型,得到一篮子汇率制的模拟汇率值。把模拟汇率值与我国目前的名义汇率值相比较,得出一篮子汇率制的优势。 本文内容结构如下: 第一章介绍了汇率制度选择理论的发展,尤其介绍了汇率选择制度的理论方向从以前的固定汇率制与浮动汇率制之争,发展到现在两极汇率制与中间汇率制之争。在此基础上,提出中间汇率与两极汇率哪种汇率制度更适合我国的问题。 第二章借鉴东南亚发展中国家和地区汇率制度变迁的经验,结合我国的实际情况,提出单一钉住美元的固定汇率制,以及完全的浮动汇率制,都不适用于我国,一篮子货币汇率制是我国汇率制度改革的方向。 第三章构建了一篮子货币钉住制的初步模型,说明了构建模型的几个基本问题。 第四章结合我国的实际数据构建出人民币一篮子汇率制的年度及月度实际模型,得出模拟汇率值并加以分析。提出采用一篮子汇率制不仅可以使人民币汇率有一定的浮动空间,减轻人民币升贬值的压力,还可以减少人民币对除美元外的其他币种汇率的波动,有利于我国进出口贸易的发展。 第五章是结论部分。总结了从一篮子汇率制模型得到的启示,并指出该模型需要进一步改进的地方。
The selection of RMB exchange rate system is now and will be one of the.most important issues for our country to carry out economic policies. A proper exchange rate system selection is key to the continuous economic development of our country. By analyzing the two-extreme-end exchange rate system, by learning from the exchange rate systems formation of some developing countries in southeastern Asia and by adapting to current situations of our country, this paper puts forward the idea that the RMB basket exchange rate system is applicable to our country"s current economic situations. This paper uses our country"s real data, develops RMB basket exchange rate model and work out the simulated exchange rate value of the basket exchange rate system. This paper compares the simulated exchange rate value with our country"s current nominal exchange rate vale and draws the conclusion that the basket of currencies exchange system is of advantage.The contents of this paper are as follows,In chapter one, this paper outlines the development of exchange rate system selection, states that the theoretical direction has shifted from the dispute between the fixed exchange rate system and the floating exchange rate system to the dispute between the two-extreme-end exchange rate system and the intermediate exchange rate system, and puts forward the question which of the intermediate exchange rate system and the two-extreme-end exchange rate system is more suitable to our country.In chapter two, this paper learns from the exchange rate formation experience of some developing countries and regions in southeastern Asia and manifests that the fixed exchange rate system of pegging of RMB to USD and the complete floating exchange rate system are both not applicable to our country. The basket of currencies exchange rate system is the direction of our country"s exchange ratesystem reforms.In chapter three, this paper constructs a preliminary model of basket of currencies exchange rate pegging system, and explains several basic questions as to the construction of this model.In chapter four, this paper uses our country"s real data, constructs the annual and monthly practical model of RMB basket of currencies exchange rate system, and makes out and analyzes the simulated exchange rate value. This paper then puts forward that the basket of currencies exchange rate system not only brings RMB a certain floating range. eases the RMB appreciation and depreciation pressure, but also reduces the fluctuation of RMB to other currencies except of USD, and helps to boost the development of our country"s imports and exports trades.In chapter five, this paper concludes the enlightenment from the basket of currencies exchange rate model and points out the improvements needed to be made related to the model.
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