论文标题:人民币升值与中国农产品进出口贸易
China"s International Trade of Agricultural Products and the Revaluation of the RMB Through Classification and Structure
论文作者
论文导师 朱晶,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国际贸易
论文单位 南京农业大学,点击次数 177,论文页数 55页File Size3996K
2007-06-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_452099692/
RMB revaluation;; Agricultural trade;; Trade structure;; Flexibility
农业是一国的基础产业。中国作为世界上的农业大国和农业人口最多的国家,农业问题更应该引起关注。而农业问题中最为重要的农产品国际贸易问题,正是焦点中的焦点所在。 2005年7月21日,央行宣布调整人民币汇率制度。截至2007年3月12日,人民币对美元已经累计升值4.7%。种种迹象表明,人民币仍有升值的可能。面临着人民币升值的压力,国际贸易首当其冲将会受到影响。那么人民币汇率调整会对我国农产品贸易收支产生什么样的影响?根据常识,如果人民币继续升值,将会导致农产品进口的增加和出口的减少,不利于我国对农产品外贸易状况的改善,也会影响到我国农业的发展和农民收入水平的提高,对国家的粮食安全造成威胁。 在研究汇率与农产品进出口关系时,已有分析大多处于宏观层面上,以农产品整体作为研究对象,看其是否满足马歇尔－勒纳条件,即如果进出口弹性绝对值之和大于1,则汇率波动会对贸易收支产生较为明显的影响,反之则影响不明显。但每一类农产品的需求供给弹性各不相同,经本文研究得出,活动物与动物产品是不满足马歇尔-勒纳弹性的,汇率变动不会对其贸易收支造成显著影响;植物产品、动植物油脂及其分解产品和动植物蜡、食品饮料酒及醋烟草等制品,均富有弹性。 我国改革开放以来,农产品的进出口结构发生了比较大的变化。因此,简单分析来看,我国农产品的进出口汇率弹性并不是一个恒定不变的值,而是随着农产品结构的变化而改变。所以,将农产品的总进出口量作为单一的一个变量,来分析进出口的汇率弹性,从前提上假设了农产品的进出口弹性是恒定不变的,不能很好地反映农产品进出口贸易的现实。而在此基础上衡量人民币升值对农产品贸易以及农业的影响,忽略了农产品贸易结构变化的因素,更需进一步的商榷。 所以,本研究将农产品进行类别上的细分,分别研究每一类别的农产品进出口弹性,再结合时间上农产品贸易结构动态发展的变化趋势,来看待人民币升值对农产品总进出口、各类农产品进出口,以及贸易结构的影响,在理论上将更加具有说服力。这正是本文的理论意义所在。 经过本文实证分析,得出以下结论:如果人民币升值,那么我国农产品中,加工农产品所受到的冲击将会大于初级农产品;会受到较大伤害的是广大的农产品加工企业。从分类上讲,畜牧饲养以及糖类、粮食类作物种植的产业,将不会受到升值的太大冲击,而蔬菜水果、水海产品捕捞及加工、油类作物的种植及其加工企业等,将会受到比较严重的打击。 因此,政府应重点扶持农产品加工企业,尤其是中小农产品加工企业,对某些弹性较大的行业增加投资,调整和优化农产品结构,为农产品出口寻找新的优势,并努力实现规模化和产业化。
Agriculture is the basic industry of a country. As a large agricultural country and having the largest population of peasantry in the world, China must pay more attention on agricultural issues. Above all, the most important problem is the international trade of agricultural products. The PBC announced to adjust the exchange rate system on July 21, 2005. By March 12, 2007, the accumulated appreciation of RMB against dollar had increased to 4.7%. There are indications that the renminbi may keep on appreciating. Faced with the pressure of RMB"s appreciation, the international trade will be affected first. How would the appreciation of RMB impact on China"s agricultural trade balance? According to common sense, the continuing appreciation of the renminbi would lead to a serial of problems, such as an increase in imports and the reduction of exports on farm produce, deteriorate the international trade situation of agricultural products, embarrass the development of China"s agriculture, decrease the farmers" income, pose a threat to the country"s food security. There are many researches on the influence of exchange rate on the agricultural products imports and exports, of which mostly on the gross point of view and measure with the Marshall-Lerner condition. The fluctuations of domestic currency will have a more significant impact on balance of trade if the gross absolute value of the imports flexibility and the exports flexibility is larger than one, otherwise it would not be obvious. However, the flexibilities of each type of agricultural products are different. As a part of research, this issue has calculated that the flexibility of live animals and animal products is not accord with the Marshall-Lerner condition, but the Plant products, Animal and Vegetable Oil, Fats and Waxes, Refined Edible Oils and Fats, Foods, Beverages, Liquor and Vinegar, Tobacco and Tobacco Substitutes. The last two have greater flexibility, for which the appreciation of RMB would significantly affect its trade balance and reduce the surplus or expand the deficit. The percentage of the each kind in the imports and exports of agricultural products has been changing since 1978. The percentage of Live animals and animal products rose at first and then dropped, on the other way the percentage of plant products dropped at first and then rose up. The percentage of Animal and Vegetable Oil, Fats and Waxes, Refined Edible Oils and Fats are so small that can nearly do nothing to the gross balance of agriculture products trade. The changes in Foods, Beverages, Liquor and Vinegar, Tobacco and Tobacco Substitutes are basically at the state of decline. Therefore, as a simple analysis, the flexibility of exchange rate of imports and exports on agricultural products in China is not fixed but changes along with the change of agricultural structure. So it"s not appropriate to analyze the flexibility on the total imports and exports of agricultural products as a single variable. It premised an assumption that the elasticity of the imports and exports of agricultural products remains constant. As a result, it is not properly to show the reality of trade on agricultural products. Based on it, the method in which analyses the impact of RMB revaluation on international trade need for further discussion again as it ignores the changes in the structure of agricultural trade. Besides, as the flexibility of different types of agricultural products are different, if the RMB appreciates, it will affect on the structure of agricultural imports and exports, afterwards impact the development of agricultural industry. As a result, this study will classify agricultural products on the sub-category, analyses the flexibility in each category. Then combine with the dynamic development of trade in agricultural products on time trends to test the total impacts of the appreciation of the RMB on imports and exports of agricultural products. And then, it will forecasts the changes on trade structure. It would be more convincing in theory. This is the significance of this theory. After empirical analysis has come to the following conclusions : If there is an appreciation of the renminbi, on the aspect of China"s agricultural products, there will be greater impacts on primary agricultural products than that of processing and packaging of agricultural products; will be hurt by the large number of large enterprises in the processing of agricultural products. From the classification the impact of appreciation on animal husbandry and sugar, grain crops grown industries, will be softly and smoothly, and of fruits, vegetables, water fishing and seafood processing, oil crop cultivation and processing enterprises. will be a serious blow. To deal with the problem, the government should give special support to agricultural products processing enterprises, especially small and medium-sized agricultural products processing enterprises, greater flexibility for certain industries to increase investment, readjust and optimize the structure of agricultural produce, agricultural exports to search for a new edge, and strive to achieve economies of scale and industrialization.
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