论文标题:非经营性城市基础设施项目融资中的影子收费研究
The Study on Shadow Tolls in Non-Profit Urban Infrastructure Financing
论文作者
论文导师 金雪军,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 浙江大学,点击次数 166,论文页数 82页File Size4624k
2005-11-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_4972547/
Non-profit Urban Infrastructure Financing; Shadow Tolls; Shadow Tolls Pricing; Risk Evaluation; Sensitivity Analysis; Monte Carlo Simulation
非经营性城市基础设施是城市经济与社会发展不可缺少的物质载体,对推动城市经济增长具有显著的作用。目前,传统的融资方式无法有效解决非经营性城市基础设施项目融资问题,影子收费方法不失为一种有效的尝试。这种方法使得该类设施项目产生了正的现金流而得以吸引到私人资本的参与,解决了政府资金短缺的难题。影子收费方式的实质是政府出面组建项目公司以明晰产权,通过度量项目产生的社会效益来确定其影子价格,从而为资源的优化配置提供了可能。 定价研究和风险评估构成了影子收费的核心内容。对于可测定服务量的项目而言,影子收费定价需要经历流量测算、合理划分流量区间、确定各区间政府支付函数等步骤。对于不可测定服务量的项目而言,由于没有显性流量指标可以采用,需要借用相关的行业性、区域性指标替代流量指标,其他步骤的处理方法类同。定价研究的结果可以用来估算项目未来的现金流以及政府的期望资本成本,是风险评估的基本输入。风险评估可以针对政府、民间投资方和债权人等不同利益主体进行分析:对政府而言,利率变动是最大的风险因素,可以借助敏感性分析,计算利率波动对预期资本成本的影响;对民间投资方而言,交通流量的不确定性是最大的风险因素,可以运用蒙特卡罗模拟计算风险值VaR;对债权人而言,项目经营成本变动会带来风险,敏感性分析可以揭示成本因素与债权人利益之间的对应关系。风险评估的结果揭示了影子收费合约安排上的特点,它建立在政府期望将风险从公共部门转移到私人部门的基础上,所以风险溢价问题往往是谈判双方争执的核心内容,这将要求政府尽量给予项目公司政策上的支持并减少政策的变动以使得私人部门与公共部门更有效率的结合。
Non-profit urban infrastructure, which is an indispensable material carrier of economy and society development, has a prominent impact on economic growth of a city. At present, traditional financing methods can"t efficiently solve the problems of non-profit urban infrastructure financing; thus shadow tolls can be an effective attempt. It brings in positive cash flows in the provision of such infrastructure; therefore attract private capital to join in long-term contractual agreements of these capital intensive projects. This rescues the government from lack of public funds. The essential of shadow tolls is that government clarifies property right by establishing Project Company, prices the project based on its social benefits, and then opens possibility of resource configure optimization.Pricing and risk evaluation are the core contents of the study on shadow tolls. Shadow tolls payment structure of the projects whose service quantity can be measured will be set out based on the following steps: service quantity measurement (i.e. traffic volume), definition of volume levels, payment bands pegged to volumes determination, etc. As for projects whose service quantity can not be measured, the payment structure will be set out based on some correlated industrial index or local index instead of explicit volume index. Results of pricing can be applied to estimate the future cash flows and expected capital cost paid by government; they are the basic inputs of risk evaluation. It is important to view at the nature and quantum of risk from the different perspectives of the main parties to the projects such as public sector, private sector and lenders. Interest rate is the main risk factor to the public sector and the fluctuating range of expected capital cost paid by government can be obtained from sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty of service quantity is the main risk factor to the private sector and Monte Carlo Simulation can generate the probability distributions of possible outcomes and calculate the value at risk. Operating cost is the main risk factor to the lenders and sensitivity analysis can indicate the relationship between cost factors and lenders" benefits. Results of risk evaluation reveal the characteristics of shadow tolls contractual arrangements. They are founded on the transfer of risk from the public to the private sector, thus risk premium is the core problem of business negotiations. It requires more political support from the government and less changes on those policies to make a fuller engagement of the private sector effective.
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