论文标题:复杂性哲学视野下的路径依赖思想研究
The Studies of the Thought of Path Dependence upon the Perspectives of Philosophy of Complexity
论文作者 梅可玉
论文导师 吴彤,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 科学技术哲学
论文单位 清华大学,点击次数 167,论文页数 103页File Size892k
2004-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_49787402/ 路径依赖, 复杂系统, 复杂性哲学
path dependence , complex systems, philosophy of complexity
本文从复杂性哲学的视角,就国内外对路径依赖概念和思想的有关研究文献进行大量调研的基础上,把路径依赖概念置于复杂性科学运动发展的大背景中进行考察,比较系统地论述了路径依赖概念产生的理论背景和社会经济背景;从科学哲学的角度,对路径依赖和其他复杂性术语:耗散结构、混沌、分岔、突变、模拟退火、复杂适应系统、适切性景观、自组织临界性、自组织进行了初步的辨析。在第三章,对路径依赖进行了案例分析。 在案例分析之后,考察了路径依赖概念在制度变迁中的理论应用和发展。结果发现,路径依赖思想和演化博弈论相互渗透,借助演化博弈论这一分析工具,当代社会科学已经能够从理论上破译制度变迁的路径依赖机制和微观动力机制。在文章的结语部分第四章,根据上述的研究成果,讨论了路径依赖研究的哲学启示。1研究路径依赖思想对复杂性哲学研究的意义。路径依赖概念丰富了人们对于复杂系统演化行为特征的认识,有助于破除人们对于自身完全理性和工具理性的建构主义痴迷。。2研究路径依赖思想的科学哲学意义。(1)路径依赖概念作为复杂性概念群中的又一个隐喻性术语,它具有非常丰富的科学内涵,它的诞生,事实上是当代复杂性科学运动中科学观变革带来的一个重大发现;(2)从科学发展的“范式”角度看,路径依赖的研究与演化博弈论的思想互相渗透,二者有可能整合成一个统一的科学范式。(3)路径依赖与复杂适应系统(CAS)、适应的非线性网络(ANN)的基本思想是完全相通的,只不过各自强调的侧重点不同。CAS强调由于适应性造就复杂性;ANN强调由于“组织方式”的不同带来复杂性的生长;路径依赖则强调由于“历史的记忆作用”带来正反馈可能导致“锁定”;事实上,三者后面的复杂性本质就在于,系统要素之间的非线性相互作用造成涌现,不可逆或对称性破缺。就整个复杂性运动的发展走向看,复杂性研究是一个跨学科的难题,通过对路径依赖和其他复杂性术语的探讨,有助于深化对复杂性和复杂性科学的认识。
This thesis first systematically expounds the background of the theory and social economy why the concept of path dependence comes into being, upon the perspectives of complexity of philosophy and investigation into a good great deal of literatures related to the research of the idea and concept of path dependence. From the standpoint of philosophy of science, this paper differentiates and analyzes the relationships and differences between the concept of path dependence and other terms of complexity, including dissipative structure, chaos, bifurcation, catastrophe , simulative annealing , complex adaptive systems ,fitness landscapes, self-organized criticality ,and self-organization; then it answers the question of “why we need the concept of path dependence” and , reviews it under the big background of the movement of complexity sciences. Furthermore, Chapter 3 makes Case Analyses , concerning nuclear energy technology; computer technology,and video mode technology.Because the concept of path dependence has- been introduced into the research of the change of institutions and technology from the perspective of economics, and expounded sufficiently, we have no reason to neglect this trend of development of the concept and thought of path dependence. After case analyses, we investigate its application and development in the domain of institutional change. AS a result, we find, the thought of path dependence and evolutionary game theory penetrates into one another .In virtue of the analyzing tool of evolutionary game theory , in the contemporary era, social sciences have been able to decode the path dependence mechanism of institutional change and microcosmic dynamical mechanism .On the other hand, from the perspective of the change of technology, the present research finds that the path dependence origins from increasing returns, which origins from the endogeneous growth of knowledge. At the end of the paper, based on the above findings, we provide certain implications of path dependence research for the study of complexity philosophy, and even the philosophy of science in general:First of all, this thesis reveals the significance of the thought of path dependence for the study of philosophy of complexity. The concept of path dependence enriches our understanding of the characteristics of the evolutionary behavior of complex systems, especially, against the big contemporary background of large scale transition of social systems in oriental camps, offers us a new reflection on the institutional changes. It is helpful for us to eliminate a superstition of absolute unbounded rationality and infatuation to the instrumental rationality of constructivtism. Acting as a new metaphorical term among the clusters of complexity concepts , the concept of path dependence emphasizes the significance of the time factor in the process of he evolutionary behavior of complex systems, historical hysteresis effects(positive feedback and the danger of lock-in) and ,the characteristic of non- determinism( multiple equilibria).Furthermore, this research displays the significance of the thought of path dependence for the study of philosophy of sciences. Hence, we may reach the following conclusions : (1)the concept of path dependence is not only the concept of economics, but also abundance of scientific meaning, alike the concepts of complexity, such as dissipative structure, chaos, bifurcation, catastrophe , simulative annealing , complex adaptive systems ,fitness landscapes, self-organized criticality ,and self-organization; it is a new discovery of sciences during the movement of complexity sciences today; (2)upon the perspectives of growth of “paradigm” of sciences, the thought of path dependence and evolutionary game theory penetrates each other, according to the latest working papers of path dependence, which also employ evolutionary game theory as an analytical tool, they could be integrated into an unified scientific paradigm. Maybe game theory and complexity theory are one thing in essence fr
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