论文标题:城市多水源复合系统分析及合理配置研究
Study on Composite Systems Analysis of Urban Multi-source Water Resources and Reasonable Allocation
论文作者
论文导师 许士国,论文学位 博士,论文专业 水文学及水资源
论文单位 大连理工大学,点击次数 22,论文页数 129页File Size7835K
2008-01-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_507138072/
Urban water resources;; Multi-source water composite system;; Reasonable Allocation;; Harmony and Evolvement of system
水资源是人类生存和经济社会发展的物质基础,是不可替代的重要自然资源。随着人口的增长、社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,有限的水资源供给量和不断增长的需求量之间已形成尖锐矛盾,这一矛盾在城市发展中显得尤为突出。水资源短缺、水污染和水资源浪费并存,是城市水资源供需矛盾形成的重要原因。城市水资源直接关系着城市的生存与兴衰,直接制约和影响着城市建设及经济的发展,它是城市中最重要最宝贵的资源,具有极其重要的地位。如何解决城市建设中的水问题,关系到城市的现代化建设和可持续发展。水事活动不是孤立的技术活动,也不是单纯的经济活动,而是与自然,社会诸多过程交织在一起的统一体。水资源、社会、经济、生态环境之间相互促进、相互制约、相互作用共同构成了一个复杂的系统。系统地研究水资源与社会、经济、生态环境之间的关系,以及城市各种水资源在多部门之间合理分配,将会对促进城市人水和谐、经济社会与环境的全面协调发展起到重要的指导作用。鉴于此,本文从城市水资源与用水户的特点出发,进行了包括城市用水模拟预测,水资源—社会—经济—生态环境复合系统动力学仿真,城市多水源多用户的合理配置,以及水资源复合系统协同演化分析等方面的研究工作,主要内容如下: (1)城市水资源及其需求分析研究。详细地分析了城市多水源多用户的特点,并进行了城市用水预测的研究。城市用水量由于受经济、人口、生活水平等多种因素的影响,具有一定的灰色特征。本文将遗传算法与多变量灰色模型相结合,提出了具有可变参数的优化遗传算法多变量灰色模型,并以大连城市用水为例进行了实例应用研究。 (2)水资源复合系统动力学仿真研究。水资源、社会、经济、生态环境之间相互制约,相互促进,相互耦合,共同作用构成了一个复杂的系统(简称为水资源复合系统)。系统动力学具有处理非线性、多变量、信息反馈、时变动态性的能力,最适用于研究复杂系统的结构、功能与行为。本文利用系统动力学方法,以大连城市为例构建了一个水资源—社会—经济—环境的复合系统动力学模型,并进行系统仿真模拟的研究。 (3)基于水质与水量的多水源多用户合理配置。水质与水量是构成水资源的基本要素。本文根据分质供水的思想,构建了城市多水源多用户合理配置系统结构,在充分考虑了资源、环境、经济协调发展的基础上构建了配置的模型。采用多目标逐步宽容约束法(STEM)对该模型进行求解。以大连城市2010、2015、2020规划水平年的供需水量为例进行多水源多用户的合理配置研究。 (4)水资源复合系统协调演化分析。水资源复合系统是一个开放的复杂系统,由于受外部环境扰动和内部涨落的影响,在不断地发生着系统的演替和变化。系统的“熵”是系统无序程度的一个度量。本文提出了一种将信息熵与系统协调性指数相结合来判断系统演化方向的方法。最后以大连城市为例进行水资源复合系统协调演化的分析。 最后对全文做了总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
Water, a necessary and vital natural resource, is physical basic to the human survival and to the development of economy and society. With increasing of population, developing of socioeconomic and advancing of people"s living standard, an acuity conflict between limited water resources supply and increasing water demand is coming into being, and it is especially prominent during urban development. Water resources shortage, water pollution, and water waste are the primary causes, which form the conflict between urban water supply and demand. However, urban water resource is directly related with the existence and prosperity of city, and it directly restricts and affects urban construction and development of economy. Urban water resource is important and precious resource to city, it plays a significant role. How to resolve the water problem during urban development is related with urban modernization construction and sustainability development. Water affairs are not only technology activities, and also not only economy activities, but connected with nature, society and interweave into a unity. Water resource, society, economy and environment, which mutual promoting, restricting and action, come into being a complex system. It is important guidance for promoting harmony among human, water resource, economy society and environment to study relationship between water resource and society, economy, environment and allocation of multi-source water among multi-user in city detailedly. Therefore, in this paper, from the characteristics of urban water resources and water users, urban water consumption forecast and modeling, simulation of composite system dynamics of water resource-society-economy-environment, reasonable allocation of urban multi-source water for multi-user and the analysis of harmony and evolvement of water resources composite system are studied. The main contents are as follows: (1) Urban water resource and analysis of its demand. After detailed analysis of the characteristics of urban multi-source water and multi-user, the forecast of urban water consumption has been studied. Owing to the influence of economy, population, living standard and so on, the urban water consumption has certain grey characteristics. In this paper, the genetic algorithm is adopted and combined with the multi-variable grey model (MGM (1, n)), and a Multi-variable model (MGM (1, n, q)) based on Genetic Algorithm has been established, which has been applied to forecast Dalian city urban water consumption. (2) Study on water resources composite system dynamics simulation. Through the relationship of mutual restricting, promoting, coupling and action among water resource, society, economy, and environment, a complex system (named as water resources composite system) has been formed. Due to the characteristics of non-linear, multivariable, information feedback and temporal dynamic, the system dynamics is suit to study the structure of complex system. In this paper, using the method of system dynamics, a water resource composite system dynamics model in Dalian city has been established, which to study system simulation. (3) Reasonable allocation of multi-source water for multi-user based on water quality and quantity. Water quality and quantity are all the basic factors of water resources. According to idea of water supply based on water quality, the system structure frame of urban water resources of multi-source water for multi-user is built, and at the same time a reasonable allocation model of multi-source water for multi-user is developed based on harmony of resource, environment and economy. The Step method is adopted to solve the multi-objective model. This model has been applied to the reasonable allocation of multi-source water for multi-user of Dalian city in 2010, 2015 and 2020. (4) Analysis of harmony and evolvement of water resources composite system. As an opening complex system, influenced by the disturbing from outside and fluctuating from inside, water resources composite system have an evolvement and changing process. The "entropy" is a measurement to systemic confusion extent. In this paper, the harmony exponent of system is combined with information entropy to judge the systemic evolvement direction. This method has been applied to analysis of harmony and evolvement of water resources composite system in Dalian city. In the last part, the whole paper is summarized and some promising issues are discussed.
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