论文标题:贵州能源经济发展研究
论文作者
论文导师 杨保建,论文学位 博士,论文专业 管理科学与工程
论文单位 昆明理工大学,点击次数 69,论文页数 175页File Size13821K
2007-05-25论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_52646957/
energy economy; model ; evaluation ; countermeasure; Guizhou
本博士论文“贵州能源经济发展研究”，是针对在贵州省社会经济发展全局中具有重大战略意义的能源经济发展问题，并以此申报的2004年国家哲学社会科学课题(项目批准号04xjy001)而确定的。 能源是人类社会进步和发展的重要物质基础，是实现经济增长的重要生产因素。在二十一世纪，能源不仅成为全球性、战略性的问题，对于国家基本经济单元——省(区)而言，也是关系其发展的关键性、基础性问题。贵州是一个欠开发、欠发达的内陆省份，工业发展相对较为滞后，但是具有良好的能源资源禀赋，是我国重要的能源基地。能源开发在推进贵州新型工业化进程中的作用也尤为重要，能源产业应成为其主导型支柱产业，能源经济对于贵州经济社会发展将产生巨大的影响。因此，贵州能源禀赋一方面给经济发展带来了新的机遇，可以成为新的增长级；另一方面，按照科学发展观的要求，传统的能源开发模式已经远远不能适应新型工业化的需要，能源经济可持续发展就成为现实的必然选择。此外，以牺牲环境和过度消耗资源为代价换取经济发展的增长方式，将对能源禀赋产生巨大的和毁灭性的破坏，已经不能满足与适应经济发展的需求。 为此，树立科学的可持续发展思想，探索贵州能源经济发展总体思路，把贵州建设成为我国能源大省和南方重要的能源基地，使贵州潜在的能源资源优势转化为现实的经济优势，建立能源支柱产业，促进贵州经济社会协调、可持续发展，具有现实而长远的历史意义。对此进行深入研究是必要的、可行的。 本论文根据研究的需要，紧扣贵州能源经济发展全局中具有重大影响的问题，运用文献研究、归纳演绎法、实证分析与规范分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法，运用管理学、数理与应用统计学、宏观经济学、微观经济学、产业经济学、能源经济学等研究工具对贵州能源经济进行了研究。 论文分四部分，一是对贵州能源资源与能源产业进行分析，二是对贵州能源发展评价，三是建立贵州能源需求模型并进行应用研究，四是制定贵州能源经济可持续发展的对策。 论文研究所取得的成果如下： (1)建立了贵州能源需求模型，针对贵州经济发展中能源的供需与经济的关系及其发展变化规律，本论文通过对各种能源变量的选择和分析，最终确定了在能源需求量、国内生产总值、产业结构的变化、能源价格等变量的基础上，建立了贵州能源需求模型，科学、合理的定量分析了能源与经济的关系，并预测贵州能源与经济互动的趋势和走向。这尤其为省(市、区)能源与经济研究提供了重要的借鉴和参考，不仅为制定贵州能源经济发展对策提供了可靠的依据，而且也丰富了我国能源需求模型的内容。 (2)按照国家标准修正贵州能源弹性系数。针对未按照国家标准在计算贵州能源生产(消费)弹性系数，从而造成弹性系数产生的较大差异，影响数据对比有效性的问题。本论文按照国家标准进行了重新计算，对贵州能源生产(消费)弹性系数进行了修正。使贵州能源生产(消费)弹性系数与国家和各省的相应系数具有了可比性，还保证了判断能源经济质量的准确性。 (3)构建贵州能源评价体系：针对我国国家层面能源评价体系不完全适用于贵州能源评价的问题，本文建立了遵循3-E理念、体现广义能源安全、由五个因子构成的贵州能源评价指标体系，解决了作为我国能源大省——贵州的能源发展评价问题，并且丰富了我国省(市、区)、尤其是能源禀赋省(市、区)的能源评价体系。 (4)制定贵州能源可持续发展对策：针对贵州能源经济发展中存在的问题，从能源开发规划与能源基地建设、发展能源循环经济、能源科技进步等方面提出了发展贵州能源经济的对策。
This doctorate dissertation, "Research on the Development of Energy Economy in Guizhou" , focuses on the energy economic development which is of great strategic significance in the comprehensive development of Guizhou province. The project, based on the dissertation, is supported by National Philosophy and Social Sciences Fund (Project No. 04xjy001). Energy is the materialistic foundation of the progress and development of human society and also the productive factor affecting the economic growth. Energy is a global and strategic issue in the 21st century as well as a critical and fundamental factor related to the development of provinces, the basic components of the State economy. With rich energy resources, Guizhou is an important energy base. However, Guizhou is still an underdeveloped inland province where the development of industry lags behind the others. The exploration of energy pushes the new-type industrialization. Thus the energy industry should become the dominant pillar. The energy economy will greatly influence the provincial economic and social development. On one hand, the rich energy resources bring up new opportunities for Guizhou to develop its economy. On the other hand, the traditional energy-developing model can not meet the demand of new-type industrialization. Therefore, the sustainable development of energy economy is the inevitable choice. In addition, the way of increasing economy, based on the sacrificing of environment and the excessive consumption of resources, is bound to destroy and damage the energy resources, which can not satisfy and adapt to the demand of the economic development. Therefore, by constructing the concept of scientific sustainable development and finding out the general thoughts of developing energy economy in Guizhou, we should try to build Guizhou into a giant energy province and an important energy base in southern China, through which, the potential energy advantage in Guizhou province can be transformed into actual economic advantage. We should also build energy industry into the pillar one so as to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the economy and society in Guizhou province. It is necessary and practical and of great significance to carry out research on the field mentioned above. Based on the needs of research, this dissertation, focusing on the problems influencing the comprehensive development of energy economy in Guizhou, carries out the research by applying the research methods such as documentary study, the deductive and inductive methods, the empirical and standard analysis, the quantitative and qualitative analysis, and the research tools such as manage, mathematical and applied statistics, macroeconomics and microeconomics, industrial economics and energy economics and etc. The dissertation is divided into four parts. The first part analyses the energy resources and the energy industry in Guizhou. The second part evaluates the development of energy in Guizhou. The third part sets up an energy-demand model and studies its application. The fourth part figures out the countermeasures to develop energy economy sustainably in Guizhou. Results of the research are as following: (1)The energy demand model in Guizhou is set up: According to the relationship between energy and economy in Guizhou, and the dissertation selected and analyzed various energy variables, we finally defined the quantity of energy demand, the gross national product, change of industrial structure and the price of energy , the model of energy demand in Guizhou is set up. This model explains the relationship between energy and the economy scientifically and quantitatively, it also predicts the tendency and direction of the interaction of energy and economy in Guizhou. The model not only provides an evidence to the develop countermeasure of energy economy in Guizhou, but also enriched the content of our country"s energy demand model. (2) Correct the energy elasticity coefficient in Guizhou according to the national standard: Having not calculate energy producing (consumption) elasticity coefficient in Guizhou according to the national standard, there is a large difference of the elasticity coefficient, and the data contrast validation is bring low. This thesis has calculated the elasticity producing (consumption) coefficient again according to the national standard, and corrected the energy elasticity coefficient in Guizhou. So this coefficient can be contracted with the country"s and every corresponding province" s modulus, and avouched for the precision of the economic quality judgment. (3)The energy evaluation system in Guizhou is set up: The energy evaluation system is not suitable for Guizhou, so this thesis build an index system of energy evaluation in Guizhou which is constitutive of five factor layers and follows the 3-E idea. This system solving the problem of the index system of energy development evaluation in Guizhou, and enriched the energy evaluation system of every province, city and district in our country. (4) The countermeasures of sustainable development of energy in Guizhou is mapped out: Focusing on the problem in the development of energy economy in Guizhou, this dissertation, from aspects of exploring and planning energy, constructing energy base, developing energy recycling economy and energy science and technology advancement, put forward countermeasures to develop energy economy in Guizhou.
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