论文标题:中国联通投资价值评估
Investment Valuation of China Unicom Corporation
论文作者 刘颖芳
论文导师 秦荣生,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 工商管理
论文单位 清华大学,点击次数 188,论文页数 114页File Size785k
2004-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_5300382/ 折现现金流量;公司自由现金流量;平均资本成本
DCF; FCFF;WACC
价值评估是根据影响资产基本价值的变量建立模型,或将资产和相似资产的可考察的市场价格比较,从而对资产价值进行估计的评估过程。资产的价值评估模型应用广泛,除了模型本身的评估作用,价值评估可作为选择股票、了解市场动态、规划公司运作、建立投资组合的工具。本文选取了中国联通作为分析对象,采用自上而下的分析方法,用公司自由现金流量模型对中国联通的内在价值进行了评估,并在此基础上得出投资结论。为了系统地展示折现现金流量模型的应用,在行业分析、会计政策分析、财务分析、公司价值评估等各个章节后都有简短的总结,阐述了相应部分的分析重点和容易出现的问题。第二章还对各种价值评估模型的优缺点、适用范围和在我国的应用状况做了概括性的评述。第四章至第九章是本文的核心章节,每个部分是构成价值评估过程的一个环节。第四章对世界电信业和我国的电信业的发展前景从业务环境、公司战略、技术等各个方面做出了预测,并对我国电信业的竞争格局和中国联通所面临的竞争状况进行了分析。第五章是针对中国联通的市场地位、竞争实力和发展策略的阐述。第六和第七章对中国联通的会计政策和财务状况进行了详细的分析,并指出其中分析师在进行企业价值评估中的主要问题,阐述了采用不同的会计政策的影响,对于容易忽视的资产负债表外项目的调整方法也给出了应用的示例。第八章是预测报表的编制,由于行业区别,预测报表的编制方法不能在不同行业或差异化的产品之间通用。文中对中国联通的GSM和CDMA业务收入分别进行预测是十分必要的,对于多产品线或多主营业务的公司而言这也是提高预测准确性的可行办法。第九章选取模型对中国联通进行了价值评估,文中采用的是公司自由现金流量模型,并给出使用该模型的依据,模型的建立过程和原理,从而推导出中国联通的企业价值和股票价格。在此章节结尾还给出了其他企业评估方法的简明比较。中国联通的投资价值分析提供了较完整的折现现金流量法评估企业价值的过程。随着国内投资者对企业内在价值投资理念的重视,作为绝对估值方法的折现现金流量法也将得到广泛的应用。
Valuation is the process of estimating the value of an asset by using a model based on the variables that analyst believes influence the fundamental value of the asset, or comparing it to the observable market value of similar assets. Equity valuation models are used by analysts in a number of ways. Rather than an end unto itself, valuation is a tool which is used in the pursuit of other objectives, such as stock selection, reading the market, projecting the value of corporate actions, planning portfolio investment. China Unicom is the objective company in this thesis, analyzed with top-down approach and discount cash flow model to estimate its intrinsic value. Consequently I propose investment decision based on analysis report. For technically exploring application of DCF model, some chapters, concerning industry analysis, accounting principles and financial statement analysis, provide brief overviews, which stipulate analysis emphases and issues of relevant chapter. Chapter 2 summarizes strengths and weaknesses of models, appropriate utilizations and current domestic applications. Chapters 4 to 9 cover the core issues and each chapter is the composition of valuation processes. Chapter 4 develops forecasts of world telecom industry and China telecom industry by analyzing business phase, corporation strategy and technology development, and also analyses competitive pattern in China telecom industry and threatens faced by China Unicom. Chapter 5 illustrates market status, competitive capability and generic strategy of China Unicom. Chapter 6 and chapter 7 analyze the company accounting principles and financial statements in detail, then discuss the main issues of company valuation, explain the impact of different accounting methods and give some examples on adjustments of off-balance-sheet financing activities which are often neglected by analysts. The topic of chapter 8 is forecast of financial statements. Because of industry diversification, the methods of forecasting financial statement are seldom in common among different industries. So it is necessary to estimate revenues of CDMA and GSM respectively, thus is feasible method to estimate the value of multi-product or multi-business companies more accurately. In context of chapter 9, China Unicom is valued with selective model, the free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) model. There also introduce the approaches and processes of FCFF as well as its rudiments. Thus calculate the value of China Unicom and the value of its equity per share. At the end of this chapter other valuation methods are provided for simple comparison. The investment valuation of China Unicom illustrates comparatively systemic process of DCF approach. With more recognition of corporation intrinsic value by investors, as absolute valuation method, DCF method will deserve more utilization.
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