论文标题:基于博弈论的需求侧分时电价研究
Study on TOU Power Price in Demand Side Based on Game Theory
论文作者
论文导师 任玉珑,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 技术经济及管理
论文单位 重庆大学,点击次数 927,论文页数 62页File Size690K
2006-04-19论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_53127/
Demand Side Management; TOU Power Price; Power Market; Green Electric Power; Game Theory
2003年以来,由于电力需求大于电力供给,导致了我国大面积的缺电现象,给电力市场化改革蒙上了一层不小的阴影;另一方面,我国单位产值电能消耗相对发达国家偏高,电能使用效率不高。为解决以上能源需求增长与供应不足的矛盾和能源使用效率不高的问题,把电力需求侧管理(DSM)作为一种资源纳入电力工业的发展规划、能源发展规划与地区的发展规划已经成为一种非常必要的措施。分时电价是需求侧管理主要手段之一,利用电价信号,引导消费者采取合理用电结构和用电方式,从而实现电力消费的削峰填谷,达到提高电力资源(包括装机、电网和人力资源)的利用效率,节约电力生产投资的目的已成为燃眉之需。本文考虑政府、电力公司和用户三方面利益,研究利用博弈论思想制定一套政府确定电价水平,电力公司确定电价结构和供给水平,用户确定用电量的需求侧分时电价办法。 论文的主要研究工作和结论包括:(1)利用比较分析法,对现有的需求侧电价模型进行剖析,比较现有模型的异同和不足,作为以下研究的基础;(2)利用微观经济学中边际成本理论中发展出来的Ramsey-Boiteux公共品定价模型,通过最高限价的方式下放到被规制企业,将不同时段的电力看作几种相互影响的产品,确定每个时段电力的电价水平,对各时段电价水平进行加成确定政府对电价的限制水平,以保证社会福利;(3)在限价水平的约束下,采用控制论的思想,对电力负荷合理控制的基础上,建立信息对称博弈模型,考虑绿色电力竞争,计算各时段分时电价、电力公司最优供电量及用户相应用电量,并对模型中相关问题进行讨论;(4)对模型中未知参数,设计相关确定办法,并利用Matlab软件对模型进行算例仿真,说明电力公司实际分时电价的制定方法和步骤,验证该分时电价模型的可行性和优越性;(5)结合该分时电价模型提出完善我国需求侧分时电价体系的建议和措施。 本文的研究工作是将博弈论思想运用在电力产供销链终端的需求侧电价制定领域,以解决电力供需矛盾和能源效率问题,本文对电力公司制定合理的需求侧分时电价起到一定的参考作用。
Since 2003, the electric demand have been greater than supply, leading to large areas of the country lack of power, the electricity market reform have been covered with shadow. On the other hand, the value of our units electric power need relatively high raw material consumption, using energy is inefficient. To solve the contradictions of growth in energy demand and supply and the inefficient use of energy, it is necessary to take the electric DSM as a resource development planning of power industry, energy planning and developmental planning of areas. TOU power price is one of the principal means for DSM. Therefore, the use of power price signals has become such a pressing needs, which to guide electric consumers take the reasonable structure and consumption so that electric power company make electric power load mild, achieve greater power efficiency and save electricity production investment. Considered the three interests of government, the power company and users, this thesis focus on studying the use of game theory to establish TOU pricing model, in which government set tariff levels, the power company determine the tariff structure and the level of supply, users determine the consumption. The main research and conclusions of this paper include: (1)Comparative analysis of the existing TOU pricing model as the basis for the study.(2)Use of Ramsey-Boiteux public goods pricing models,which developed from the marginal cost theory, to ensure that social welfare through price-cap regulation. In this method, power are considered as interaction products to decide its tariff levels,and those tariff levels are integrated to determine the level of tariff restrictions.(3)Modelling analysis. Based on price level of restraint,using game method, contolling the electricity load reasonably and considering green electric power competition, this method calculate TOU price, optimal power supply of power company and the consumption of users. Then, related issues of models are discussed.(4)Cases analysis. This paper designs relevant method to confirm unknown parameters of models,then, uses Matlab to simulate the case to show the method and steps for setting TOU price and certificate the feasibility and advantage of this method.(5)Present the correlative recommendations and measures to perfect the demand side TOU system of our country. The study of this paper use game theory to establish the demand side power pricing in the terminal of the supply and marketing chain of electric power, in order to solve the
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