论文标题:人民币升值对中国进出口贸易影响的CGE研究
The Impacts of RMB Appreciation on China"s Terms of Trade: A CGE Analysis
论文作者
论文导师 胡宗义,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 数量经济学
论文单位 湖南大学,点击次数 363,论文页数 55页File Size3286K
2007-11-12论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_53183242/
RMB appreciation;; exchange rate;; trade;; CGE model;; MCHUGE model
汇率是开放经济环境下的核心经济变量，是影响到一个国家进出口贸易发展的重要因素之一。而进出口贸易又直接影响到一个国家的收入和国民福利。近年来，随着中国经济的快速发展和全球经济一体化的不断深入，人民币的汇率升值问题成为了国际关注的热点，并且存在着广泛争议。各方争论的焦点就在于人民币应该以多大的幅度升值为宜。在这样的背景下，本文将尝试利用动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型来分析人民币升值对中国进出口贸易的影响。 全文共分为五章来研究。第一章系统考察了汇率变动对贸易影响的相关文献，全面把握了人民币升值对进出口贸易影响的研究动态，并对CGE模型的理论研究现状进行了分析，为利用CGE模型来研究本文的问题打下了坚实的基础。第二章从理论上剖析了汇率和贸易之间的辨证关系。第三章系统研究了CGE模型的基本理论，并且在此基础上构建了一个研究人民币升值对中国进出口贸易影响的MCHUGE模型。第四章设计了三种不同的汇率升值情景，然后利用MCHUGE模型从贸易条件、宏观经济、产业部门三个层面对人民币升值后我国进出口贸易受到的影响进行了仿真研究，并且对三种不同的情景作了比较分析。第五章根据仿真研究的结果，得出了相关的政策建议，并进行了进一步的研究展望。 本文的创新点在于，首次尝试用动态CGE模型来仿真研究人民币升值对中国进出口贸易的影响，并对三种不同的汇率升值情景进行了比较分析。模拟结果表明，人民币适度升值对进出口贸易以及宏观经济的影响总体上良好，而大幅度升值人民币则会对我国的许多产业部门和宏观经济产生负面影响。而且，单靠大幅 度升值人民币无法解决中国的贸易顺差问题。
Exchange rate is one of the core economic variables in an open economy, which exerts a profound influence on export and import; and export and import are closely related to national revenue and welfare. In recent years, with China"s ever-expanding economy and further integration of global trade, RMB appreciation has become a hot-debated issue. Thus, this paper shall explore a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE)model—MCHUGE to analyze the impacts of RMB appreciation on China"s terms of trade. This paper consists of five parts. Part 1 is literature review which presents the current analysis on China"s export and import under RMB exchange rate fluctuation; it also summarizes the current development of CGE research, making a solid foundation for the further analysis in this paper. Part 2 analyzes the mutual influence between exchange rate and global trade. Part 3 presents the theoretical structure of CGE model and devises the MCHUGE model to analyze the impacts of RMB appreciation on China"s terms of trade. Part 4 sets out three scenarios to analyze the impacts of RMB appreciation on export and import and explains the simulation results from the viewpoint of China"s terms of trade, macro economy and industrial level. Part 5 compares the simulation results under these three scenarios and draws the conclusions as well as the future extension of this research. The major innovation of this paper is that it tries to simulate the effects of RMB appreciation on China"s export and import by a dynamic CGE model and to compare the simulation results in three different scenarios.simulation results show that proper RMB appreciation can better improve the import and exoport, maintaining macro economic stability;on the other hand, sharp increase of RMB exchange rate shall exert negative influence on macro economy and many industries, what is more, firece appreciaiton cannot settle the issue of huge trade surplus in China.
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