论文标题:货币价值论
论文作者
论文导师 陈宪,论文学位 博士,论文专业 政治经济学
论文单位 上海社会科学院,点击次数 609,论文页数 110页File Size714K
2006-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_5319332/
foreign exchange rate; floating exchange rate regime; appreciation of RMB; formation mechanism of exchange rate;balance of payments
汇率是一种货币以另一种货币表示的价格。在没有其他非市场因素影响的条件下,汇率应遵循商品市场的一般规律,即它是由经济活动导致的对这种货币的供给和需求决定的。价格是对价值的反映,通常情况下它是围绕价值波动的。长期而言,在接近完全市场经济的条件下,价格与价值基本上是一致的。所以,本文讨论浮动汇率制条件下的长期汇率生成机制,也就是从一种货币的价值如何由另一种货币来体现这个角度讨论货币的价值生成机制。 自1994年以后,人民币实行严格钉住美元的汇率制度。近年来波动幅度虽有所扩大,但总体来说,人民币的汇率不能有效反映国际经济活动所产生的对它的供需关系。近十几年来,中国相对美国的通货膨胀率、利率、贸易差额、吸收外国资本和外国直接投资的金额都有了巨大变化,而这一时期人民币对美元的汇率基本保持不变,所以,人民币的汇率可能是扭曲的。 随着我国改革开放的进展,我国经济必然要融入世界,人民币实行浮动汇率制已是大势所趋。如果人民币实行浮动汇率制,根据近年来各项经济指标的状况,从宏观经济的原理来说,人民币存在升值压力。但是,仅指出这点是远远不够的。一种货币对另一种货币是否升值,首先要探讨汇率的生成机制;在知道汇率生成机制的条件下,我们才能确切判断汇率是否会变动,以及怎么变动。 探讨人民币是否升值的问题,最理想的方法是确定人民币兑美元长期汇率的生成机制。但由于人民币一直实行固定汇率制,基本经济状况的变化难以从其汇率上得到很好反映,所以,本文选择美元兑日元的汇率以及影响该汇率的各因素作为时间序列的样本,进行回归分析,以确定这两种货币的汇率生成机制。1973年后,这两种货币都实行浮动汇率制,我认为,它们的汇率基本上是由市场因素决定的。再者,美日两国是当今最大的经济体,研究它们的汇率问题所得到的结论应该对其他货币的汇率有较大的借鉴作用。 在确定了经济中对长期汇率有影响的各个指标之后,本文对各指标数据进行实证研究,结果显示:在浮动汇率制条件下,1.通货膨胀率较低的国家,其货币长期来说有升值的趋势;2.利率较高的国家,其货币长期来说有升值的趋势;3.贸易长期呈逆差的国家,其货币长期来说有贬值的趋势;4.接受外国直接投资流
Foreign exchange rate is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another. If without the interference of the non-market factors, the exchange rate will follow the general principle of any commodity markets, say, it will be decided by the supply of and demand for the currency arising from the international economic activities. Price, which in general fluctuates around its value, is the reflection of the latter. In the long run, and under the close-to-perfect market condition, price basically converges to the value. That this article discusses the formation mechanism of the long-run exchange rate in the floating exchange rate regime is to discuss the formation mechanism of the value of a currency in the perspective of how the value of a currency is expressed by another currency. From 1994, RMB observes the strict pegged-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate regime. Although the margins of fluctuation were increased in recent years, generally speaking, the exchange rate of RMB cannot yet effectively reflect its supply and demand relation resulted from the international economic activities. In the recent decade, the relative inflation rates, relative interest rates, trade balances, the amount of the international capital flow and FDI between China and the U.S. have experienced substantial changes, but the exchange rate between the two currencies almost remains unchanged, which is likely to lead to the distortion of the RMB exchange rate. With the progress of China’s reform and opening-up, China will involve more into the world economy. It is an inevitable trend that RMB will adopt the floating exchange rate regime. If RMB becomes floating, according to the economic indice of the recent years, it faces the pressure of appreciation. However, it is far from enough to point this out through the principles of macroeconomics. To decide whether a currency will appreciate against another currency, we’ll first discuss the exchange rate formation mechanism. After we get known of the mechanism can we judge whether the exchange rate will change, and how. The most ideal way to discuss the appreciation of RMB is to find the formation mechanism of the long-run exchange rate between RMB and U.S. dollar. However,
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