论文标题:广西宏观经济景气预测与分析
An Analysis and Forecast of Guangxi"s Macro-Economic Prospects
论文作者 冯海珊
论文导师 宋佰谦,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 应用数学
论文单位 广西大学,点击次数 119,论文页数 59页File Size4659k
2003-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_540473017/ 宏观经济;景气循环;月度回归模型;月度政策干预模型;季度政策干预模型
Macro-economy prospects circulation;monthly regressive model;monthly policy interference model;quarterly policy interference model
经济波动是经济发展的正常规律。经济总是不断地由扩张走向收缩，又从收缩走向扩张。人们通常把这一过程称为景气循环。我们不可能使经济永远处于繁荣时期，但却希望能够掌握经济变动的规律，以便能够提前采取相应的调控政策，保证经济得以持续、健康地运行。 本文根据广西区统计局1994年1月至2002年12月的统计数据，综合运用计量经济学、统计学、经济增长理论、预测与决策技术、时间序列分析技术和计算机技术等理论和技术，建立起月度回归模型、月度政策干预模型和季度政策干预模型，用这些模型对政府积极财政政策、投资政策和外经外贸政策进行了模拟和比较分析，并用季度政策干预模型对广西未来的经济进行了预测，对投资、消费、居民收入、外经外贸及财政金融等预测结果进行了综合分析。在这项研究的基础上，本文得出结论：广西经济是一个政策干预型经济，政府的宏观经济政策在经济发展中占有重要位置。针对当前广西经济存在的问题，本文最后提出了若干对策建议，包括增加农村居民收入、加强城镇化建设和加快工业化建设步伐等。 由于月度模型的编制是一个十分繁杂的过程，为解决这一问题，本文设计了相应的计算机软件。该项工作具先进性，为从事景气研究的人们提供了一个良好的工作平台。
Economic fluctuation is a normal phenomenon of economic development. It is always presented a circulation movement that economy shifts from booming to recession and then from recession to booming continually. Normally, the process is called the economic prosperity circulation .It is impossible to let the economic situation stay in the period of booming forever. However, we hope to know precedently the trend of fluctuation of macro-economy so as to put forward the related policies, properly and correctly, to guide economy developing continually and healthily.By using the statistical data from January of 1994 to December of 2002, with the help of the theories of econometric statistics % time serial analysis^ forecast and police-making , this paper build a monthly regressive model, a monthly policy interference model and a quarterly policy interference model .And by these models, I make a simulation and comparative analysis about the active policy of the government budget, investment policy and foreign trade policy of Guangxi. And by using the quarterly policy interference model, I furthermore make a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation of Guangxi on the basis of the forecast values of the investment, consumption, inhabitant incomes,foreign trade, government budget and finance. Basing these researches, I formed an idea that the economy of Guangxi is still an economy under the interference of government policies and the macro-control polices of the government will occupy an important position in leading the direction of Guangxi economy. In view of the severe problems occurring during the development of the economy, the paper puts forward several countermeasures of policy, including improving the income of rural inhabitant and strengthening the construction of towns and cities, and pushing forward the industrialization construction, etc.The process to build the monthly model is very complex. To solve the problem, 1 develop a computer software. This work fills a blank in the area of applying software of economic prosperity and provides a good research platform for the researchers in the area of the macro-economic prosperity researches.
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