论文标题:基于景气预测技术的宏观经济监测预警系统的设计与实现
Study on Incentive Mechanism of the Interface between Venture Capital Company and Venture Enterprise
论文作者 谭德彬
论文导师 晏永胜,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 西南财经大学,点击次数 784,论文页数 67页File Size592k
2004-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_542037/ 经济周期;监测预警;系统设计;系统开发
Economic cycle; Monitor and early warn; designed; Develop;
在经济发展过程中，平衡是相对的，不平衡是绝对的，这种不平衡性表现为经济发展过程中的波动性，即经济周期或经济循环。众所周知，经济周期对经济发展的影响巨大，因而如何有效地建立宏观经济发展的监测预警系统，就成为宏观经济管理的一个重要目标。宏观经济监测预警系统是通过预先选定好的一些经济指标，运用统计数据或抽样资料，加以统计分析，计算出经济运行的状况，提出宏观调控的适度界限，并对经济景气情况进行预报等。因此，建立宏观经济的监测预警系统，不仅可以使经济管理部门及时、准确地把握经济运行的脉搏，而且还可以对未来的发展趋势做出超前判断，以便适时适度地采取措施进行宏观调控，达到稳定、高效发展经济的目的。建立经济监测预警系统可以起到以下三个方面的作用：1、正确评价当前宏观经济运行状态；2、准确预测未来宏观经济形势可能发展的趋势；3、及时反映宏观经济调控的效果等。宏观经济监测预警系统软件是为了把握宏观经济的发展态势和波动规律，全面、准确、及时地获取宏观经济运行状态、未来走势，以及经济景气动向的观测分析资料等信息，为宏观经济管理部门和研究机构进行宏观经济形势分析、景气循环测定和预测提供工具，为各级政府用户和社会用户提供经深加工的分析预测而开发的一个软件系统。笔者曾参与此项目的设计并开发两个模块，在此过程中，我投入了大量的时间和精力，学习和掌握了解丰富的统计学和宏观经济方面的知识，本论文就是对学习和开发该系统过程中自己的学习心得和开发经验的一个总结。总体来讲，本论文共分为六章：第一章主要介绍了政府经济运行管理信息系统（GEOMIS）的来源与主要内容及开发政府经济运行管理信息系统的意义。 第二章主要论述了经济周期波动理论。本章首先从经济增长到经济波动，再到经济周期的描述，然后介绍了解释经济周期的各种理论，它主要包括消费不足理论、外部因素和内部因素理论、创新理论、货币因素论和投资周期理论等。第三章主要论述了经济监测预警的基本理论。文章首先介绍了宏观经济监测预警的基本含义，即宏观经济监测预警系统，是通过预先选定好的一些经济指标，运用统计数据或抽样资料，加以统计分析，计算出经济运行的状况，提出宏观调控的适度界限，并对经济景气情况进行预报等。其目的不仅可以使经济管理部门及时、准确地把握经济运行的脉搏，而且还可以对未来的发展趋势做出超前判断，以便适时适度地采取措施进行宏观调控，达到稳定、高效发展经济的目的。然后又介绍了建立宏观经济监测预警的意义，即正确评价当前宏观经济运行状态、准确预测未来宏观经济形势可能发展的趋势并及时反映宏观经济调控的效果等。第四章主要介绍了建立宏观经济监测预警的基本技术。宏观经济动态监测预警分析主要采用的技术为：景气预测技术。景气预测技术主要包括以下几个步骤：景气指标选择、对景气指标的时间序列进行季节调整、计算扩散景气指数、计算合成景气指数以及景气信号灯等。在文章中，笔者依次介绍了一致扩散指数、一致合成指数和景气信号灯的含义、计算方法以及指标的意义等。第五章主要介绍了宏观经济监测预警模块的设计。在本章中，笔者依次介绍了总体框架设计、监测预警子模块设计、指标的选择和数据库设计几个方面的内容。第六章则主要介绍了宏观监测预警系统模块的实现过程。因为根据前面的分析可知，宏观监测预警系统模块主要包括三个方面的内容，也就是一致扩散指数、一致合成指数和景气信号灯。因而笔者先后介绍了这三个指数的详细编制过程，即它们的指标选择问题、算法思路及详细计算过程、具体的编程代码（仅列出了重要的部分）和最后运行时的图形界面等。 后记则主要分析了本系统的局限性和一些不足的地方，如系统的适用范围问题，使用的一致性问题以及使用的准确性问题等。通过对这些问题的分析，使我更加清醒地认识到本系统需要完善的地方还有许多，这一方面给了自己的压力，同时也给自己动力，它将不断地促使我应不断努力来完善本系统。
In the course of economic development, it is relative to make a balance, but is absolute to be an unbalance. The uneven quality is shown as the fluctuation in the economic evolution, i.e. economic cycle or economic circulation. As everyone knows, the impact on economic development is enormous in economic cycle, therefore how to set up a monitoring-warning system of economic developments effectively becomes an important goal for macro economic management.Through selecting some economic indicators in advance, analyzing the statistical materials by statistics, calculating the states of economical operation, the macro economic monitoring-warning system is putting forward the appropriate demarcation line of macro adjustments and controls, and carrying on prediction the prosperous situation of economy, etc. So, setting up the monitoring-warning system of macro economy can enable the economic administrative departments not only to be aware of the pulse of economical operation in time accurately, but also make judgments on the developing trend in the future, which aims at taking measures to carry on macroeconomic controls appropriately, and developing economy steadily and high-efficiently.Setting up monitoring-warning system can play three following functions:Appraising the present macro economical operation correctly; Predicting the developing trend of the macro economy in the future accurately; Reflecting the effect of macro economic regulation and control in time, etc.The software of macro economic monitoring-warning system is developed for the purpose of knowing the macro economy developing status and rules of fluctuating, obtaining the macro economical operating status and tendency in the future fully, accurately and promptly; and analyzing the information of the tendency on economic prosperity, carrying on macro economic situation analysis, in addition to provide available tools for the administrative departments of the macro economy and research institutions on measuring prosperous circulation.I participated in the Government Economic Operation Management Information System (GEOMIS) design and developed two pieces of modules. During this course, I invested a large amount of time and energy, studied and grasped about abundant knowledge on statistics and macro economy. This thesis is the summary of my studying gains and developing experience in this systematic course.Generally, this thesis is divided into six chapters: Chapter one introduces the establishment and the main contents and meaning of Government Economical Operation Manage Information System (GEOMIS).Chapter two expounds the theory of economic fluctuation and economic cycle. This chapter arises the economic fluctuation from economy improvement at first, then the description in economic cycle, and then recommends explaining various kinds of theories of economic cycle, including the theories of inadequate consumption, external factors, inside factor, and innovative theory, currency factors theory and investment cycle theory, etc. Chapter three expounds the basic theory of economy monitoring and pre-warning. This chapter recommends the basic meaning of the macro economy monitoring and pre-warning at first, namely the macro economy monitoring-warning system. The system, through selecting some economic indicator in advance, analyzing the statistical materials by statistics, calculating the states of economical operation, is putting forward the appropriate demarcation line of macro adjustments and controls, and carrying on prediction the prosperous situation of economy, etc. So, setting up the monitoring-warning system of macro economy not only can make the economic administrative department hold the pulse of economical operation in time, accurately , can also be made and judges to the development trend in future, so that takes measures to carry on macro adjustments and controls appropriately, in order to develop economy steady and high-efficient.Chapter four introduces the fundamental techniques of setting up macro economy
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