论文标题:汇率变动对中国进出口贸易影响
The Influences of Exchange Rate"s Fluctuation on Import & Export Trade of China
论文作者
论文导师 许统生,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国际贸易学
论文单位 江西财经大学,点击次数 269,论文页数 55页File Size3076K
2006-10-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_559531032/
RMB exchange;Trade flow;Trade structure;Trade terms
本文主要研究了汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响，基于一般汇率的贸易效应理论，采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法，结合中国的经验数据描述了人民币汇率变动对我国贸易流量、贸易结构、贸易条件的影响，并在此基础上提出相应的政策建议。 首先，文章综述了汇率变动对贸易影响的相关理论，阐述了汇率变动对贸易产生的长期和短期的影响效应，定性的分析了1978年后汇率变动与我国贸易的影响。其次，文章采用1985年到2005年的相关年度数据，建立实证模型，运用协整分析方法对汇率与我国的进出口贸易流量的关系进行了具体的定量研究，实证结果表明：我国进出口的汇率弹性都是缺乏弹性的，汇率并不是影响我国贸易流量的主要因素，人民币升值不能缩小我国持续的贸易顺差。第三，文章定量的分析了汇率变动对我国贸易结构的影响。改革开放后人民币汇率经历了数次改革，改善了我国的贸易结构，提升了我国劳动密集型产品的出口竞争力，也使得我国工业制成品的比较优势逐步向高级化纵深发展。但是，人民币汇率的不断贬值，带来了我国贸易条件的恶化，实证分析表明人民币汇率与我国贸易条件呈现出正相关，汇率升值会促使我国贸易条件的改善。最后，在以上研究的基础上，文章就人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响做了简要评价并提出了相关政策建议。
The paper studies the relationship between the exchange rate and international trade, based on the theory of exchange rate"s trade effects, by means of qualitative methods and quantitative methods, combining Chinese empirical surveys to illustrate the influences of the exchange rate fluctuation of RMB on the foreign trade flow, trade structure and trade terms of China, thus puts forward the relative policy recommendation on the basis of the above analysis.Firstly, this paper reviews the related theories of the influences of the exchange rate fluctuation on the foreign, elaborates the short-term and long-term influences of the exchange rate fluctuation on the foreign trade, and analyses influences of the exchange rate of fluctuation of RMB from 1978 on the foreign trade in China qualitatively. Secondly, the paper adopts the yearly survey from 1985 to 2005, establishes empirical model and analyses whether the change of RMB exchange rate influences China"s foreign trade flow. The empirical results show that the importing and exporting elasticity of exchange rate are inelastic and exchange rate is not the major factor which influences our country"s trade flow, the appreciation of RMB doesn"t reduce our country"s continuous trade surplus. Thirdly, the paper analyses the influence of the change of RMB on trade structure in China. Since the opening-up, China has reformed the system of RMB exchange for several times. We can draw a conclusion by empirical analysis that the reforms have improved trade structure in our country, promoted the exporting competitive capacity of labor-intensive products. But the continual depreciation of RMB has worsened our county"s trade term. The empirical results also show that trade terms in our country are related to RMB and the appreciation of RMB will improve trade terms. Finally, this paper makes comments and gives some suggestion on the basis of above analysis.
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