论文标题:长鞭效应及其影响因素的定量研究
H Company Stratagem Investigation of the Global Network-Technique Certification System
论文作者 范璐
论文导师 陈宏,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 数量经济
论文单位 电子科技大学,点击次数 122,论文页数 57页File Size1918k
2004-02-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_593087692/ 长鞭效应;需求预测;灰色关联度;时间延迟
Bullwhip Effect;Demand Forecasting;Gray Relevancy Degree;Delay Time
进入二十世纪,供应链管理越来越成为学术界研究的一个热门领域,而长鞭效应(Bullwhip Effect)正是实施供应链管理中的一个重要障碍。因此也受到越来越多的人关注。如何认识和看待供应链的长鞭效应,它由哪些原因造成以及长鞭效应各种影响因素对长鞭效应有怎样的关联性,我们应该如何改善这些因素等等,对上述问题本论文都做了相应的研究工作。本论文的主要工作及成果如下:1.先从理论上详细的论述了供应链、供应链管理、物流以及物流管理,从而界定了长鞭效应的概念,并对产生长鞭效应的主要原因进行了深入了定性分析。2.为了研究哪些因素对长鞭效应的影响最大,论文首先从一个简单的两阶段的供应链模型入手,采用关联度的方法对长鞭效应的各影响因素进行分析,得出在这个简单的两阶段供应链模型中,提前期与长鞭效应(波动)的关联性最大,相关系数与长鞭效应(波动)的关联性次之,所选择的观测点的个数与长鞭效应(波动)的关联性最小的结论。3.在啤酒对策实验的基础上,对具有零售商、批发商、生产商三个环节的供应链中的长鞭效应各影响因素进行关联度分析,得出不论是生产商采用刚性生产方式还是柔性生产方式,在零售和批发商环节都是时间延迟对长鞭效应的关联性最大;当采用柔性方式的时候,只有在生产商环节时间延迟的关联度才小于市场当期的真实需求水平所占的权重值,其它环节时间延迟对长鞭效应的关联性仍然是最大的。4.在上述分析的基础之上,将系统动力学的原理用于对长鞭效应的分析之中,先画出相应的系统流程图,然后建立了一个简单的库存管理系统的动力学仿真模型。从仿真图形波动的最高点、最低点、产生波动的频率、波动的回稳时间等指标的数字模拟分析,来讨论时间延迟对波动影响的重要性以及各控制参数之间存在不同的关系时对长鞭效应的影响。5.在论文的最后,根据上述的分析研究结果,提出了供应链长鞭效应产生的根源在于供应链中的时间延迟,并针对产生长鞭效应的根源,提出了相应的缓解措施。
Supply Chain Management has become a hotspot for scholars since the 21st century, and Bullwhip Effect is just a crucial obstacle to actualize Supply Chain Management. Thus it attracts more and more attention. A series of problems, such as how to understand and consider Bullwhip Effect of Supply Chain, what’s the most important factor for producing Bullwhip Effect, what’s the relationship among all influencing factors and how to avoid those factors, have been discussed in this paper. The following are the primary work and achievements of this paper:This paper theoretically introduces Supply Chain, Supply Chain Management, Logistics and Logistics Management, and then defines Bullwhip Effect, gives further analysis on the primary factors for producing Bullwhip Effect and the demand forecasting is especially presented.In order to study the influencing factors for Bullwhip Effect from the point of relevancy degree, this paper first study a two-stage SC model and find that delay time has greatest relevancy degree with Bullwhip Effect (fluctuation), correlation coefficient next, and the number of observation point has the smallest relevancy degree with it.Then on the basis of beer game which is a three-stage SC model and quantifying Bullwhip Effect, we carry through the relevancy degree analysis on the factors for engendering Bullwhip Effect. We find that Delay time has greatest relevancy degree with Bullwhip Effect (fluctuation). Based on the above conclusions, we introduce Systemic Dynamics into the analysis of Bullwhip Effect. First we show the corresponding System Flow Chart, and then instruct a simple evaluation model for storage management system. From digital emulating analysis on diversified indexes, such as the culmination, nadir of evaluation graph and its frequency, time of return, we discuss the importance of delay time for fluctuation influence and the influence of variable controlling parameters with different relationships on Bullwhip Effect.In the end of the paper, we bring forward that the germs for producing Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect lie in Delay Time in supply chain. We also show some alleviate measures against those germs.
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