论文标题:汇率制度安排的理论框架与选择方向研究
Research on the Theory Framework of the Exchange Rate Regime Arrangement and on the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime
论文作者 王惠文
论文导师 杨胜刚,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 湖南大学,点击次数 92,论文页数 70页File Size3430k
2004-10-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_603394597/ 汇率制度;M-F模型;角点汇率制度;中间汇率制度;汇率制度选择;汇率目标区
exchange rate regime; M-F model; two poles; intermediate regimes;exchange rate regime choice; exchange rate target zone
随着中国加入WTO，中国在世界经济大舞台的作用日益突出的背景下，如何选择合适的汇率制度，实施恰当的汇率政策，成为开放条件下宏观经济管理的一个重要课题。本文从国际汇率制度的历史变迁分析着手，在对汇率制度的变迁作出历史性描述和经验总结的基础上，分析了现阶段汇率制度安排的主要格局，表面上看来，实行中间型汇率制国家呈下降趋势。事实上，世界很多国家在摸索本国汇率制度的改革过程中，都曾经历了中间型汇率制。因此，现阶段中间汇率制度仍然占据重要地位，这为之后中间汇率制度的理论框架的产生奠定了事实基础。接着，本文在汇率制度安排的基础分析模型基础上，比较研究了固定钉住汇率、浮动汇率以及中间汇率目标区汇率制度，指出没有一种汇率制度是完美的，任何一种汇率制度都存在不足和风险，也没有任何一种汇率制度适合于所有国家和所有国家的任何时期。一种汇率制度是否适合于一个国家，主要应取决于该国特定的经济和金融环境。在此基础上，本文借鉴了目前汇率制度选择因素的几大重要理论，对影响汇率制度选择的因素作出了静态和动态的微观分析，着重阐述了影响汇率制度选择的动态因素，肯定了中期是一国选择其适合国情的汇率制度安排的恰当时期，并用事例检验给出了论证，从而为我国汇率制度的改革指明了方向。由此，在结合汇率制度安排的理论框架基础上，推导出我国尚不满足成功的浮动汇率制度运行所需要的条件，而面对新的国内和国外经济环境，继续维持固定钉住汇率安排，其成本将很高，因此，中期内人民币汇率制度改革的方向应是建立人民币汇率目标区，在对建立人民币汇率目标区进行了可行性研究之后，提出了建立人民币汇率目标区的思路，计算出人民币汇率目标区的基础均衡汇率值和边界值，并指出在建立人民币汇率目标区体制的前提下，从固定钉住汇率制度向汇率目标区制度转换不仅应采取逐步和有序的方式推进，而且要与宏观经济政策和相关的结构改革密切配套进行。
With the entry to the WTO, China is more and more important in the world"s economy. But it is also important to China that how to choose appropriate exchange rate regime and to carry out the relative policy in open, macroeconomical surroundings .Based on the history of international exchange rate regime, this paper compares it to the exchange rate regime arrangement nowadays. Superficially, intermediate regimes descend, but in fact, it is a key role in exchange rate regime"s reform in many countries, which is basic to the creation of the theory analysis. On the basis of the primary model of the exchange rate regime arrangement and examining the advantages and disadvantages under the fixed peg, floating, and target zones exchange rate regimes, the paper states that none of exchange rate regime is perfect or without costs and risks, nor will it work perfectly on every occasion. The exchange rate regime is appropriate for a country or not depending on its specific economic and financial circumstances. By referring to three theories of the exchange rate regime choice, this paper fully elaborates the effect of these dominant factors on exchange rate regime choice, from which infers the coexistence among various exchange rate regimes determined by the discrepancies among these factors. Then deduces exchange rate regime choice being a dynamic transition process and confirms the intermediate regimes are suitable for the reform of the exchange rate regime. According to the analysis of the dominant factors determing exchange rate regime choice and the exchange rate regime arrangement theory, this paper points out that the fixed peg exchange rate arrangement has achieved success in China since 1994, but facing new environments, there are serious intrinsic deficiencies in it and China does not yet satisfy the requirements for a successful floating exchange rate regime. Thus, establishing RMB exchange rate target zones, in the middle period, is now appropriate for China and this paper in turn comments on the type of the RMB exchange rate target zone. It affirms that it is time for China to change to exchange rate target zone regime from the fixed peg. The Chinese authorities should take active measures to exit from fixed peg regime gradually and moreover, that should be backed by consistent and sustainable macroeconomic policies and relevant structural reforms.
|
