论文标题:出口信用保险对我国出口贸易影响的实证分析
An Empirical Analysis of the Influence on the Export from the Export Credit Insurance
论文作者
论文导师 陶存文,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 对外经济贸易大学,点击次数 108,论文页数 34页File Size753K
2006-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_653058757/
export credit insurance ;export;granger test suggestions
出口信用保险(Export Credit Insurance或“出口信贷保险”)是出口信用保险公司与作为被保险人的出口商之间订立的一种特殊保险。根据该协议,被保险人缴纳保险费,保险人将赔偿出口商因进口商不能按合同规定支付到期的全部或者部分货款的经济损失。它作为一项非赢利的政策性保险业务,由国家财政提供保险准备金,为推动本国的出口贸易、保障出口企业的收汇安全而制定。2001年12月18日,中国出口信用保险公司在北京成立,将中国进出口银行和中国人民保险公司出口信用部的出口信用保险业务,合并成为我国专营的政策性出口信用保险公司,标志着我国出口信用保险发展到了一个新的阶段。本文试图对我国出口信用保险和我国出口贸易之间的关系作出实证性分析。文章首先介绍了出口信用保险的概念,以及国外出口信用保险(以法国和德国为例)的情况,并对我国出口信用保险的发展作了概括性的描述,然后对出口贸易保险和我国出口贸易之间的关系进行了经验性的分析,最后运用我国1989年以来的的出口信用保险额和出口贸易额数据,对二者进行了实证分析。实证分析的要点包括:两组数据的平稳性验证、两组数据关系的协整检验以及最后的因果关系检验,最终得出结论。从结论中看到,实际上出口信用保险并不是出口贸易的GRANGER原因,但是前者依旧对后者有相当的正面影响。作者提出了我国出口信用保险现存的问题,如我国出口信用保险规模不足、保险渗透率太低、出口信用保险缺乏有力地法律支持、部分国内企业风险意识淡薄、对出口信用保险的作用缺乏明确认识、我国出口信用风险评估体系并不完善、我国出口信用保险保险费率偏高和承保方式缺乏灵活性等。最后对解决这些问题提出了健全法律法规、提高风险意识、建立风险评估体系和降低出口信用保险费率等具体建议。
Export credit insurance insures the credit of foreign buyers in international trade and investment, and it is a credit insurance which is marked by the legal rights an export enterprise ought to have. As a non-profiting insurance, export credit insurance is usually funded by the federal government, and is carried out with the purpose of facilitating domestic export and safeguarding the receipt of export revenue. China export and credit insurance corporation was founded in Beijing on 18th December 2001, an combination of the activities of export and import bank of China and people’insurance corporation of China, which is a landmark of China’export credit insurance. This article tries to give an empirical analysis of China’export credit insurance and the foreign trade. Firstly an brief introduction of the concept of export credit insurance and its development in some foreign countries (take France and Germany as examples) is made, also a general description of the development of China’s export credit insurance, then an empirical analysis is made between the export credit insurance and the foreign trade, lastly on the basis of the data of export credit insurance and the export from 1989 on, an empirical analysis is finally made, which includes: the stability testing of the two data, the co integration test between the two data and lastly the Granger test. All of the above leads to the conclusion that in fact export credit insurance does not granger cause export according to the test, while the former still influences the latter to some degree. Finally the current conditions especially the problems of China’s export credit insurance are listed including the lagged development, the lack of legal support, the lack of risk awareness, the incompleteness of the risk assessment system and also the over highly premium rate, according some suggestions are made.
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