论文标题:人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易影响研究
Research on Impact of RMB Exchange Rate to China"s Export Trade
论文作者
论文导师 资树荣,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 世界经济学
论文单位 湘潭大学,点击次数 299,论文页数 58页File Size1601K
2007-05-15论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_664832392/
RMB exchange rate;; export trade;; influence;; positively analyze
任何一个开放经济的国家,其对外经济交易的各个领域,都要受到汇率的影响。在我国资本市场尚未开放的条件下,出口是国际收支中的一个主要项目,对维持国际收支平衡发挥着重要作用。人民币汇率是影响我国出口的一个很重要的因素。自2003年初日本在七国会议明确提出要求“人民币升值”的主张后,以美国为首的一些国家和一些国际机构以各种形式要求人民币升值。它们的理由是,由于人民币币值低估,使得中国的出口产品具有很强的国际竞争力,充斥于世界市场的中国产品对许多国家的工业造成了冲击。然而,人民币汇率的变动对我国的出口贸易究竟能产生多大的影响?人民币汇率升值是否能改善美国、日本等国的贸易收支状况呢?正确理解这些问题具有十分重要的现实意义。 本文首先对相关的理论、研究文献做了简要回顾,并在此基础上,收集1985—2005年的相关数据对人民币汇率变动如何影响我国出口贸易作了实证分析。定量分析方法采取现代计量经济学方法——ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验。首先是对二十几年来我国汇率水平的变动对我国出口贸易总额的影响作实证分析,然后再分别分析人民币汇率变动对我国对美国、日本出口额的影响。 最后,根据实证分析的结果,对人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易的影响进行评论并提出了相应的政策建议。即人民币汇率与我国出口存在长期均衡关系,但人民币汇率对我国出口的影响是非常有限的。在长期中,要促进我国对外出口的发展单单依靠人民币贬值是行不通的。同样,美国和日本试图通过人民币升值来改善其贸易逆差的做法是不合理的。因此,当前我国应消除人民币汇率短期继续升值压力,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定;要有步骤地推进完善人民币汇率形成机制改革;要促进产业结构的调整与升级,提高出口产品技术含量和附加值。
It’s known to all that the exchange rate impacts any country of open economy in every antenna of foreign trade. On basis of the capital market that is not open, the export not only is an important in international income and outcome, but also safeguards the international balance of payment. The RMB exchange rate is a key point that influences the export. On the moment that Japan maintained the RMB appreciation in the 7-country Conference in 2003, the US-led countries and some international organizations were asking the government to appreciate the RMB in various ways. They believe that the underestimated RMB makes China’s exported goods more powerful all over the word resulting in impacting the industries in many countries. Well, whether the RMB exchange rate could influence the China’s exported trade? Whether the RMB appreciation could improve the trade balance in US and Japan? It is significant in understanding these questions. This paper reviews the related theories and documents of the effect of exchange rate on trade balance. And then, this paper collects the related datum from the year of 1985 to 2005 and analyzes how the RMB exchange rate influences the China’s exported trade positively. Quantitative methods include ADF Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. Firstly, I positively analyze the influence of the RMB exchange rate on the China’s exported trade in recent 20 years. Then I study how the RMB exchange rate impacts China, US and Japan respectively. Finally, this paper makes comments on the influence of RMB exchange rate on China’s export and gives some suggestion on the basis of the results of above analysis. As a result, there is a long balance between RMB exchange rate and China’s export, but the RMB exchange rate has little influence on China’s export. In the long run, it’s not practical to improve our foreign trade only to devaluate the RMB. At the same time, it’s irrational to appreciate the RMB asked by US and Japan to alter the trade deficit. Therefore, at present China should keep the RMB exchange rate that will appreciate in a short time out of pressure, keep its stability in a reasonable and balanced position, reform the molding system of RMB step by step, improve the industrial structure, and should enhance the exported goods in technical contents and additional value.
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