论文标题:中国股市波动与政策调控实证分析
Enhance the Management Level & Competitive Ability of Chinese Telecom Construction Enterprises by ERP
论文作者 冯德刚
论文导师 陈野华,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 工商管理
论文单位 西南财经大学,点击次数 119,论文页数 78页File Size298k
2002-04-24论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_676977447/ 股市;波动;监管;调控;市场化
stock;market;fluctuation;supervision;control;marketization
股票市场是指股票发行和买卖的场所，它涉及上市公司、投资者、中介机构、监管者等方面，是一个复杂的经济系统。经过十余年的发展，我国股市从无到有，从当初试点的区域性小市场发展到目前较大规模的全国市场。在这风风雨雨的十余年中，股市曾出现过不少的问题，但总的发展方向是良好的，在国民经济中的地位和作用也越来越重要。监管是股市发展所必需的，是促进股市持续稳定发展的保证。我国的股市监管是随着股市的发展而产生的，其间走过了较为艰难的历程，目前建立了集中式的监管体系。我国股市还处于发展初期，监管者在“规范职能”之外，还肩负着“发展职能”。而我国的新兴市场特性，导致政府对股市的干预性较强，且具有干预的合理性。我国政府直接干预股市源于政府在股票市场中的角色定位，是特殊市场背景下的产物，其兼顾多方利益的行为形成了我国特有的“政策市”，从而使股市的波动突发性强、波动幅度大、频率高。实证分析表明，我国的股市波动多与直接的政策调控相关，为二级市场上较大的系统性风险。随着我国股市的进一步发展，市场日趋成熟，市场监管的行政色彩也将越来越淡，规范化和市场化程度将越来越高。特别是近年来随着市场监管行为及法律体系的不断完善，使我国更多应用法律和经济手段监管市场的基础更为坚实。而从本年度的政府指导思想和监管政策导向中，我们欣喜地看到股市的规范化、市场化步伐正在加快。“有形之手”正逐步走向“无形调控”，从而促进市场的进一步发展和繁荣。股市的波动是构成市场的各方和参与者行为等因素综合影响的结果，要减少股市的波动，使其健康稳定地发展，就必须逐步消除机制上的负面因素，用法律的手段制约和规范股市参与者的行为，而监管行为的市场化则是完成此项使命的有力保证。本文研究的目的就是试图以我国股市大量、翔实的数据资料为基础，对我国股市十余年来的波动原因及由此所引发的各种问题作较为详尽的实证分析，找出影响我国股市波动的原因，对主要原因的产生、变迁作系统性分析，并由此提出相应的建议供决策者参考。本文共分四个部分：第一章主要是对我国股票市场作简要介绍，并对股市与监管作简单论述，阐明股市发展与监管的辩证关系。然后确定衡量股市波动的指标，为后文分析作准备。第二章首先就股市与波动的关系进行阐述，并据实分析股市异常波动的危害。然后采用实证分析的方法，对我国股市十余年来的波动情况作统计研究，从中分析导致我国股市波动的原因。第三章首先论述股市监管的手段，并对我国股市监管的实际情况进行分析，然后采用实证分析的方法，对我国十余年来监管方式的变迁作详细研究，且着重分析2001年以来我国股市监管的法制化、市场化进程。第四章针对构成和影响股市波动的各主要因素，作出系统性建议，以供读者参考。
Stock market is a place where stocks are issued and exchanged. Stock market is a complex economic system, which involves listed companies, investors, intermediate agencies and supervisors.After more than ten years" development, China"s stock market has grown from a small pilot-market to a large-scale one. Although some problems have appeared in the period, the general development tendency of China"s stock market is favorable. The role of stock market in national economy has become more and more important.Supervision, which is essential to the development of the stock market, guarantees the sustaining and stable development of the market. China"s security supervision, growing with the stock market, has experienced a relatively hard course. Like the U.S, China has built a centralized supervision system. At present, China"s stock market is still in its initial stage, hence, the supervisors not only regulate but also develop the stock market. The characteristics of China"s new stock market lead to government"s strong intervention to the market, however, the intervention is reasonable.The role, played by the Chinese government, results in the government"s direct intervention to the stock market, which considers multilateral interests and brings a "policy market" to the stock market. "Policy Market" means the fluctuation of the stock market is very sudden, frequent and furious. The actual analysis indicates that the stock fluctuation of our country is mostly related to the direct policy control, and it is the biggest systematic risk in the secondary market.With the further development of China"s stock market, the stock market has become more and more mature. As a result, the supervision becomes less administrative, but more standard and market. Furthermore, the increasing improvement of the supervision and China"s legal system enable China to have a more stable basis for employment of legal andeconomical means to supervise the stock market. From the government"s guideline and supervision policy of this year, we have delightedly observed the stock market is speeding up its standardization and marketization. The "visible hand" is changing to "invisible control", which will promote the further prosperousness and development of the market.The component factors and participants of the market cause the fluctuation of the stock market. In order to decrease the fluctuation of the stock market to maintain its stable and sound development, passive factors in the system have to be eliminated, legal measures have to be employed to restrict and regulate the participants" behavior. The marketization of the supervision is a strong guarantee of the accomplishment of the task.The research goal of this article is to find out the cause of the fluctuation of the stock market in China, and do a systematic analysis on the occurrence and changes of the cause, then, present some suggestion to the policy makers. The research is based on the detailed and full analysis and accurate statistic.The article consists of four parts:The first chapter makes a brief introduction about China"s stock market and roughly discusses the stock market and the supervision, then explains the relation between the development of the stock market and the supervision. The chapter makes preparation for later discussion by identifying the index used to measure the fluctuation of the stock market.The second chapter first discusses the relation between the stock market and its fluctuation and analyses the harm caused by the abnormal fluctuation in the stock market. Then, positive analysis is employed to research the fluctuation in China"s stock market in the decades, and gets the reasons for the fluctuation.The third chapter firstly discusses the measures used in the supervision and analyzes the actual situation in the supervision to the stock market. Then, positive analysis is employed to detailedly the study the change of the supervision measures, especially, the legalization andmarketization in China"s stock market in. 2
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