论文标题:FDI与区域经济增长关系研究
Study on the Relationship between FDI and the Regional Economic Growth
论文作者
论文导师 祖强,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 区域经济学
论文单位 中共江苏省委党校,点击次数 61,论文页数 58页File Size920K
2006-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_678808017/
the Yangtze River Delta; FDI; Regional Economic; Growth; Countermeasures and Proposals
本文就1990-2005年16年间,长江三角洲地区16个城市利用FDI的情况进行了定性和定量,时间和空间,多维度、全方位的分析。长三角作为我国三大经济圈之一,其致力于打造“全球制造业”基地的发展目标使其成为我国利用外资的最高地。2005年长三角16城市实际FDI总量达到287.8亿美元,占全国总量(603亿美元)的45.7%。 首先,我们对16个城市的FDI总量进行时间维度上的考量,按照总量和变化率的波动将16年划分为五个发展阶段:第一阶段(1990-1993)为高速起步阶段,第二阶段(1994-1997)为稳步调整阶段,第三阶段(1998-2000)为持续走低阶段,第四阶段(2001-2003)为止跌反弹阶段,第五阶段(2004——)为稳中有退阶段。 其次,我们按照总量规模的大小将16个城市划分为五大板块,上海、苏州总量超过200亿美元,为第一板块;无锡、宁波、南京总量在100-200亿美元之间,为第二板块;杭州、常州、南通、镇江总量在50-100亿之间,为第三板块;嘉兴、扬州、绍兴、湖州、泰州总量在10-50亿之间,为第四板块;台州、舟山总量不足10亿,为第五板块。从空间的维度进行考察,得出结论,空间上以上海为分水岭,江苏8市和浙江7市呈现出明显的差异——江苏,尤其是苏南外资对民间资本存在“挤出效应”,而浙江相反,民资对外资存在“挤出效应”。 再次,我们在对FDI与经济增长分别进行了相关性、平稳性和因果关系检验之后,根据结果对选取的变量进行回归分析。得出结论,整体FDI每增加1%,GDP将随之增加0.16%;出口每增加1%,GDP将随之增加0.2%;进口每增加1%,GDP将随之增加0.19%。 最后,在定量定性分析的基础上,结合2005年上半年长三角地区出现的指标滑坡现象,提出相关的对策建议。
In accordance with the FDI of the 16 regions in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2005, this paper makes positive and normative analysis from multiple perspectives of both time and space. As one of the three Economy Zones in China, the Yangtze River Delta is taking up with the objective of Global Base of Manufacture and has been the highland of FDI in China. The real amount of FDI in the 16 regions comes to 28.87 billion dollars, taking up 45.7% of the corresponding amount in the whole country. Firstly, we make analysis on the amount of the FDI in the 16 regions from the perspective of time and plot the period of 16 years into 5 stages in accordance with the amount and the fluctuation of growth rate as follows: the first stage (1990-1993) is the initiating stage with high speed, the second (1994-1997) the stage of steady adjust, the third (1998-2000) the stage of standing decline, the forth (2001-2003) the stage of ceasing dropping and rebounding, the fifth (2004-) the stage of descending with low speed. Secondly, we, according to the scale of amount of FDI, divine the 16 regions into 5 plates as follows: the first one Shanghai and Hangzhou with more than 20 billion dollars; the second one Wuxi, Ningbo and Nanjing with the amount between 10 and 20 billion dollars; the third one Hangzhou, Changzhou, Nantong and Zhenjiang with the
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