论文标题:人民币升值对上海市出口的影响分析
The Effect of Renminbi"s Appreciation on Shanghai"s Exports
论文作者
论文导师 叶耀明,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国际贸易学
论文单位 同济大学,点击次数 140,论文页数 68页File Size3921K
2006-12-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_705595737/
Appreciation; nominal exchange rate; real effective exchange; effect on export
近年来人民币一直处于升值的压力下。在多种因素的影响下，2005年以来人民币有了小幅度的升值，出口企业将面临怎样的影响备受瞩目。上海市作为中国的一个重要经济城市，其经济外向程度高，人民币升值对其出口有直接影响。本文着重研究人民币升值对上海市出口的影响，研究上海市的出口是否受到人民币汇率提高的影响，并且分析汇率提高对不同贸易方式出口的差别影响，由此得出结论。 基于上述思路，本文先研究人民币升值对上海市整体出口的影响，得出的结论是人民币升值对上海市的出口影响不大。然后根据不同贸易方式出口的特点，分别研究人民币升值对其出口的不同影响，并进行比较。得出结论：人民币升值对上海市不同贸易方式出口的影响有差别，但是影响程度都不大。最后分析产生影响的途径，并给出政策建议。本文采取线性回归方法，分析汇率提高对上海市整体出口的影响程度，继而采取相关分析方法分析汇率提高对不同贸易方式出口的影响大小。 汇率主要有两种表示方法：名义汇率和实际有效汇率。由于这两种汇率表示方法所考虑的因素不同，因此其数值有一定的区别。本文的创新在于选取上海市这个典型的经济区域的出口为对象进行研究，并且在讨论过程中，分别研究两种汇率提高对上海市出口的影响，并且将其影响进行比较分析。
In recent years, renminbi has always been under the pressure of appreciation. Since 2005, driven by the pressures, renminbi has appreciated for a small range, and what will affect the exporting companies attracts lots of attentions. As one of the most important economic cities, Shanghai is opening up to the outside, so the appreciation will have a direct effect on the export of Shanghai. This article will study whether the export of Shanghai will be affected by the appreciation and the different effect of the appreciation on different industries.Based on the thought, this article will first research the effect of appreciation on the export as a whole of Shanghai, and it finds that the effect is small. Then according to the specialties of different industries, it will study the different effects of appreciation on different industries, and compare them. It finds that: The appreciation of renminbi will has different effects on different industries, but either is very small. At last, it will analysis how does the effects arise and gives some advise. The article will use a linear regression method to analysis the effect of appreciation on the whole export and use a relevance of analytical methods to analysis the effect of appreciation on different industries.There are mainly two methods to express the exchange rates: nominal exchange rate and real effective exchange, and there are some different between them. This article first studies the exports of Shanghai, a typical economic region, as its target. During its study process, it studies appreciation effects of the two different exchange rates on the export of Shanghai, and compares the different effects.
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