论文标题:中国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究
The Empirical Study of Relationship between the Development of Finance and the Growth of Economics
论文作者
论文导师 赵振全,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 数量经济学
论文单位 吉林大学,点击次数 199,论文页数 57页File Size446K
2006-04-25论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_741852772/
对于最大发展中国家的中国,在金融体制改革和经济结构调整的关键时期,金融发展和经济增长之间存在着怎样的依存关系?我国的金融发展与金融结构对于经济结构的优化和升级又发挥着怎样的作用?本文从实证分析的角度对中国金融与经济增长的关系作以研究,以期对上述问题作出初步的回答。 本文通过构造合适的金融发展与经济增长变量,建立VAR模型,在此基础上对金融与经济增长关系进行协整分析、脉冲响应和方差分解分析,从定量角度分析其相互影响。通过对我国1998年到2005年的金融指标与经济增长指标的动态关系进行实证研究,得到的结论是:我国金融化程度和金融结构变动对经济整体增长的影响较为微弱,;金融化程度的提高对经济结构的调整具有正面积极作用;经济整体增长和经济结构调整对于金融结构变动有显著的影响。这一结论在随后的Granger因果检验中进一步得到验证。
History of the modern world economic development is the history of the development of financial Financial institutions, financial markets, financial products and other financial factors in the economy increasingly occupy an important position.Economic and financial, has become an inevitable trend of economic development of countries. Existing extensive literature studies show that financial development is an important factor in economic growth,and it seems to be obviousthat financial development and economic growth is the level of relevance. And the upgrading of the financial structure not only is an important channel for financial development and economic structural upgrading but also economic conditions necessary to achieve optimal growth. This conclusion in the course of the economic life of Western developed countries have been verified. Then as the largest developing country in China, how is the interdependence between financial development and economic growth , and is China"s financial development and financial structure also playing a role for the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure ? This paper contains the two parts of both theoretical and empirical research on these issues. In the first chapter we first try to sum up the study of financial development and economic growth abroad and a brief analysis of the status of the development of China"s financial system..There is many study about this aspect abroad. Patrick (1966) on the relationship between financial development and economic growth perspective into two categories with supply-and demand; Merton (1995) and Ross (1997), Pagano (1993), King and Levine (1993) and others from different perspective studied on the role of economic growth in the financial channels.Tow views exists: the financial architecture and financial constraints. The research of financial architecture focused on finding a suitable conomic of financial structure for the economic growth, and financial constraints is a theory of financial liberalization. The relationship of financial development and economic growth is a hot spot in empirical analysis; Another hot spot is the financial development and economic growth causation analysis. Domestic concerns on this empirical research focused on China"s financial development and the relationship between economic growth, Few on the financial structure and the relationship between empirical studies of economic growth. The second chapter first analyses the role of financial development for economic growth, Mainly to lower risk, lower cost of information to improve
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