论文标题:中国货币供应与经济增长关系研究
Research on the Relationship Between Money Supply and Economic Growth
论文作者 章泽武
论文导师 周军,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 产业经济学
论文单位 武汉理工大学,点击次数 95,论文页数 76页File Size3935k
2002-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_762320667/ 经济增长;货币供应;相关性;回归分析
Economic growth;Money supply;Correlation;Regression analysis
货币因素在经济增长中的作用，是货币经济增长理论产生以来，理论界关注的焦点之一。在货币经济理论产生以前的实物经济增长理论中，往往只有实物资产一种形式，而完全排除了货币金融资产。为了弥补经济增长理论的这一缺陷，西方经济学界出现了货币经济增长理论，该理论认为，在经济增长过程中，货币是非中性的，货币的引入会改变均衡增长路径；一旦货币收入对人们的消费和储蓄产生持久性的影响，货币供给这一短期经济变量就会对长期经济增长产生实质性的作用。 在我国理论界，对货币和经济增长之间的关系长期存在着不同观点，尽管这种分歧表面上看是货币供给和经济增长之间的因果关系之争，其实质是对货币在经济中如何发挥作用之争。为了澄清这方面的问题，本文对1953年至2001年中国货币供应波动周期和经济增长波动周期的周期、波长、波动趋势和波幅进行了对比研究，发现在整个48年间，按波幅超过10％的标准计量，经济增长和货币波动都可分为六个周期，并在周期、波动趋势和波幅上呈现出一定的对应性，且货币波动周期呈现出滞后经济周期的特性。为了更好地揭示货币供应和经济增长之间的因果关系，在进一步研究1953年至2001年货币增长与经济增长之间的相关性(相关系数为0．46)的基础上，给出了在整个48年间经济增长是因、货币供应是果成立，货币供应是因、经济增长是果不成立的回归分析。由于该结论以弱相关为回归分析基础，因而这一结论缺乏足够的说服力。考虑到制度变化的影响，本文将这48年分为计划经济时期、有计划的商品经济时期和加速市场化时期三个阶段，对每一时期经济增长和货币供应的因果关系重新进行了相关分析和回归验证，得出了阶段性因果关系的结论。并从货币供应控制、资本形成和货币化进程的角度给出了产生阶段性因果关系的解释。 在上述分析的基础上，本文还提出了经济增长中的货币供应建议，即实行单一规则下的货币目标区间控制。
The relationship between money factor and economic growth is considered as one of the most challenging subjects in contemporary economics. There is only one form of all assets before monetary theory generated. In order to compensate the flaw, some of economists raise the monetary theory of economic growth. They regard that during the course of economic growth, money be able to affect the degree of economic growth once the income of money eventually influences consume and saving.,In the economical theory field of our country, there are have different ideas. From the appearance, the diverge come from the outcome that who is the reason and who is the result. In fact, the difference is the how to expert the function of money. To get the truth and integrate the different ideas, by studying the statistics from 1953 to 2001,there have a conclusion that the length and the trend of period are similar. During the 48 years, by the standard of 10%, there are six periods to money supply and economic growth and the periods are correspondence, especially the period of money lag the period of economic growth one year. To fully reveal the relationship between money supply and economic growth, we carry on the regression analysis based on the correlation coefficient, regression analysis prove the hypothesis that the wave motion of monetary is the result of the fluctuating of economic growth. If we think about the change of the economic mechanism, the development of the relationship goes through three stages. In the three stages, reason and result are unfixed. The differences of the controlling of money supply and the forming of the principal and the development can express the reason.Based on the above analysis, there is an advice that the government should carry out and insist on a consistent rule of money supply all the time. The increase rate of money supply ought to be respectively confined to a reasonable objective scope.
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