论文标题:我国汇率制度的选择方向
Findings Report on a Harbor Project for Long-term Financing
论文作者 李宁达
论文导师 林擎国,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国民经济学
论文单位 厦门大学,点击次数 1107,论文页数 52页File Size2724k
2002-04-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_765647/ 汇率制度;货币同盟;单一货币
project loan; investigation; assessment.
一个国家或地区的汇率制度是和该国或该地区的经济形势紧密联系在一起的，中国大陆从1978年实行改革开放的政策，经过二十几年的发展，逐渐形成了以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度，并且只在经常项目上实现自由可兑换，而对于资本项目仍实行严格的管制。可以说，我国现行的汇率制度基本上反映了我国目前经济发展现状。2001年11月，我国大陆和台湾地区双双成为世界贸易组织(WTO)的正式成员，这不仅意味着中国即将以更加积极的姿态参与世界经济的合作和国际金融领域的全球化进程，而且也意味着我国即将迎来国外游资对国内金融秩序的冲击，毕竟参与国际经济循环所获得的收益是与金融全球化风险相伴而生的。在这种国内外的金融形势背景下，研究选择什么样的汇率制度将是一个很有意义的重大课题。2002年3月份，在欧洲的奥地利、法国、德国等12个国家中开始全面流通欧元，欧洲货币联盟在实践蒙代尔的“最适度通货区域”理论方面取得的巨大成功给我国汇率制度的发展指明了方向。因为目前在我国同时流通人民币、港币、澳门元和新台币四种货币，从目前两岸三地的经贸往来看，将来很有可能在中国领土上建立一个类似于欧洲货币同盟的最适度通货区域，进而流通统一的货币--中国元。本文旨在透过国际货币体系的发展演变过程，以及部分国家在汇率制度改革方面的经验教训，寻找我国汇率制度的发展趋势，探索一条适合中国经济发展方向和中华民族整体利益的道路。
F#. S# harbor on the westem coast of Xiaxnen island which was gOing tobuild two l0,0004on harbors was one of the main Proects of Xiamen in l999.The total investInent of the Proect was RMB3.6 billion, and it needed RMBl.2billion financing besides USDl5 million foreign gOvennnent loan the prOject hadgained. I took part in the investigation of the prOject for the long-term financing.My findings rePOrt was provided as a reference tO the decision maker for the loan.After investigaing and analyZing Xiamen POrt"s Presen sitUaion, hinterland,handling caPacity, the prOject"s natUral condition and financial benefit, we got thefollowing resuIts"This project which is next to Dongdu Port is conveniently connected to rail,road, and air transportation. Since during the last decade the volume of freighthandled of Xiamen Port was higher than the handling caPacity, new harbor wasneeded building to fi1l the gaP in handling capacity, this Proect was marketable.And its natUral condition was suitable to build a harbor. After calculation, we gotthe result that the net present value (NPV) was a positive number, the intemal rateof retum (IRR) was higher than the weighted-average cost of caPital (WACC), theinvestment payback period was l l.7 years, the discoamed payback period wasl 7.2 years, the payback period of foreign govenunent loan was 7.l years, and thepayback period of meB loan was 8.2 years. The sensitivity anaIysis showed thatthe project was sensitive to the sales. And the break-even analysis showed that theproject could bear risk to some extend. So we concluded that if the project couldbe cwhed out and rtm smoothly, it would produce enough cash flow to pay off theloan.At the same time, we noticed that the Iax was lower than the loan interest,and the WACC might go up if the investor could not satisfy the foreign%&JW R ffatghWfiffisgovenunent loan condition, and the policy of the Free Trade Zone where theprOject is located might easily affect the trade volume of the project.As the project loan was long term and subject to kinds of risks, it was safe forthe loaner to note the uncertainties, and we suggested the loaner to take suchmethods as noting Whther the investOr can satisfy the fOreign gOvenunent loancondition and extend the project"s goods source from duty free goods tO both dutyfree and duty paid goods, the investor"s caPacity tO nm the harbo, the nearbyWr"s competition for the source of goods, and making sure the cash flow of theharbor will be used tO pay the loan, and raising a mOrtgag on the project.
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