论文标题:当前农村金融的博弈分析
The Analysis of the Current Farm Finance by Game Theory
论文作者 贾愚
论文导师 额尔敦扎布,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 政治经济学
论文单位 内蒙古师范大学,点击次数 28,论文页数 53页File Size2289k
2004-04-20论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_789258092/ 农村金融; 博弈; 均衡
farm finance , game , equilibrium
在现代社会，金融部门对经济发展起着无可替代的重要作用，金融部门已逐渐成为现代经济活动的信息中心和国家实施宏观调控的重要途径。尽管金融发展对于整个国民经济增长和个人生活的改善都有着不可比拟的极大帮助，但遗憾的是，在许多发展中国家，金融部门的发展却常常受到压制，金融与经济增长之间的互动关系被人为地阻断或扭曲。发展中国家人为地压低利率，导致金融资源的信用配给，由于发展中国家政府的“二元偏好”，农村地区和传统部门往往得不到这种金融资源的配给，城市现代化的大银行及其分支机构与落后、传统的钱庄、高利贷等组织并存，农村金融市场极不发达，农村资金供给严重不足，难以和土地资源和丰富的劳力资源相结合创造出更多的财富，制约了农村经济的发展，甚至造成农村经济的凋敝。 农业的弱质性决定了其在市场下融资的高成本，农民难以接受。而由政府组织的外部资金往往偏向中上层融资，又因为是外部资金，必然存在回收率低下的问题，金融机构难以实现持续性和自立性的目标。鉴于以上两点，本文认为农村金融领域的合作制既能有效地抵御激烈的市场竞争给农业造成的冲击，降低融资成本，又能解决外部资金注入的低效率状况，合作金融组织可以有效地聚集、留住农村内部资金为自己服务，互助自救。发达国家的经验表明，即使是在将来发达的市场情况下，合作制依然是有效的组织形式。本文认为合作制固然好，但是农村金融的道路选择是政府与农民之间博弈的结果，由于博弈局中人各自不同的策略选择，导致了现实中农村金融领域的低效率均衡，进而本文运用博弈的理论分析了其产生的原因和导向最优均衡的办法。因此，本文倡导从长远着眼，坚定农村金融长期走合作制的信念，逐渐培育、建立真正意义的农村合作金融组织。文章分四部分论述。第一部分简述了当代农村金融理论及农村金融市场发展的评价标准;第二部分描述了中国农村金融的现状;第三部分从博弈的角度分析了农村金融的现状和途径及难以导向帕累托最优均衡的原因和解决办法;第四部分结合合作理论和发达国家的合作经验，倡导创建真正意义的农村合作金融，放弃现有的农村信用社体制。
The analysis of the current farm finance by game theoryIn modern society, financial department is playing a significant role. Financial department has gradually become an information center of modern economic activities and a channel through which governments carry out their policy of macro economy. Although finance"s development will benefit the GDP and individual living condition greatly, it is regretful that in many developing countries the development of financial department is always restrained, and that the mutual connection between finance and economy is also cut deliberately. In many developing countries, since the interest rate is reduced deliberately, there is a rationed credit. As a result of these governments" preference of dualism, countryside and traditional departments can not actually get these financial resources. Modern banks in cities and traditional usury coexist. Farm financial market goes backward. In the country, shortly supplied farm funds can not fully combine with the abundant land resources and labor resources to produce more wealth, all of that lead to the farming recession.The agricultural disadvantages in market economy lead to its high cost of circulating funds. Outside funds for country raised by government frequently flow out of country and are inefficient. This thesis believes that the cooperative financial groups not only resist the impact from fierce competition for market, but also overcome the inefficiency accompanied with the outside funds. Cooperative financial groups may efficiently pool inside funds to serve farmers themselves. The experience from many developed countries suggests that the cooperative economy would be efficient, even if in future we would have accomplished the market economy reform. Therefore, this thesis proposes that we should hold the country cooperative finance in long way and develop the real country cooperative financial groups. There are four parts in this thesis. The first part concisely introduces current farm finance theory and its evaluation criterion. The second part describes the present situation of Chinese farm finance. The third part, by game theory, analyses the present situation and way of farm finance as well settlements to deviation from Pareto optimality. The last part proposes to found the real country cooperative financial group, combined with cooperative theory and experience from developed countries, instead of present farm cooperative.
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