论文标题:期权理论及其在石油企业经营管理中的应用研究
Study on Options Theory and Its Application in the Management of the Petroleum Enterprise
论文作者 曹艳
论文导师 刘永建；孙彦彬,论文学位 博士,论文专业 油气田开发工程
论文单位 大庆石油学院,点击次数 86,论文页数 126页File Size8423k
2004-05-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_845223127/ 石油企业,风险管理,期权理论,套期保值,实物期权,不确定性,投资决策,激励机制
petroleum enterprise, risk management, options theory, hedge, real options, uncertainty, investment decision, stimulation mechanism
期权理论在国外是研究的热点，但在国内石油企业其相关的研究并不多见。本文结合石油企业中存在的经营风险、投资决策风险和人力资源管理风险等实际问题，针对期权理论在石油企业经营管理中的应用进行了深入研究，在此基础上提出了解决石油企业经营管理中各类风险问题的相应办法。 本文深入研究了我国石油企业恢复、建立与国际石油市场接轨的石油期货市场和期权市场的可行性和必要性，在此基础上提出了将金融衍生工具运用到现代石油企业经营和风险管理中的产融结合经营模式的构想。本文认为金融衍生工具在价格风险管理中具有很大的灵活性和可操作性，所以要充分利用各种金融衍生工具的套期保值功能使经营风险降到最低。随着我国石油企业的发展和市场化的不断深入，鉴于国际石油期货交易和国内期货市场发展的示范效应，以及期权与其他金融衍生工具相比具有的风险收益不对称等特点，本文提出在建立石油期货市场的基础上，应该加快建立石油期权市场的构想。 本文针对目前投资决策方法的不足，在充分考虑到影响投资决策的三个因素即经营灵活性、战略灵活性和竞争性的基础上，首次归纳总结出在考虑实物期权情况下的投资决策评价方法选择树。本文在石油勘探开发领域中引入实物期权方法，根据石油行业具有的时滞性、分阶段投资等特点，提出更适合于石油勘探开发投资实际情况的复合实物期权模型，进一步发展和完善了石油行业的投资决策和价值评估方法。 本文应用期权理论，提出了在石油企业建立灵活决策机制的构想。本文认为应根据变化了的经济背景条件，评价勘探开发项目可能的收益和损失、调整勘探和开发部署，灵活利用市场中的不确定性，在最大控制风险的同时，又不丧失可能出现的获利机会。考虑到石油开发投资项目中的延迟期权，开发投资项目的决策思路从“现在开发或不开发”转变为“现在执行期权或是继续持有期权”，决策的重点在于评估项目所具有的实物期权价值，并可确定最佳的项目投资时机，从而妥善地解决项目投资决策问题。 借鉴国外股票期权激励机制的研究成果和经验，结合我国石油企业的实际情况，本文建议将石油企业中的核心技术人才纳入激励范围，建立良性运转的激励约束制度，这对长期有效地激励、吸引和稳定人才是至关重要的。引入股票期权激励机制对进一步提高石油企业现行激励机制的职能实属必要，并且在选择激励对象时不应只局限于高层管理者，应制定多样化、多层次的激励制度。 本文首次对比分析了引入实物期权前后，互斥方案选择标准的变化。通过案例验证并说明了采用传统方法和实物期权方法制定投资决策时会得到不同的结论。文中使用复合实物期权方法解决了石油勘探开发投资问题，还结合实物期权定价模型的评价参数，深入进行了敏感性分析，也用实物期权方法评估了石油储量资产价值和石油公司收购价格。 本文的研究成果丰富和发展了期权理论，对进一步提高我国石油企业的经营管理水平具有指导意义和广阔的应用前景。
Options theory is a hot point in the external study field, few related systematic study in the internal petroleum enterprise, was reported. Considered the practical risk problems of management, investment decision and human resource management exited in the petroleum enterprise, the application of options theory in the management of the petroleum enterprise was studied deeply in this paper. The solutions of the risk problems of the petroleum enterprise were put forward based on the study.The feasibility and necessary of renewing petroleum futures markets and building up options markets which got along with international petroleum markets was studied deeply, according to the study the industry-financial management pattern which applied financial derivatives to the risk management of the modern petroleum enterprise was put forward. It was considered fully that financial derivatives tools had great flexibility and maneuverability in the risk management of price, in order to reduce the management risk to the least the hedge of financial derivatives should be used sufficiently. With the developing of Chinese petroleum industry and the continuous deepgoing of markets and the demonstrations of international petroleum futures and domestic futures trade, options has the asymmetry characteristic between risk and gains, the thought which should build up petroleum options markets quickly based on the establishment of petroleum futures markets was put forward.Because of the shortage of the current investment decision methods, on the basis of fully considering three factors, that is, management flexibility, strategic flexibility and competition which influence the investment decision, the method tree of the investment decision analysis which considered real options was summarized for the first time in this paper. Real options method was introduced to the petroleum exploration and development sphere in this paper, based on the characteristic of the petroleum industry, for example the time lag and multi-stage investment, compound real options model, which was more suitable for the situation of petroleum exploration and development, was suggested. Investment decision and evaluation methods in the petroleum industry were developed and enriched further.Using real options theory, the idea of building up the flexible decision mechanism in the petroleum enterprise was put forward. It was considered that as the economic background changed, the possible profit and loss of the exploration and development projects should be valued again and the deploying of exploration and development should be adjusted, the uncertainty of market can be used flexibly, without lossing the possible chance of gaining profit, while the risk could be controlled to a great extent. When considering the deferral options in the investment project of the petroleum development, investment decision of the development project changes from "developing now or not" to "exercising the options now or holding", the value of real options among the project is the decision keystone, the optimal time to investment also can be decided, this can solve the investment decision problem properly.Drawing on the results and experience of the foreign options stimulation mechanism and combining the practice of Chinese petroleum enterprise, the suggestion that key technical talent should be included in the stimulation scope was put forward. It was considered that in order to stimulate, attract and stabilize the talent efficiently for a long time, it was important to build up a good stimulation and restriction mechanism. It is necessary to introduce the options stimulation mechanism to improve further the current stimulation mechanism of the petroleum enterprise, and when choosing the stimulation object, besides the managers others should be considered, a diversification stimulation system should be established.The application effect of real options was evaluated for the first time during the determination of selective criterion about the mutually exclusive projects. It was validat
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