论文标题:当前我国汇率制度的改革研究
The Research on the Reform of China"s Current Exchange Rate Regime
论文作者 卓沛
论文导师 王云,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 国民经济学
论文单位 四川大学,点击次数 102,论文页数 61页File Size2812k
2004-04-30论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_911565182/ 汇率制度改革;钉住美元制;汇率目标区
Reform of Exchange Rate Regime ; Peg to The Dollar;Target Zones
理想的汇率制度能够促进国际贸易和国际资本流动。1994年外汇体制改革以后，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制。但是，1995年末至今人民币对美元汇率位于8.33-8.28元／美元的窄幅区域，人民币管理浮动汇率已成为事实上的单一钉住美元的固定汇率制。这一安排是通过资本管制和中央银行对外汇市场的频繁干预实现的。人民币钉住美元制和资本管制的结合对吸引外资和促进出口是有利的，但同时削弱了货币政策的效力，降低了人民币汇率生成机制的市场化程度。从长远来看，在中国资本帐户逐渐走向开放的情况下，维持单一钉住美元制会越来越困难，成本也会越来越高，对我国的汇率制度进行改革已迫在眉睫。本论文以中国现阶段实行的汇率制度为研究对象，从中国经济发展的现状、固定汇率制度的优劣、不同汇率制度间的比较等方面来分析我国汇率制度改革的必要性，并对具体的改革方向提出相应的对策。 本文共分四章，基本结构如下： 第一章阐述汇率政策理论，主要论述了汇率确定的内在机制和外部影响因素，及汇率制度安排所考虑的因素。 第二章介绍我国汇率制度的现状，首先介绍了人民币汇率制度的演变，其次介绍了现行汇率制度的主要内容和基本框架，并对现行汇率制度作出总体评述。 第三章系统分析了我国现行汇率制度存在的问题，主要论述了目前的汇率制度对我国货币政策有效性的制约及在资本项目管制放宽条件下对经济发展产生的成本效应，指出当前汇率制度已经不适宜我国金融开放的需要，汇率制度的改革势在必行。 第四章针对我国的现实情况，从改进汇率形成机制、不同政策的配合、完善资本项目管理等方面提出我国汇率制度改革的方向和措施。 本文力求在以下方面做到创新:一是在提出汇率制度改革的对策时从多个角度进行考虑，并对学术界的不同意见进行比较研究，在此基础上形成一套相对全面和完善的改革措施;二是在分析汇率目标区理论时，并没有把它作为一种独立的汇率制度，而是借鉴它的优点来完善有管理的浮动汇率制度。 本论文由于作者知识水平的限制还存在许多的不足，例如，对人民币基础均衡汇率如何确定的问题研究不够深入，在完善资本项目管理的问题上分析的不够充分。我定当在今后的研究中不断深入和完善。关键词:汇率制度改革钉住美元制汇率目标区
A perfect exchange rate regime can promote international trade and the flow of capital. Since the reform of the exchange rate of china in 1994, china began to practice the managed floating exchange rate regime based on the supply and demand in market. But from the end of 1995 to now, China"s exchange rate regime has been a actual fixed exchange rate regime unitary peg to the dollar. This arrangement is achieved by capital control and the frequently interfere of the central bank to the foreign exchange market. The unite of the fixed exchange rate regime peg to the dollar and the capital control is beneficial to attract foreign capital and promote export, but it at the same time weakens the effects of the money policies and is disadvantageous of the RMB exchange rate mechanism formed by the market. As China beginning to open the capital account, it will be more harder to stick to the fixed exchange rate regime peg to the dollar, and urgent to reform China"s current exchange rate regime. Based on the specific state of China, through comparing the merits and shortcomings of the fixed exchange rate regime, the paper analyzes the necessity of reforming the current exchange rate regime, and advances specific suggestions on how to reform.The basic structure of the paper is as following:The first chapter elaborates the exchange rate policies theory, mainly discusses the interior and exterior factors of deciding exchange rate and the factors considered on which exchange rate regime should be adopted.The second chapter introduces the specific state of China, firstly discusses the evolution of the exchange rate regime of China, then discusses the main content and fundamental framework of the current exchange rate regime, and comments overall the current exchange rate regime.The third chapter systematically analyzes the defects of the current exchange rate regime of China, mainly discusses that the current exchange rate regime weaken the effects of the money policies and results in cost on the development of economics, and points out that the current exchange rate regime is not suitable to the background of open the capital account, so it is necessary to reform it.The fourth chapter , based on the specific state of China, proposes some suggestions on how to reform the current exchange rate regime.The paper tries to bring forth new idears as following: fisrt, to advance the steps on how to reform the current exchange rate regime, the paper considers at full points of view, and compares the different opinions of the cademic circles, at last summarizes a set of reform steps comparable consummate; second, instead of considering the target zones regime as a independent regime, the paper use its advantage to consummate the managed floating exchange rate regime.Because of the limited knowledge of the author, for example, the research on how to decide equilibrium real exchange rate is not thorough, the insufficient analysis of consummating the management of the capital items, this paper is far from perfect. I will try my best to consummate it in the continuous research.
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